Week 2 SNF Showdown

General Rule for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups

1. Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
2. On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spread his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
3. On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
4. Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
5. Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrates on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
6. DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
7. When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.

Captain/MVP

The Seahawks have a very concentrated offense, with the targets are going to mostly go to Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. They combined for just under half of the total targets last week and I don’t see that changing from week-to-week. I like them both as potential captains, but I’d guess DK Metcalf will see Stephon Gilmore more than Lockett so I’ll lean Lockett between the two. Chris Carson looked great against the Falcons, but according to our expected points metric actually got a bit lucky, scoring 11.5 points over expectation based on his number and location of touches. He played less than half the Seahawks’ RB snaps and the Patriots looked stout against the Dolphins’ rushing attack. Despite that, I’ll still say he should be part of your 1.5x spot due to his goal line and receiving involvement.

This could be a game in which we target a quarterback in the captain spot on DraftKings (they’re always viable on FanDuel). Normally, the scoring system dictates a RB or WR captain because of the bonuses and PPR scoring, but when you have two signal callers that can tack on fantasy points with their feet and score rushing touchdowns. Russell Wilson’s rushing prowess can put him in the captain spot. The Seahawks are apparently ready to turn him loose and “let Russ cook.” He’s my favorite FanDuel MVP and, as I mentioned, has the skillset to sneak into the DraftKings captain as well. Additionally, the Patriots aren’t going to be a volume passing team and they also deploy a platoon of running backs. If last week was any indication, it looks like the Patriots want to be slow and methodical with this year’s team, ranking last in pace and only throwing the ball 19 times. Cam Newton can be slotted in as captain with two different strategies. If Newton does most of his damage on the ground, we don’t need to stack multiple pieces with him as rushing touchdowns doesn’t bring any teammates along with him. Or there is always the chance he does throw a few touchdowns to multiple pass-catchers. Newton locked on to Julian Edelman when the Patriots did throw the ball. If the Patriots get behind early and need to throw more than they plan, I can see Edelman pushing double-digit targets.

Flex

It’s really hard to trust the Patriots running backs going forward after four of them split up 26 carries in Week 1. Sony Michel still looks to be the preferred choice at the goal line as he’s the only back to carry the ball inside the five. I like Michel more on FanDuel where touchdown equity is more important. James White is more valuable on DraftKings with his reception upside. Rex Burkhead could always luck into some touchdown variance as he did see almost as many carries as Michel. Carlos Hyde got the goal-line work last week, but I don’t think we can be sure the split we saw against the Falcons is the Seahawks' every week plan. At the point Hyde scored, the Seahawks had the game in hand. He’s in the same boat as Michel for me, a better play on FanDuel because of the potential touchdown upside.

N’Keal Harry played 80% of the Patriots’ offensive snaps and saw just one fewer target than Edelman (6). While Harry is in play, especially at his price, I think Damiere Byrd is a sneaky play. He out-snapped Harry and Edelman, playing 88% of the Patriots’ snaps, but failed to be targeted by Cam. I can’t imagine Byrd playing nearly every snap for a second week in a row and not being targeted. The box score makes it look like Byrd didn’t even step on the field, so he could be the under-owned gem we need. Ryan Izzo played all but one snap and was the only tight end to be targeted in Week 1. At his price, he could be in the optimal lineup if he lucks into a goal-line touchdown. I was going to suggest a potential pivot to Devin Asiasi, but he’s oddly almost triple the price of Izzo, so I’ll stay away there.

Greg Olsen ran in front of Will Dissly playing 66% of snaps to Dissly’s 40%. The problem is Olsen is too expensive for his projected usage. He could miss out on hitting value even with a touchdown. Of the ancillary pass-catchers, I like David Moore the best. He had two red-zone targets and was a shoestring tackle from scoring, which would probably have bumped his price and ownership up if he cashed in. I could easily see Moore being on the receiving end of a touchdown this week in lieu of a Seahawks’ tight end. If Phillip Dorsett is out again this week, the Seahawks will again trot out Freddie Swain at WR4, while he’s not going to command a notable target share, at $200 on DraftKings, a 3-30 line could put him in the optimal lineup by allowing you to roster an extra stud.

While I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a bunch of points in this game, it has the feel of a slugfest to me. That would be the kickers and defenses squarely in play. I wouldn’t play more than two combined K/DSTs, however two or three field goals can outpace some of the tertiary options that will only see three or four opportunities in this one.

Sample Lineup Starters

Shootout

Captain/MVP: Tyler Lockett (Russell Wilson on FanDuel)

Flex: Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, James White

Slugfest

Captain/MVP: DK Metcalf

Flex: Julian Edelman, Seahawks DST, Nick Folk

Seahawks Blowout

Captain/MVP: Russell Wilson

Flex: Tyler Locket, David Moore, Julian Edelman

Vegas Projected Game Script

Captain/MVP: Chris Carson

Flex: Russell WIlson, Cam Newton, Damiere Byrd