Ba-rutal. I’ve accepted that I’m not going to get most things right in 2020, let alone everything. But Week 10 was just brutal. I have to accept some of the blame, but it’s just been a really bad year for DFS. Hopefully, that culminated in Week 10 and we’re in better shape the rest of the season, but more likely it’s going to be tougher, given weather issues that really seem to be slowing teams down in November, and since the weather tends to be nastier in December.
At QB, I got sucked into Derek Carr again due to his low price, and for the second week in a row, he didn’t do crap. After throwing for at least 261 yards and 2 TDs in five straight games (and 284+ in four of those) with between 31-38 attempts, Carr’s now thrown the ball 24, 23, and 25 times for 111, 165, and 154 yards. The Raiders scored 30+ points in two of those three, so points weren’t the issue (the other game was a bad weather game). The problem with Carr in the last three weeks is very simple: they’ve won all three games. Carr’s probably going to average 35+ attempts the next two weeks against KC and Atl, but I don’t think I can go here for at least a couple of weeks.
I was thoroughly convinced Jared Goff would throw for 300+, and he did, but Goff was another miss. Apparently, there’s a lesson learned this year in DFS; if a team was giving up well over 300 yards a game with its two starting corners on the field, and if the QB going up against them averaged 300+ yards in two games the year before, you should fade the QB going up against them. Why? 2020 NFL football, that’s why.
Tom Brady was a good call, finally. You always go right back to Brady after high drama or an ugly loss, and Week 9’s defeat at the hands of the Saints was so bad it was surreal.
And here’s a rule of thumb we learned this week with Carson Wentz: If Wentz gets multiple TDs six straight games before a bye with a depleted skill group and is scratching and clawing his way to a top-10 standing his previous four games and is coming out of the bye with his skill group a lot healthier, then sit his ass down. To be fair, the Eagles offense is broken and Wentz has not played well all year, so I take some blame for listing him. There really is a trend here with Wentz, and I’ve been very guilty of falling victim to it: the concept of Carson Wentz is usually a lot better than the actual fantasy commodity. He’s gifted, and he’s usually in a position to succeed, but he needs his offensive machine to be well-oiled. If it’s not, he may make the situation worse, as he is in 2020.
I also listed Kyler Murray and Josh Allen, who I had as the QB1 and QB2 for the week, and they were the QBs 2-3, so we’re good there. I also listed Deshaun Watson, but with the caveat that should his projection (22.7 Friday) on the site dip below 22.0 on Sunday, then forget it. We did move his projection down to 21, so I won’t take the L there. We did learn that we might not be able to trust Watson in bad weather. I thought he’d run more, and he did have his second-highest carry total of the season with 8, but it didn’t help much.
On the bargain basement front, I did back Daniel Jones, and he did exactly what I expected: they moved the ball and he ran. Had he thrown a TD pass, he would have gone off, but he did also have a second rushing TD called back. Had that play stood up, he’d be the QB5 for the week. That’s why he was listed in the first place: yes, he’s risky, but there is a potential big payout. I also listed Drew Lock, and I was expecting volume. Oh, we got it, with 47 freaking attempts, but Lock threw 4 INTs. I’ve never really backed Lock and tried to keep an open mind with him heading into this year, but it’s becoming clear why the QB-needy Broncos passed on him in the draft - twice. Oh, yeah, they were ALL over him. Scooped him right up with their third pick of the 2019 draft. I’m not yet writing him off, but I have a pen in hand and I’m almost ready to put it to paper for that already in year two.
I had to list Duke Johnson at his price point, but these fill-in guys are about a 50/50 proposition this year. Relying on volume is not a safe move this year, but it’s when salary is also part of the equation, and Dookie was cheap at $5000 on DK and $5500 on FanDuel. I projected him to rush 15 times for 59 yards (3.9 YPC) and he had 14 for 54 (3.9 YPC). Pretty good, right? The problem was, after catching all 4 of his targets for 32 yards coming off the bench the week before, Johnson got only 1 target and 0 catches. We just can’t count on Watson getting the ball to his RBs, and Duke had little chance to do anything when they scored only 7 points.
