Several mistakes were made on my part last week. For starters, I underestimated how truly disgustingly-terrible the Ole Miss “defense” has been fielded by HC Lane Kiffin. Allowing Mississippi State true freshman QB Will Rogers to pass for 440 yards and three TDs should be embarrassing to DCs D. J. Durkin and Chris Partridge. The next mistake I made was spending hours of my time researching everyone on the slate. Looking back to my article from Saturday, so many games were canceled due to COVID that only a couple individual write-ups still applied at game time.
As I am writing this article, Liberty at Coastal Carolina has been canceled. I know some of you find it fun to change your lineups in the last minutes prior to the noon kickoffs. For me, it’s extremely difficult to enjoy watching all of my research go out the window in place of beat writer updates on undisclosed injuries. And it’s not very difficult to change two or three lineups at the last second … try doing that with a minimum of 20 lineups. DraftKings did finally decide to increase the size of the main slate by a couple of games. Regardless, I truly love college football, and we have a ton of competitive games to watch this Saturday. Let’s get started.
Against the Spread Picks
Ohio State (-24.0) at Michigan State
Purdue (-2.0) vs. Nebraska
Iowa (-13.5) at Illinois
Oklahoma State (-2.5) at TCU
Texas (-7.0) at Kansas State
UCLA (+3.0) at Arizona State **If Dorian Thompson-Robinson is cleared
Total Wagers
Arkansas at Missouri (Under 51.5)
Vanderbilt at Georgia (Over 54.0)
Boston College at Virginia (Over 54.5)
Clemson at Virginia Tech (Over 67.0)
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields, Ohio State at Michigan State (DK: $10.0K | O/U: 59.5 | Implied: 41.75)
Since I’ve already covered Justin Fields from his most current stats, I’m just going to carry the same analysis forward with an update to the opponent:
You really can’t say enough about the Indiana Hoosiers. I witnessed Justin Fields make mistakes that I’ve not seen him make at any point either with Ohio State or in the games I’ve seen of him playing for Harrison HS. The performance must have the Hoosiers’ confidence at an all-time high -- at least prior to Michael Penix Jr. tearing his ACL. The Buckeyes most likely took that 42-35 victory as a moral defeat. While not the perfectly vanilla spot he would’ve faced from Illinois, I actually think facing a better Michigan State defense will be better for a get right performance from Fields.
The Bottom Line: The Spartans are allowing the 75th-highest (out of 126 active teams) completion percentage (59 percent), 50th-highest YPG (238.2), and 85th-highest pure passing FPG to QBs (12.7). As 24-point road favorites, we always run the risk of Ohio State resting its studs for the fourth quarter. The step up in opponent should remove those concerns, allowing Fields to release all of his pent up frustrations.
Kyle Trask, Florida at Tennessee (DK: $9.6K | O/U: 62.5 | Implied: 40.0)
Well, this will be one of your last opportunities for some Florida offense exposure. We’ll likely get a reduced slate for the SEC Championship and another including their future bowl game. However, they will have one last opportunity to show voters what they can do with Tennessee as the punching bag. If you’re paying for Kyle Trask, you’re stacking him withKyle Pitts. Since UF is passing on 58 percent of plays, the fact that the Volunteers have one of the bottom-20 run defenses really doesn’t apply.
The Bottom Line: Thankfully for Trask, Tennessee is only generating 8.9 pressures/game. The vulnerabilities don’t stop there for the formerly-ranked program. UT is allowing the eighth-highest completion percentage (68 percent), 13th-highest YPA (8.79), and 40th-most YPG (243.6). Trask is averaging the most pure passing FPG (30.7) and fourth-most air yards/game (242.7). It’s simply a great spot for Trask to showcase his skills to NFL scouts.
Brennan Armstrong, Virginia vs. Boston College (DK: $8.2K | O/U: 54.5 | Implied: 29.25)
What can I say, I’m a leg guy. At least as it relates to QBs with the ability to move the ball on the ground. Four such QBs on the main slate with the opportunity fit the bill: Fields, Sam Ehlinger, Adrian Martinez, and Brennan Armstrong. However, only Ehlinger (21.2 percent) has a higher carry share than Armstrong (20.6 percent) … at a 10 percent discount. To be clear, I always remove kneel-downs and fumbled snaps from my rushing calculations.
