General Rule for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
- Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
- On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spread his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
- On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
- Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
- Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrates on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
- DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
- When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain/MVP
There are some issues in this game that we will have to be aware of in terms of injuries and rest. Jalen Hurts has a chance to be pulled in this game or rest right from the start. Of course, it will be better to know beforehand, but if Hurts is active I think it makes sense to be underweight or even full fade him. That would most likely bring Nate Sudfeld into the picture and a decent pay down option at captain if we know beforehand he’ll play. I don’t even mind rostering him on a few flier teams hoping he gets three quarters of work. Boston Scott will get a huge workload with Miles Sanders out and since he is priced as a punt, it may be reasonable to just lock Scott into the captain spot. Zach Ertz could also be in danger of being rested, but if he’s active I think he makes a lot of sense at his current price.
Washington has everything to play for so we know a bit more about their intentions. Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson, though banged up will play. I would shy away from them as captains because I think they’ll be a bit ineffective. Gibson makes a lot of sense in WFT lopsided win lineups. I also think J.D. McKissic and Logan Thomas are really nice floor and ceiling plays. Both have seen monster target shares over the last few weeks. McKissic is coming off two straight 10-target games and Thomas has 28 targets in his last two games.
Flex
Alex Smith - It’s very rare that an optimal lineup doesn’t include a quarterback but tonight may be the night. That said I like Smith because I’m not sure how effective Gibson will be so they may rely on the short passing game
Cam Sims - Would likely see a bump in targets if McLaurin is playing through some pain. He has 17 targets over the last two weeks.
Steven Sims - Less appealing than Cam with McLaurin active but worth a flier in case McLaurin is limited. Plus he’s extremely cheap.
Jalen Reagor - Reagor has 15 targets over the last two games and has the big-play ability. If you are playing Hurts and hoping he plays the entire game Reagor makes a nice pairing.
Greg Ward - Ward is decent floor play if Sudfeld is in the game as he could be using his safety valves a bit more than Hurts would. I like pairing him with Sudfeld and Reagor with Hurts
Richard Rodgers - Rodgers could be a huge benefactor if Ertz is out or if he is limited. Rodgers had a few games in the middle of the season which he was productive and could be the only tight end out there tonight.
Quez Watkins - Watkins has flashed on single plays and with the Eagles potentially using a bigger rotation of second-string players, he is a nice last man in option.
Corey Clement - A pivot off what should be Scott chalk
Travis Fulgham - Could have a bounce-back game with a bit more snaps with the tight ends off the field. Fulgham had some monster games in the middle of the season and could be a feature player depending on how they choose to go about playing receivers in this game. I like pairing him up with Sudfeld.
Lineup Construction Notes
I think it makes sense to go heavy WFT on your rosters because they are playing for the division and need to win. It’s much more predictable that guys like Logan Thomas, McKissic, Smith, McLaurin, and Gibson will be playing full snaps as long as they don’t get injured. The Eagles rotation could be all over the place. I do think we can play an Eagle in the captain spot, however. They are very cheap and a guy like Boston Scott could have a monster game for very little price. Scott, Ertz, Rodgers, Clement all are viable captains. From there you can jam in WFT studs.
Lineup Starters
Captain: Boston Scott
Flex: Alex Smith, Logan Thomas, JD McKissic
Captain: JD McKissic
Flex: Boston Scott, Alex Smith, Zach Ertz
Captain: Zach Ertz
Flex: Corey Clement, Terry McLaurin, Alex Smith
Captain: Logan Thomas
Flex: Boston Scott, Alex Smith, Cam Sims
