I don’t have much this week, thankfully, since it was a pretty good week.
With over two months of action in the books, I’m focusing more on which players I actually trust, and it’s not easy to find a lot of them, so I’ve scaled back a little on the number of players I recommend. But trust in players also depends on salary, which makes things more complicated. For the rest of the season, I’m going to look hard at each pick and make sure I trust them as their cost, and for the low-end guys, I’ll continue to balance their upside and downside vs. low price to make sure I’m careful not to go with a guy just because he’s cheap.
Ultimately, I just want to be right, which hopefully benefits everyone. That’s the main reason I’m doing this article this year. I do think exploring my mistakes is helping my picks, but things are a little more out of my control in 2020.
The first three QBs I listed, Justin Herbert, Taysom Hill, and Deshaun Watson, are currently 1-2-3 at the position for the week, so those calls all worked out.
I tried out Andy Dalton as a bargain basement pick, and, while shaky, he’s QB10 for the week right now. I did get burned about Alex Smith, who was attempting 40+ passes a game on average and had a good matchup, but he simply didn’t have to throw it nearly as much with a big lead. Joe Burrow leaving the game in the second half did not help at all.
I went for it with Patrick Mahomes and wrote that I thought he’d throw it a lot, and he did with 45 attempts, but he was merely good, not great.
When looking over the weekly leaders, I don’t really have many regrets in terms of not listing a guy who finished high for the week. In addition to the guys I listed who were in the top-10 for the week, we also had Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill, and Derek Carr, three guys who are usually limited by a lack of attempts, so I don’t like listing them. I did like Carr in Week 11 and expected his attempts to go up, but I didn’t list him after some recent flops in the column. Fact is, he threw it only 31 times, so he wasn’t slinging it all over the place.
At RB, my Achilles’ heel, I got off to a good start with Derrick Henry, who I listed due to the two key injuries up front for the Ravens. I tried Damien Harris, which looked good in the first quarter with about 10 FP, but then he stopped getting the ball. He wasn’t a bad loss, but Harris definitely wasn’t a win. And then I got hung up on volume and price with Duke Johnson and Adrian Peterson. It’s sickening to see those names after the weeks they logged, but it just goes to show a few things. For one, it’s impossible to predict Peterson’s carry total. If you predict 7-8 using logic, he’ll get 18. If you go with a bigger number, again using logic, he’ll get 6 carries. Not his fault that they fell behind, but if you can’t get the ball against PJ Walker with no Christian McCaffrey, then you’re impossible to bank on. Let’s just all ignore Peterson’s existence, okay? We’re better off acting like he doesn’t exist. As for Dookie, I give up. I know Deshaun Watson doesn’t get him the ball much in the passing game, but he did have 5 targets, giving him 4+ in 2 of his last 3, but there’s one problem: he’s worthless in the running game.
That’s usually my problem at RB: leaning on volume. But when you combine volume with a guy who’s cheap, that volume is hardly guaranteed. If it was close to a lock, then he’d be more expensive. Duke at least can stay relevant as the hurry-up back if they’re behind (not that he does anything in that environment, but still), but Peterson doesn’t have a margin for error. Every situation is different, but clearly Johnson and the Texans are not a good mix right now.
I also listed Dalvin Cook as an expensive guy I’d pay for, and LaMical Perine as a dirt-cheap option. Perine scored, and he did then get hurt, so he might have put up a few more points. But the Jets didn’t really commit to him because they’re the Jets. Still, with just another 20-30 yards and 1-2 catches, he would have delivered nicely on his low price. But I’m done thinking the Jets will do something that makes sense. Perine was supposed to get a real look as their primary back, and while he did get hurt, of course, Frank Gore finished the week as a top-15 back.
The biggest regret I have in terms of not listing a guy was Antonio Gibson. He’s volatile, but the Washington Football team was actually favored, and that’s when you want to consider Gibson for DFS. Otherwise, the rest of the top-15 was comprised of some laughable high finishers like Melvin Gordon (who’s looked terrible before Sunday), Jonathan Taylor (good things happen when you actually, you know, give him the ball), Gore, Chase Edmonds, James White, and freakin’ Kalen Ballage.
At WR, I got off to a good start giving a lot of love to Keenan Allen, and I featured Tyreek Hill as an expensive primetime guy I’ll use. CeeDee Lamb was in there and he’s WR17 for the week with over a 3X return on his lower salary. Terry McLaurin was underwhelming, but he might have caught another 1-2 passes for another 25-30 yards, had Joe Burrow not gotten hurt, since Alex Smith threw it only 25 times.
I took a shot with Willie Snead and Denzel Mims on the low end. Snead did lead all WRs in targets with 7, second on the team, but he was a bust. Mims was technically a win, since he delivered 3x on his DK price tag of $3300.
Looking over the WR leaders for Week 11, I don’t see many guys I regret not listing, but I did like Chase Claypool and Michael Pittman, and wish I included them.
At TE, I should have listed Darren Waller, since I fully expected them to throw more than usual (although Carr did throw it only 31 times, so not much more). But it was a solid week with two top-5 guys covered in Travis Kelce, and Mark Andrews. TJ Hockenson was underwhelming, but not horrible as the TE13 for the week. I also listed Dalton Schultz as a bargain basement guy and he came through as the TE10 for the week. Logan Thomas with a good matchup and price of $3300 was a bust.