The Bottom Line: Boston College is no slouch in the defensive department. However, run defense has been its weakest trait. That is, unless you factor in their bottom-40 missed tackle rate. The Eagles are allowing the 35th-highest YPC (4.53) in 2020. Considering that they are only allowing the 52nd-most rushing YPG, opposing offenses have clearly failed to take full advantage. Armstrong is averaging 16.4 carries in games he didn’t leave due to injury (Week 6) or face an FCS team (Week 12). I’ll be making every effort to fit two $7.9K-or-more QBs onto my Week 14 lineups.
Jack Plummer, Purdue vs. Nebraska (DK: $7.9K | O/U: 61.5 | Implied: 31.75)
Unfortunately, we don’t have any mobility from Jack Plummer. He’s also the only QB on this list averaging less than 30 FPG -- Armstrong is above 30 when you remove the quarter he played in Week 6. However, Plummer should have zero issues eclipsing 30 points against this Nebraska defense. It really must be maddening for Cornhuskers HC Scott Frost to field this level of a program. Their defense is a disaster, the O-line is a joke, and neither of his QBs has stood out through the air.
When we take into account the heights that Frost’s and Purdue HC Jeff Brohm’s offense can reach when all of its gears are rolling, I find it shocking that they are both below the top-50 teams in pace of play (85th for Nebraska & 58th for Purdue). The Huskers are allowing 32.6 points/game thanks to a bottom-35 run defense and secondary. Despite that, you’ll not see any Zander Horvath in my lineups at $8.4K … yikes!
The Bottom Line: NU has graciously allowed 64 percent of passes to be completed (32nd), 7.74 YPA (39th), but have limited passing TDs -- more on that later. That’s about to change in Week 14.Plummer will have Rondale Moore -- one of the top-five draft-eligible WRs in the nation -- along with the talents of David Bell. For my money, stacking Plummer withMoore is the optimal route. But not going to argue againstBell.
Alternatives:
Spencer Sanders, Oklahoma State at TCU (DK: $6.8K | O/U: 51.5 | Implied: 27.0)
JT Daniels, Georgia vs. Vanderbilt (DK: $6.8K | O/U: 54.0 | Implied: 44.75)
Phil Jurkovec, Boston College at Virginia (DK: $6.6K | O/U: 54.5 | Implied: 24.25)
Adrian Martinez, Nebraska at Purdue (DK: $7.2K | O/U: 61.5 | Implied: 29.75)
Kellen Mond, Texas A&M at Auburn (DK: $7.7K | O/U: 49.0 | Implied: 28.0)
Sam Ehlinger, Texas at Kansas State (DK: $9.1K | O/U: 51.5 | Implied: 29.25)
Cheap super-flex option (Will all depend on who is named the starter):
Jarrett Guarantano, Tennessee vs. Florida (DK: $5.2K | O/U: 62.5 | Implied: 22.5)
Harrison Bailey, Tennessee vs. Florida (DK: $4.5K | O/U: 62.5 | Implied: 22.5)
Running Backs
Kyren Williams, Notre Dame vs. Syracuse (DK: $9.2K | O/U: 51.5 | Implied: 42.75)
Week 13 was one of my least favorites of the CFB season. However, investing everything in Kyren Williams against UNC proved afavorable decision. When C’Bo Flemister was ruled out in Week 13, I invested far too much in Chris Tyree. Is that related to his abilities? Not even close. I should have taken the quality of the opponent into account for my carry share projections. Notre Dame fed Williams with 27 touches in that game in order to ensure the victory. To be perfectly honest, there is zero need for me to even sell you on Williams this week. He is matchup independent outside of facing the top-five run defenses.
The Bottom Line: Just to make sure it is clear, Williams is my top RB for Week 14. However, don’t forget aboutTyree due to his limited involvement last week. The Syracuse offense is one of the slowest, lowest-scoring units thanks to being anchored by a bottom-five O-line. I’ll be blown away if they manage double-digit points. The Orange’s defense is surrendering the 24th-most rushing YPG (201.7), 36th-most TDs/game (2.1), and 26th-most FPG to RBs (32.8). I’m not going to directly tout Tyree but, at $3.2K, with hisexplosiveness, you might see why I am just as high on his value upside as for Williams.
