General Rule for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
- Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
- On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spread his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
- On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
- Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
- Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrates on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
- DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
- When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain/MVP
Dalvin Cook is coming off two absolute monster games, averaging about 47 DraftKings points over the last two weeks. While it’s tempting to just lock him into the captain slot on DraftKings, it creates massive deficiencies in the rest of the lineup. Because you don’t have to pay 1.5x salary on FanDuel I think Cook is a much better captain there. That said, Cook can land in the optimal lineup if there is a punt or two that crushes value. The Bears have been pretty stout against the run, only allowing Ronald Jones to eclipse 100 yards. If you feel strongly about a punt or two, you can lock Cook into the captain, otherwise I think it’s a tough scene to jam him in and spend 40% of your cap on one player. Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson are the two other Vikings that I would consider as captains, and I think that’s fairly obvious. Both players haven’t topped five targets over the last two games, but that coincides with Cook’s massive games. They obviously don’t correlate well with Cook because he’s supremely expensive and if he hits value he probably ripped off big touchdown runs that negatively impact the Vikings pass-catchers.
Allen Robinson, if reports are that he’s active and not limited, can really crush this Vikings pass defense The Vikings are bottom five in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and also give up almost 300 yards passing per game. Anthony Miller is an interesting mid-range captain for the Bears, too. He has 19 targets in the last two weeks and has been a much bigger part of the Bears offense. He can allow you to sneak in an extra pay up spot. The running back spot is a cheap spot for the Bears this week as it only consists of Ryan Nall and Cordarelle Patterson. I think those guys are more solid as flex plays, but you can take a flier in the captain slot on DraftKings with them. Neither will get a ton of carries, but their value comes in the passing game, so they are good correlation with Nick Foles
Flex
You’ll probably need one of the signal-callers in your lineup, but I’m not overly excited about either one. I’d prefer Nick Foles due to the matchup. I think he can have a solid game against this Vikings defense that on average nearly gives up the 300-yard bonus to opposing quarterbacks. Kirk Cousins has one 300-yard game under his belt and in general, the Vikings offense loves to run the football. At his salary, I don’t think he’s a must-play for either the captain or flex spot. One of Thielen and Jefferson can have a big game on receptions and yards alone and not bring Cousins along with them.
Darnell Mooney leads the Bears in air yards share at 38% so he is very much in play as a flex play and I wouldn’t even fault you for taking a shot at the captain, either. There have been multiple instances of Mooney almost reeling in a touchdown bomb. I don’t expect him to be a focal point enough for him to have a massive ceiling game. Jimmy Graham has a ton of touchdown upside he correlates really well with Nick Foles because they both heavily depend on the touchdown to meet value. There aren’t many other pass-catchers on the Bears I’m interested in. Riley Ridley caught two passes last week in relief of Javon Wims who is currently suspended for throwing haymakers. Riley works as a dart throw, but use sparingly.
The Vikings don’t really have much cheap value either, which is why I mentioned it would be tough for Cook to be loaded into the captain spot. Kyle Rudolph and Tyler Conklin should see extra looks with Irv Smith out. Rudolph will be popular so Conklin could be a solid pivot. Rudolph and Smith both had a 15% target share over the last three weeks. I wouldn’t expect all that to trickle to Rudolph obviously, but the tight ends in general are in a good spot.
Chad Beebe played 17 snaps last week, but we may see him on the field a bit more this week if the Vikings opt for less two tight end sets. He can find his way into the optimal lineup with something as little as 3-30 if no one else in the range has a productive day. I think we can use Alexander Mattison as well. We’ve seen him cut into Cook’s snaps on occasion and I think for his price he’s in play. A big run or screen pass during a spell series could put him into the optimal as well.
I do think that the lack of screaming value will lead to the DSTs and Kickers having a good shot of making their way into the optimal lineup. The Bears have been great on defense and if they get pressure on Cousins, he’ll definitely cough the ball up. Though the Vikings defense hasn’t been great, the Bears’ offense hasn’t been either. I can also see both offenses stalling in the red zone and settling for field goals.
Lineup Starters
Captain/MVP: Anthony Miller
Flex: Nick Foles, Adam Thielen, Bears DST
Captain/MVP: Adam Thielen
Flex: Kirk Cousins, Allen Robinson, Kyle Rudolph
Captain/MVP: Allen Robinson
Flex: Nick Foles, Darnell Mooney, Justin Jefferson
Captain/MVP: Allen Robinson
Flex: Nick Foles, Cordarelle Patterson, Dalvin Cook
Captain/MVP: Dalvin Cook
Flex: Vikings DST, Anthony Miller, Ryan Nall