And James Conner. I didn’t even like this guy in the preseason, but he was definitely getting it done with 18-25 opportunities six weeks in a row from Weeks 2-8. He was getting it done until I started backing him last week, and he’s completely imploded, and in two good matchups to boot. The Steelers never trailed and cruised to a 26-point victory at home against a weak run defense, yet Conner was irrelevant, so something is awry. I can honestly say you will probably never see me back him again for DFS. Not that I’m holding a grudge; I just think his time as the bell-cow back is coming to an end soon, since he’s a free agent in 2021.
I did get D’Andre Swift right, and Aaron Jones and Miles Sanders were okay (but c’mon, guys), but Mike Davis flopped and got hurt. That dude needs to be down to like $5500 on DK for me to consider him again, and that’s assuming CMC is out again (which seems likely this week).
I also did fine with JD McKissic, who delivered great returns on his minimal investment, but because it’s 2020, he wasn’t even the best fantasy option at RB on his own team.
At WR, it was more of a mixed bag, but with more failure than usual. The Rams guys fell well short of my expectations, despite their QB throwing for over 300 yards. Sean McVay has not really been our friend this year, since he’s using different #3 WRs and he’s annoying with his TE usage. I can’t argue with his RBBC approach, but it’s still annoying. At least Jared Goff is getting it done with all three weapons, right? Nope. And now they lost the anchor of their line at LT in Andew Whitworth. Fun!
After turning 7 targets into a solid 6/64 in Tua’s first start, I thought DeVante Parker was a good play, but he was not. He got another 7 targets, and they scored 29 points, but Tua threw it only 25 times. Obviously, you can’t deny Salvon Ahmed his carries, even though like 9% of Dolphins fans knew who he was two weeks ago. I knew all about him from Greg Cosell’s scouting report, but I didn’t look into him much more, so I just learned how to pronounce his name this week! This wasn’t the first time Parker will disappoint me and it probably won’t be the last.
With Christian Kirk, he’d been in the column the previous 2-3 weeks, so my thought was I’ll keep listing him until he proves me wrong for doing it, and the matchup did look promising overall. Well, he proved me wrong for putting him in there finally, so I’ll need a salary reduction if I’m to consider him again in the near future.
I did get Mike Evans and DJ Moore right, but they were still fairly shaky plays with other dudes getting looks on their teams. But that’s kind of the problem this year: way too many players involved and getting looks and touches. That’s not a problem for Terry McLaurin, who I also listed and will continue to list. Hell, I’d vote for the guy if he ran for President.
But I did flop on Michael Thomas (probably a week too early, but we’ll see now with Drew Brees likely out a little while) and DJ Chark, who seemed to catch a major break with the top two corners out for GB. But remember the lesson learned with Jared Goff this week: if a team’s top two corners are out, beware (sarcasm font).
The play that missed me off the most was Jarvis Landry, who also crushed my prop bets because he couldn’t haul in 4 damn balls. In one respect, it’s my bad because I advocated for a guy in bad weather on a team that wants to limit their QB. You know, the former #1 overall pick and Heisman winner. Let’s hide that guy and treat him like a 7th rounder!
This has been a big problem in fantasy this year, and especially DFS: teams being perfectly content playing 1940s style football with just a couple of forward passes a quarter (I’m exaggerating, a little). Here are the teams to look out for with that phenomenon right now.
Baltimore Ravens
Cleveland Browns
Minnesota Vikings
Tennessee Titans
Miami Dolphins
Las Vegas Raiders
Los Angeles Rams
Detroit Lions
There are a few other teams that would like to hide their QB, but they just can’t, like Washington, Chicago, Denver, San Francisco, and Jacksonville.
And finally, TE also sucked this week. TJ Hockenson was a little banged up, but his matchup was so good, and his role was fantastic. I guess they hit their November quota with 18 targets Weeks 7-8.
The rest was not good, pending Jimmy Graham, as Eric Ebron and Evan Engram--both heading into the week with the arrow pointing up--flopped. Engram did come close to a spectacular TD catch but he was out of bounds and just in front of the goal line.
This week’s column contained a little more quantity than usual, so this coming week I’m going to try to focus on quality and narrow my picks down further.