Tyler Goodson, Iowa at Illinois (DK: $7.4K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 32.25)
If you haven’t received the notice, Tyler Goodson is a good football player. Unfortunately, his days priced at sub-$7K are coming to an end. He didn’t set the world ablaze against Nebraska, but30 carries is more than enough to earn my love. If that level of involvement continues, he will have some monster games in his near future. That could begin in Champaign this week. The Illini are allowing 4.65 YPC (30th), 194.2 rushing YPG (28th), and 30.2 FPG to RBs (37th).
The Bottom Line: For the icing on the cake, consider that Goodson’s carry share has increased 39 percent over the last three weeks compared to the previous four weeks. In order to roster a pair of high-priced QBs, Kyren Williams is likely off the table. To make things more difficult, the sub-$5K receiving options are slim-to-none. We may also be priced out of Goodson to make it work. However, if we get a late update pushing a sub-$7K QB into some Super-Flex upside -- the Tennessee QB comes to mind, Goodson will be a dynamite addition to our core.
Dezmon Jackson, Oklahoma State at TCU (DK: $6.2K | O/U: 51.5 | Implied: 27.0)
Did I play Dezmon Jackson in every lineup last week? Of course. Was I happy about being forced to do so with the entire field expected to jump on the bandwagon? Not in the slightest. Well, we will all be forced to ride that train once again:
The Cowboys will face an overachieving TCU run defense behind their top-15 O-line. The Horned Frogs’ secondary has been excellent, I just don’t see them shutting down Tylan Wallace. The difficult matchup is the only reason I am pushing Wallace down to alternative-status. But their bottom-35 run defense is setting Dez up for a repeat performance.
The Bottom Line: You simply cannot fake 36 carries, 235 rushing yards, and three TDs against a Power-5 program. We don’t have the luxury of another $3.3K salary for Jackson, but $6.2K is far from where he should be priced.
Richard Newton, Washington vs. Stanford (DK: $5.4K | O/U: 50.0 | Implied: 30.75)
This is my longshot RB. If you can’t stomach the possibility that it doesn’t pan out, kindly disregard. Richard Newton came into the season on the verge of a breakout. His nose for the end zone is unchallenged on UW’s roster. Something happened during practice last week that led him to dress, sit on the sidelines against Utah. Perhaps new HC Jimmy Lake is pushing his buttons to bring out the best from him. If it’s something personal, Newton could soon enter his name into the transfer portal.
The Bottom Line: The gamble nearly cost Washington the game. Losing 21-0 at the half, the Huskies scored 24 unanswered points to pull out the improbable victory. It is my belief that Coach Lake likes his job. And sitting his most talented RB is not the greatest of ideas. I think his intention was to put a chip on Newton’s shoulder. We’ll need to follow reports, nothing new there, but it could pay off big. Stanford is allowing the ninth-highest YPC (5.73), 10th-most YPG (229.0), 13th-most TDs/game (2.67), and 12th-most FPG to RBs (38.9). If he sits, we pivot to Kamari Pleasant, Sean McGrew, or even Cameron Davis. Win-Win. Just keep your fingers crossed that we actually get an update.
My preferred Flex RB salary-savers:
Kenny McIntosh, Georgia vs. Vanderbilt (DK: $3.2K | O/U: 54.0 | Implied: 44.75)
Chris Tyree, Notre Dame vs. Syracuse (DK: $3.2K | O/U: 51.5 | Implied: 42.75)
Sean McGrew, Washington vs. Stanford (DK: $4.1K | O/U: 50.0 | Implied: 30.75)
Mark-Antony Richards, Auburn vs. Texas A&M (DK: $3.1K | O/U: 49.0 | Implied: 21.0)
*If both Tank Bigsby and D.J. Williams are ruled out
Cameron Davis, Washington vs. Stanford (DK: $3.0K | O/U: 50.0 | Implied: 30.75)
*If Richard Newton is ruled out
Alternatives:
Isaiah Spiller, Texas A&M at Auburn (DK: $7.6K | O/U: 49.0 | Implied: 28.0)
Eric Gray, Tennessee vs. Florida (DK: $7.3K | O/U: 62.5 | Implied: 22.5)
Jalen Berger, Wisconsin vs. Indiana (DK: $5.8K | O/U: 45.0 | Implied: 29.5)
Kamari Pleasant, Washington vs. Stanford (DK: $5.0K | O/U: 50.0 | Implied: 30.75)
Ainias Smith, Texas A&M at Auburn (DK: $5.5K | O/U: 49.0 | Implied: 28.0)
Zamir White, Georgia vs. Vanderbilt (DK: $6.8K | O/U: 54.0 | Implied: 44.75)
James Cook, Georgia vs. Vanderbilt (DK: $5.5K | O/U: 54.0 | Implied: 44.75)
Jahmyr Gibbs, Georgia Tech at NC State (DK: $8.0K | O/U: 60.0 | Implied: 26.5)
*If he plays
Zonovan Knight, NC State vs. Georgia Tech (DK: $6.3K | O/U: 60.0 | Implied: 33.5)
David Bailey, Boston College at Virginia (DK: $4.9K | O/U: 54.5 | Implied: 25.25)
$4.5K-or-less flex options:
Jordan Mason, Georgia Tech at NC State (DK: $4.2K | O/U: 60.0 | Implied: 26.5)
Zach Evans, TCU vs. Oklahoma State (DK: $4.0K | O/U: 51.5 | Implied: 24.5)
Daijun Edwards, Georgia vs. Vanderbilt (DK: $3.0K | O/U: 54.0 | Implied: 44.75)
Receivers
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State at Michigan State (DK: $7.1K | O/U: 59.5 | Implied: 41.75)
Nearly the same salary, different opponent. Here is an update to last week’s analysis on Chris Olave:
I simply could not believe my eyes -- yet again -- upon learning that Chris Olave’s salary was only increased from $6.8K to $7.1K. Garrett Wilson’s salary is $8.8K, for comparison’s sake. Unless DK salary constructors are just being kind (not a chance), the only other reasonable explanation is that DK simply does not understand the truly elite-level skills possessed by Olave. Either way, Olave should once again be 100 percent owned on Saturday.
The Bottom Line: When Justin Fields watched footage from the Indiana game, if he didn’t spot all of the routes where he missed a wide open Olave, his coaching staff definitely brought each instance to his attention. I fully believe that Week 14 will be a get-right game for both Fields and Olave. Even if you disagree on Fields, how can you sit Olave at $7.1K?
Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida at Tennessee (DK: $7.8K | O/U: 62.5 | Implied: 40.0)
Do I really need to tell you why Kyle Pitts is an excellent play? I hope not.
The Bottom Line: Rather than writing a bunch of words, I’ll providethis,this,this, andthis.
Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, Nebraska at Purdue (DK: $6.9K | O/U: 61.5 | Implied: 29.75)
In the midst of a QB controversy, their starting RB, Dedrick Mills, missing the last two games with -- brace yourself -- an undisclosed injury, and abysmal defensive play, we have Wan’Dale Robinson and his positive attitude:
Theformer RB has game-changing speed that you will one day see gracing an NFL broadcast. Robinson is garnering a 28 percent target share, 32-plus in three of his last five games. With only 5.9 air yards/target, we can clearly see that Robinson is not asking his QBs to do anything other than send the ball to the flat, or on quick-breaking routes.
The Bottom Line: Wan’Dale is also averaging 9.7 rushing attempts over his last three. That versatility combined with his share of touches offer us huge upside. The downside is that his speed can result in high-impact collisions. Not the best for one’s health. Purdue is authorizing 254.4 passing YPG (32nd) and another 151.6 YPG on the ground (62nd). Plenty of mileage for Robinson to reach value.
Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue vs. Nebraska (DK: $6.8K | O/U: 61.5 | Implied: 31.75)
Speaking of future NFL talents, Rondale Moore could be the mostelectric WR in the nation outside of Anthony Schwartz’s world classability, of course. What’s more, he has a history of epic fantasy performances. His running mate, David Bell, is very talented. Moore is on another planet. Do not be surprised to see Moore’s name called in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft.
The Bottom Line: As I’ve already beaten to death, Nebraska’s defense contains a couple of issues. They’re allowing 32.6 points/game from being run over by run-heavy offenses the last four weeks after being picked apart by the OSU offense in the Big Ten opener. Since the Cornhuskers haven’t been attacked by a pass-heavy offense, sans the Buckeyes, their pass D numbers are unreliable. Nebraska’s secondary is easily outside of the top 90 programs in the nation. The Boilermakers are going to set off a collection of fireworks on Saturday. Make sure you find a comfortable seat with a clear view.
