General Rule for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
- Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
- On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spread his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
- On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
- Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
- Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrates on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
- DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
- When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain/Flex
The Steelers are always a tough nut to crack on showdown because of their spread-out target share. Ben Roethlisberger is more in play at the captain spot than most statue quarterbacks because he can often throw three or four touchdown passes to three or four different receivers. All of the Steelers’ options at receiver are viable captains. It may sound like a cop-out, but it’s true. Diontae Johnson has the highest target share over the last month at 26%. He had a few drops last week that resulted in him sitting a series or two out, so if that’s fresh in the public’s mind and we can get him at a depressed ownership he’s absolutely worth it. Chase Claypool has seen the most air yard share at 30%, but James Washington has seen the highest air yards share if you narrow it down to the last two weeks. He has seen increased snaps and targets as well. He makes for a decent punt captain that allows for a balanced lineup top to bottom where you avoid having to pay for a flier type player in the last spot. Juju Smith-Schuster remains the low aDOT over the middle extension of the run game. The last time these teams met, Johnson, Claypool and Smith-Schuster all scored touchdowns and eclipsed 20 DraftKings points.
It’s going to be a tough pill to swallow rostering a Bengals captain, but the most appealing options are either Tyler Boyd or Tee Higgins. Over the last month, Higgins has edged Boyd in target share and air yard share by just a few percentage points. Boyd operates out of the slot and gets the low aDOT targets. In a matchup that should see the Bengals scrambling to keep pace with the Steelers, Boyd getting peppered with targets is a likely occurrence. Higgins has the higher touchdown upside as he has been targeted in the end zone much more frequently this season. That’s the extent of my love for the Bengals at captain in this game.
Flex
James Conner’s status is in doubt for the game, but even if he suits up I’m not really interested in the Steelers’ running game. That goes for Benny Snell too even if Conner sits. The Steelers don’t run the ball effectively, nor do the run with any sort of volume. They love to let Big Ben sling the ball around so it makes more sense to get your exposure to the Steelers’ passing game. If anything, Jaylen Samuels who had four targets in each of the last two games makes for a decent flier to plug in as the last man into Steelers-heavy lineups.
The Bengals running back situation is interesting, because Giovani Bernard should see enough usage to be solid, but the Steelers’ defense can shut him down pretty easily given that he is operating behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Bernard’s 15-18 opportunities may only be good for 50 total yards, so I won’t have much of Bernard. Samaje Perine and Trayveon Williams have gotten on the field a bit more over the last few weeks, some of which has been garbage time, but also early in the game as well. I’d much rather take a chance on Perine or Williams falling into the end zone late in the game over Bernard having any type of success.
A.J. Green comes in at a reasonable price and has seen just as many air yards as Tee Higgins over the last four weeks. Green ranks higher on my list than Boyd and Higgins as a flex play because of what he allows you to fit in on the other side of the ball. I’d rather pay down for Green and get an extra Steelers’ stud pass-catcher than have to play Boyd and a kicker or something like that. Drew Sample has 20 targets over the four weeks, so he’s in the same category as Green, he makes for a decent lone Bengal in a Steelers heavy lineup and allows for an extra stud on that side of the ball. I think Ryan Finley will be overowned just because he’s the quarterback. He doesn’t have a massive ceiling and I’d rather just sprinkle in his pass-catchers.
Eric Ebron and his touchdown equity correlate well with Roethlisberger captain lineups because of the need for touchdowns to hit value for both positions. Ray-Ray McCloud has been used a little bit on gadget plays so he’s a sprinkle play if you are entering volume lineups.
Lineup Starters
Captain/MVP: Ben Roethlisberger
Flex: Diontae Johnson, Eric Ebron, A.J. Green
Captain/MVP: Diontae Johnson
Flex: Ben Roethlisberger, James Washington, Tee Higgins
Captain/MVP: Ben Roethlisberger
Flex: Chase Claypool, Juju Smith-Schuster, Drew Sample
Captain/MVP: James Washington
Flex: Ben Roethlisberger, Tyler Boyd, Diontae Johnson
