Week 15 had to be my best week of the season with a higher percentage of hits than usual.
Three of the week’s top-four QBs were in the article, as Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts got it done big time, so the process was good there.
I missed out on Ryan Tannehill, and he’s a guy at this point (again) who comes through more often than not, but I still have trust issues for DFS, and I’m a long-time Tannehill apologist. I also wish I listed Lamar Jackson, who I did like, and he was a top-10 value even at his high price in our DFS projections. Lamar was still struggling with his passing in Week 14, which is why I left him off.
I actually went in on Drew Brees, which was risky and looked bad for a while, but he was a win with 20.4 FP at $5900 (DK). I also listed Teddy Bridgewater, who wasn’t sexy with 17.9 FP, but he was also a win with 17.3 FP at $5300 (DK). I also threw Philip Rivers in there with a small blurb and he wasn’t great, but he was technically less than 1 point from a win with 17 FP at $5900.
The lone buzzkill at QB was Mitchell Trubisky. I know he’s a shaky DFS option, but he’s actually been between 71.5%-76% completion rate the last three games with 8.4-9.3 YPA. His issue has been a lack of attempts and/or the RBs taking all the TDs. Another 40 yards passing or another TD and he comes through, so he wasn’t awful.
Otherwise, I see no other notable regrets from Week 15. Tom Brady would have been nice to include, but the vibes with that offense weren’t good going into that game and they’re still not good. Baker Mayfield also would have been nice, but I didn’t trust he’d be needed to do much. But they are clearly expanding things for Baker, and he’s responding well. I liked Baker as a top-15 QB this summer and thought for 2+ months it was a terrible call, but if he keeps up this recent pace, he will be inside the top-15 at the position on the season.
I’ve been trying to be really selective with my RBs recommendations, and that seems to be working. I only featured two guys, Jonathan Taylor and JK Dobbins, and they were both wins. I had three high-end guys, Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, and Aaron Jones. Henry was a win, Jones a big win, and Kamara wasn’t a win per se, but 18.4 FP is more like a push at worst.
I took a big risk giving Leonard Fournette an endorsement, and he almost killed me, but he luckily came through. At his lower price, I was willing to take on his downside for his upside, but I did get a little lucky with two short TDs. They do count, though. If I’m going to take a risk like this, the payoff better be big.
I listed some other options I liked, and they were hit or miss. Great call on D’Andre Swift, decent call on Jeff Wilson, and Cam Akers got hurt. Also, Kenyan Drake made me pay for backing him two weeks in a row. That’s my bad there.
As for regrets, I did like JD McKissic and talked him up on Sunday, but I didn’t add him Friday with Antonio Gibson not yet ruled out. I obviously regret not listing David Montgomery after listing him in the column the previous three weeks. I should have leaned on the volume there with Montgomery running so well. I did avoid some buzzkills like Miles Sanders, Mike Davis, and a few others.
As for Tony Pollard, I obviously didn’t know Zeke Elliott was going to be out until Sunday morning, but while I gave Pollard a solid 16 touches, but I should have been a little more aggressive projecting a player I do believe in. I had him with 14/63 rushing and he had 12/69, but I didn’t give him enough love in the passing game.
I featured only three WRs, Brandon Aiyuk, TY Hilton, and DJ Moore. Aiyuk did it again, Moore was a nice call, and Hilton fell a little flat, but not too bad.
I should have listed a few guys I did like a lot, like DeAndre Hopkins, but for him, I didn’t know for sure Darius Slay would be out when I pushed out the article. I certainly could have listed Stefon Diggs and rested easy, which has been the case all year. I think we now look at Jarvis Landry as a weekly consideration for real, as they are opening things up and balancing things out a little, which is smart.
My two bargain-basement guys, Emmanuel Sanders and Lynn Bowden did fall short of my projections, but not that short, so they were both at least double-digit producers. I also listed wins Justin Jefferson and Corey Davis along with a solid producer in Tyreek Hill. I took a shot with Terry McLaurin, and I was on the right track, at least. His 14.7 FP was decent as were his 12 targets.
At TE, it was not a good week. My top guy was Mark Andrews and he came through with 17.6 FP. But TJ Hockenson disappeared, Irv Smith dropped a TD, Jared Cook underwhelmed. Robert Tonyan did score, but he was limited by their limited passing game.
I questioned Logan Thomas with Dwayne Haskins, but clearly Thomas is the man here. It;s unreal. I loved Noah Fant this summer and as a “trade for” a guy a month ago, but he was tough to back going into last week. Now we know he’s back and he has top-5 potential the final two weeks of the season.
Otherwise, the takeaway from Week 15 is that the number of reliable TEs is rapidly declining. I think we’re at like 7-8 left.