Alternatives:
Brennan Eagles, WR, Texas at Kansas State (DK: $5.8K | O/U: 51.5 | Implied: 29.25)
Tylan Wallace, WR, Oklahoma State at TCU (DK: $7.3K | O/U: 51.5 | Implied: 27.0)
Anthony Schwartz, WR, Auburn vs. Texas A&M (DK: $5.9K | O/U: 49.0 | Implied: 21.0)
Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State at Michigan State (DK: $8.8K | O/U: 59.5 | Implied: 41.75)
Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College vs. Virginia (DK: $5.2K | O/U: 54.5 | Implied: 25.25)
Javon McKinley, WR, Notre Dame vs. Syracuse (DK: $5.2K | O/U: 61.5 | Implied: 29.75)
Cade Otton, TE, Washington vs. Stanford (DK: $6.0K | O/U: 50.0 | Implied: 30.75)
Taj Harris, WR, Syracuse at Notre Dame (DK: $5.7K | O/U: 51.5 | Implied: 8.75)
$4.9K-or-less options:
Josh Palmer, WR, Tennessee vs. Florida (DK: $4.9K | O/U: 62.5 | Implied: 22.5)
Charlie Kolar, TE, Iowa State vs. West Virginia (DK: $4.8K | O/U: 49.5 | Implied: 28.0)
Briley Moore, TE, Kansas State vs. Texas (DK: $3.7K | O/U: 51.5 | Implied: 22.25)
Jake Smith, WR, Texas at Kansas State (DK: $4.9K | O/U: 51.5 | Implied: 29.25)
Tony Poljan, TE, Virginia vs. Boston College (DK: $4.5K | O/U: 54.5 | Implied: 29.25)
Optimal Passing Game Stacks (Cash/SE)
Pay particular attention to the labels between each receiving option. Here are the guidelines:
Plus (+) = Optimal receiving stack
Plus/Minus (+/-) = Triple stack option
Plus/or (+/or) = More than one optimal receiving stack and worthy triple stack option
Or = More than one worthy secondary option in a double stack
For the Run-Back Options: salaries are not included in provided cap calculations.
The combined salary listings are calculated triple stacks consisting of the QB plus the first two receiving options.
Justin Fields + Chris Olave +/- Garrett Wilson
Run-Back Options: Jalen Nailor, Jayden Reed
Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan State Spartans
Line: -24.0 | O/U: 59.5 | Implied: 41.75 | Combined Salary: $25.9K DK | Cap: 51.8%
Kyle Trask + Kyle Pitts +/- Kadarius Toney
Run-Back Options: Josh Palmer
Florida Gators at Tennessee Volunteers
Line: -17.5 | O/U: 62.5 | Implied: 40.0 | Combined Salary: $24.1K DK | Cap: 48.2%
Jack Plummer + Rondale Moore +/- David Bell
Run-Back Options: Wan’Dale Robinson
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Line: -2.0 | O/U: 61.5 | Implied: 31.75 | Combined Salary: $22.2K DK | Cap: 44.4%
Brennan Armstrong + Tony Poljan
Run-Back Options: Zay Flowers
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Boston College Eagles
Line: -4.0 | O/U: 54.5 | Implied: 29.25 | Combined Salary: $12.7K DK | Cap: 25.4%
Passing Game Stacks (GPPs)
Spencer Sanders + Tylan Wallce +/- Dezmon Jackson (RB)
Run-Back Options: None
Oklahoma State Cowboys at TCU Horned Frogs
Line: -2.5 | O/U: 51.5 | Implied: 27.0 | Combined Salary: $20.3K DK | Cap: 40.6%
Phil Jurkovec + Zay Flowers +/- CJ Lewis
Run-Back Options: Tony Poljan
Boston College Eagles at Virginia Cavaliers
Line: +4.0 | O/U: 54.5 | Implied: 25.25 | Combined Salary: $16.8K DK | Cap: 33.6%
Sam Ehlinger + Brennan Eagles +/- Jake Smith
Run-Back Options: Briley Moore
Texas Longhorns at Kansas State Wildcats
Line: -7.0 | O/U: 51.5 | Implied: 29.25 | Combined Salary: $19.8K DK | Cap: 39.6%
Kellen Mond + Jalen Wydermyer +/or Ainias Smith (RB)
Run-Back Options: Anthony Schwartz, Seth Williams, Eli Stove
Texas A&M Aggies at Auburn Tigers
Line: -7.0 | O/U: 49.0 | Implied: 28.0 | Combined Salary: $19.0K DK | Cap: 38.0%
