The CFB Bottom Line: Dec 10 Slate

December 10, 2020 11:30am EST

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The CFB Bottom Line: Dec 10 Slate

FPTS Staff
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December 10, 2020 11:30am EST

By Josh Chevalier, CFB DFS Analyst

These two-game midweek slates always seem to bring a bit of unpredictability, especially when they include Group of 5 teams where information can be scarce. This week is no exception. There is major uncertainty surrounding the QB situations for both Southern Miss and FAU. After another turnover-laden game from Florida Atlantic QB Javion Posey, local media and fans are hoping HC Willie Taggart will turn back to Nick Tronti.

The most realistic option is that both QBs play, leaving them unplayable in cash contests. For Southern Miss, it appears that Tate Whatley is out with a lingering shoulder injury, meaning Trey Lowe III -- who has eight total fantasy points in his two starts this year -- will get the nod at QB for Southern Miss.

As you will see below, this information along with favorable matchups from the second game on the slate will lead us to heavily lean on the QBs and WRs from Pittsburgh & Georgia Tech. Let’s dive in.

Against the Spread Picks

Pittsburgh (-7.0) at Georgia Tech

FAU (-8.5) at Southern Miss

Total Wagers

Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech (Over 54.0)

FAU at Southern Miss (Over 42.5)

Quarterbacks

Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech (DK: $7.5K | O/U: 54 | Implied: 30.5)

Kenny Pickett is the most obvious QB1 on the slate with 36-plus passing attempts in 6-of-7 games vs. Power 5 opponents. Pickett is averaging 24-plus FPG on DK with no other QB averaging more than 20. Georgia Tech is also ranked 104th vs. opposing QBs, giving up 27-plus FPG, and 278 passing YPG. Pickett also offers some rushing upside with seven rushing TDs in eight games. Pittsburgh has the highest implied team total at 30.5 points and is facing a Georgia Tech D that is allowing 37.1 PPG.

While clearly being the best QB option on this slate, Pickett is the second-cheapest QB of the projected starters. With the uncertainty under center for FAU and horrible performances from Lowe, Pickett is a core piece in our Cash/SE lineups.

Jeff Sims, Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh (DK: $7.8K | O/U: 54 | Implied: 23.5)

While Jeff Sims is certainly raw as a passer, his DFS floor is elevated due to his rushing output. Excluding games against Clemson and Notre Dame, Sims has not scored less than 17 fantasy points in any game this year, primarily due to his rushing ability. He is averaging around 71 rush YPG in those remaining games along with five rushing TDs. From a matchup perspective, Pittsburgh is ranked 81st vs. opposing QBs, allowing 25 FPG. In fact, in their last seven ACC games, the Panthers have surrendered an average of 30 FPG.

They have been particularly vulnerable to dual-threat QB’s. A few examples:

D’Eriq King, Miami (FL): 32 rushing yards
Ian Book, Notre Dame: 40 rushing yards
Hendon Hooker, Virginia Tech: 53 rushing yards
Jordan Travis, Florida State: 80 rushing yards

Consider Jeff Sims a great super-flex option this week with his high floor, little depth at each position on the slate.

Alternatives:

Trey Lowe, Southern Miss vs. FAU (DK: $5.4K | O/U: 42.5 | Implied: 17.0)

Running Backs

James Charles, FAU at Southern Miss (DK: $5.5K | O/U: 42.5 | Implied: 25.5)

James Charles is the last man standing in the FAU backfield. With Malcolm Davidson doubtful and BJ Emmons already ruled out of this contest, Charles will likely carry the load against a Southern Miss run defense allowing 182 rushing YPG.

Willie Taggart loves to run the rock, averaging 41 carries per game and 188 yards on the ground this season. The option behind Charles is former walk-on Daniel Leconte who has all of two career carries for -2 yards. FAU is competing for a spot in the C-USA Championship, so we can expect them to ride Charles in this game. He is relatively cheap at his price point of $5.5K. He is a no-brainer in this slate with his potential volume and favorable matchup.

Vincent Davis, Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech (DK: $5.2K | O/U: 54 | Implied: 30.5)

Vincent Davis is only averaging 3.3 YPC, but is aided by his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield with 24 receptions on the season. In his last two games, Davis is averaging 15.6 FPG on DK. Georgia Tech is allowing 175 rushing YPG, around 30 FPG to opposing RBs.

Georgia Tech has also given up multiple rushing TDs to opposing RBs in six-of-nine games this year. As seven-point favorites, the game script should be favorable towards Davis and his opportunity to receive double-digit carries and hit pay dirt at least once.

