Week 10 SNF Showdown

General Rule for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups

1. Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
2. On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spread his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
3. On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
4. Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
5. Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrates on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
6. DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
7. When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.

Captain/MVP

Quarterback is usually the most over-rostered position in the captain spot on DraftKings relative to how often it actually ends up being in the winning lineup. Due to the nature of DraftKings scoring and the fact that the quarterbacks are always priced up a bit, wide receivers and running backs tend to land in the captain a bit more often. However, this week is an exception. Both Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton are firmly in play at the captain spot. Both Jackson and Newton have tremendous rushing upside, which allows them to rack up fantasy points without lifting up a pass-catchers ceiling. The Ravens seem to have recommitted to having Jackson run the ball coming out of the bye week as he’s carried the ball nearly 30 times in the last two weeks. It’s evident that he hasn’t had a season like he did a year ago, but he always a threat for a ceiling game due to his ability to hit the 100-yard rushing bonus on top of his passing stats. Wildly, Cam hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass since Week 3 if you could believe that, but he has been great on the ground, running for eight touchdowns. The propensity for the Patriots to call Cam’s number as a runner near the goal line makes him a solid captain.

Jakobi Meyers and Marquise Brown would be the pass-catchers that I’d slot into the captain spot. Brown has been a severe disappointment this year, but he has been complaining about his role in the offense and that often leads to an increased amount of usage. Before the bye week, he hadn’t seen less than six targets, but has since only seen seven in two games. However, Brown can smash value in a single game slate much easier than a full slate. Meyers on the opposite end of the spectrum has been peppered with 24 targets over the last two weeks. Even if Harry returns to the lineup, Meyers has done enough over the last two weeks to earn a newfound role and the trust of Newton and the Patriots. The Ravens are a tough matchup, but like with Brown, a single-game slate renders those matchups somewhat meaningless because we can’t necessarily pivot.

Flex

The Patriots running backs need to be rostered based on exactly how the game script you are creating in a certain lineup is to play out. Damien Harris, if he plays, should be rostered with the idea in mind that he will be an optimal play if he scores multiple touchdowns. That would probably detract from Newton’s ceiling so they negatively correlate to a certain extent. They can find themselves in the same optimal lineup, but I would make sure to have lineups that only use one or the other. Rex Burkhead is cheap enough that he can slot in with or without Cam and he also because a great play if Harris is out or reported to be limited. Burkhead has shown the ability to be the lead back in the absence of starters evidenced by his 35 DraftKing point game against the Raiders earlier in the season. James White should be rostered in lineups that tell the story of the Patriots being down early and needing to claw their way back. White gets on the field in obvious passing situations. He is the only running back that correlates positively with Cam this season.

Mark Ingram looks like he will be active Sunday night, muddying the waters at running back for the Ravens. The issue with the Ravens running backs at this point is we don’t know how the Ravens plan to use the backs. Both Ingram and JK Dobbins are priced up pretty high, almost as if they are going to be the only running back deployed, but we now know that that probably won’t be the case. If you are only entering a couple of lineups, I’d avoid these two as they’ll probably cut into each other’s production as will Lamar. Gus Edwards’ highest DraftKings point total with Ingram active is 8.6. He very well could get a surprise goal-line carry and wind up with 20 yards for a touchdown, but I think that’s his best outcome. With two backs in front of him, Edwards isn’t someone I’m prioritizing, but he is worth a flier because his dirt-cheap salary can be paid off with a touchdown

The Patriots ancillary pass-catchers are always interesting to dissect. Obviously, we have to keep an eye on the status of N’Keal Harry, though he hasn’t been great if he is going to see a 15-20% target share, he’s worth rostering. I do think Meyers has usurped him as the alpha in the offense, however if he suits up at $3,200 on DraftKings, he will be in play because of the cheap salary. Damiere Byrd is probably my favorite Patriots wide receiver with price in mind. Byrd has been off the field for one snap in the last three weeks. He’s also priced supremely cheap for his role in the offense. He has a double-digit target week under his belt earlier in the season and also was targeted nine times last week. There are a few other players that could be worth a flier if you are mass multi-entering lineups like Gunner Olszewski, but Isaiah Ford is the player that intrigues me the most. He has never stepped on the field as a Patriot being acquired from the Dolphins just a few weeks ago, but he will be available Sunday Night. We have no clue how the Patriots plan to use Ford, but we’ve seen Belichek do strange things before. I could see Ford having some plays dialed up for him on offense or be the primary returner on special teams. Keep an eye on the Patriots’ tight end situation. Ryan Izzo is banged up and Jordan Thomas just cleared COVID protocol and can suit up for the Patriots tonight. My bold prediction that one of the players who has never stepped on a football field as a Patriot will be useful in showdown lineups on Sunday Night, either Thomas or Ford.

The top two options over the last three weeks for the Ravens have been Mark Andrews and Willie Snead at 23% and 21% target shares respectively. Snead has a 30% air yard share to lead the team. I think he’ll be under-rostered relative to his chance of being in the optimal lineup, I think he’s somewhat sneaky. Andrews needs touchdowns so he correlates well with Jackson. I wouldn’t make lineups that have Andrews and not Jackson as it probably means there were multiple touchdowns thrown. The rest of the Ravens pass-catchers can be added as dart throws, but none of them have secure roles that we can confidently count on. Nick Boyle has seen a good amount of involvement, he’s worth consideration as the 6th man in with eight targets in his last three games, which included a score. Devin Duvernay is at a salary that one breakaway catch could put him in the optimal lineup even without a touchdown. Miles Boykin plays only around 40% of snaps and probably needs a touchdown to hit value. I like those three in that order.

Lineup Starters

Captain/MVP: Lamar Jackson

Flex: Willie Snead, Jakobi Meyers, Cam Newton

Captain/MVP: Cam Newton

Flex: James White, Damiere Byrd, Mark Andrews

Captain/MVP: Marquise Brown

Flex: Lamar Jackson, Jakobi Meyers, Jordan Thomas

Captain/MVP: Jakobi Meyers

Flex: Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson, Willie Snead