Jahmyr Gibbs, Georgia Tech vs Pittsburgh (DK: $8.2K | O/U: 54 | Implied: 23.5) *IF HEALTHY

I’ll preface this write-up by stating that I highly doubt Jahmyr Gibbs will play in this game. He is not listed “above the line” on the GT depth chart which is usually an indication that a player will not be available for their next game. There really is no incentive for Georgia Tech to play Gibbs, risking further injury to their future superstar.

With his receiving prowess and playmaking ability, Gibbs is a must play, when healthy. Unfortunately, I don’t see Jordan Mason as a great option if Gibbs is unable to play. Pittsburgh’s run defense is a top-five unit in the nation allowing only 2.59 YPC and 93 YPG. I’d avoid the Georgia Tech backfield altogether on this slate.

Frank Gore Jr., Southern Miss vs FAU (DK: $7.0K | O/U: 42.5 | Implied: 17.0)

Frank Gore Jr. is the RB1 for USM, receiving double-digit carries in all of his last six games. Over that span, he has posted a pair of 100-yard rushing performances. However, FAU is a top-30 run defense, allowing only 128 rushing YPG, so the matchup is not ideal when taking his price point into consideration.

However, we have seen good RBs have success this year facing FAU with D’Vonte Price and Brenden Knox both racking up 150-plus total yards. With the lack of depth on the slate, Gore is actually a viable option and, quite frankly, Southern Miss’ only hope for pulling off an upset over FAU.

Alternatives:

AJ Davis, Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech (DK: $4.5K | O/U: 54.0 | Implied: 30.5)

Dontae Smith, Georgia Tech vs. Pittsburgh (DK: $3.5K | O/U: 54.o | Implied: 23.5)

Jamious Griffin, Georgia Tech vs. Pittsburgh (DK: $3.2K | O/U: 54.0 | Implied: 23.5)

Kevin Perkins, Southern Miss vs. FAU (DK: $3.8K | O/U: 42.5 | Implied: 17.0)

Daniel Leconte, FAU at Southern Miss (DK: $5.5K | O/U: 42.5 | Implied: 25.5)

Receivers

Jordan Addison, Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech (DK: $7.2K | O/U: 54 | Implied: 30.5)

Jordan Addison arrived on campus with a ton of hype and expectations. He’s proceeded to exceed them in every way, when healthy, this season. Mark Whipple has a long tradition of featuring his slot WRs, funneling them targets in his offense.

Addison has certainly not disappointed as a more explosive version of Maurice Ffrench. He is averaging around nine targets per game, reaching 12-plus fantasy points in all but one game on DK. Addison is the definition of high floor, a core piece in any lineup we are constructing from this slate.

Jared Wayne, Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech (DK: $4.7K | O/U: 54 | Implied: 30.5)

We are targeting Pittsburgh WRs from this slate against a Georgia Tech pass defense ranking 113th vs. opposing WRs allowing 32-plus FPG. Jared Wayne has 60-plus yards receiving in his last two games while receiving the third-most snaps of any WR.

Wayne’s price point of $4.7K is extremely attractive, allowing us to construct a lineup of higher-priced options including Pickett, Sims, and Addison. Wayne is also a nice stacking option alongside Pickett and Addison.

D.J. Turner, Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech (DK: $5.8K | O/U: 54 | Implied: 30.5)

D.J. Turner has taken full advantage of his opportunities out of the slot when filling in for an injured Addison (i.e., against NC State and Virginia Tech). It seems as though Pittsburgh finally realized that Turner was one of their top-three WRs, starting against Clemson in their last game -- as an outside WR, and receiving the second-most snaps at WR behind Jordan Addison.

While his production was limited to three catches for 32 yards, it was noteworthy in that he was second on the team in targets (seven). Like Wayne, Turner gives us a nice stacking option with Addison and Pickett, albeit at a higher price ($5.8K).

Adonicas Sanders, Georgia Tech vs Pittsburgh (DK: $5.3K | O/U: 54 | Implied: 23.5)

Georgia Tech’s WR production has been erratic, inconsistent all year. Jalen Camp seemed to be the clear WR1 early on, but he only has seven total targets over his last three games. Malachi Carter leads the team in targets (41), but is only catching 39 percent of passes thrown his way, and leading the team in drops.

Enter Adonicas Sanders with a breakout game last week vs. NC State with seven receptions for 107 yards on nine targets. Sanders was second among WRs in snaps and certainly has earned additional opportunities to build on his rapport with Jeff Sims. He is the only stacking option I would trust among GT WRs.

Alternatives: