General Rule for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
- Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
- On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spread his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
- On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
- Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
- Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrates on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
- DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
- When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain/MVP
Tom Brady is the best captain choice from the Buccaneers because of the way he spreads the ball around. With all the receivers healthy, playoff Lenny, and both tight ends commanding targets it’s much more likely that if Brady throws for 350 yards and four touchdowns, multiple pass-catchers get involved rather than one player dominates the usage. Mike Evans would be the most likely to steal the captain spot away from Brady with a long touchdown bomb or two. Evans scored twice in the Chiefs and Buccaneers first meeting and he is only a month removed from a 43 point fantasy performance against the Lions. Leonard Fournette makes sense in the captain spot with and without Brady. You can create a correlated lineup around Fournette getting rushing touchdowns, but he can also be used with Brady projecting Fournette’s touchdowns are secured through the air. Chris Godwin won’t be heavily rostered in my captain spot, but I wouldn’t fault anyone for doing so because he has eclipsed 100 yards twice over the last month. I think Godwin can end up the captain if there isn’t a ton of touchdowns scored and he gets there with a 10/100 type lineup.
The Chiefs are the complete opposite of the Buccaneers in that Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce eat up the bulk of the usage for the Chiefs. They have combined for 49% of the Chiefs’ target share and 64% of their air yards share. Hill went for 269 and three touchdowns in the first meeting, but was shut down in the second half of that game. I think he’ll be super owned in the captain spot, which is why I like to get to Kelce, who has dominated throughout the playoffs. Patrick Mahomes can obviously be the captain if he scores a rushing touchdown or gets the tertiary players involved.
There is of course a way that a punt sneaks into the optimal lineup if multiple studs smash and getting one of the flex plays below is the only way you can roster those various studs.
Flex
Darrell Williams is leading off the Flex write up because I feel like he may be the key that unlocks the slate. I almost wrote him up in the captain section and think he is viable there, but he’s probably best suited as a flex play. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was ineffective and didn’t play most of the second half last week and because of this, I like using Williams often in the flex and going a bit lower owned on CEH.
Ronald Jones is inexpensive on all sites and he should be healthier for this game than he has been in a while. If you slot Jones into your captain spot, you’re scripting a Buccaneers win because Jones is not much of a pass-catcher. I would not roster Fournette or Brady with Jones because they’ll negatively impact each other’s bottom line.
Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, and Demarcus Robinson will be the main options to roster from the Chiefs’ tertiary pass-catchers. I like trying to decipher which of the big two these tertiary players negatively correlate with. For instance, Watkins works the short-to-intermediate portion of the field. For me, that means I would lean toward rostering him with Tyreek Hill, but not Kelce. Hardman on the other hand, can be a gadget-type player and also has the speed to take the top off the defense. Hardman seems more likely to take away from Hill than Kelce. Lastly, if he plays, Robinson has touchdown upside, as he’s a big-bodied receiver that is often targeted on jump balls; and usually when Mahomes does the scramble drill and just heaves one high towards the end line. I think Robinson detracts from both because he lowers their touchdown equity, but more so Kelce.
Antonio Brown, Scotty Miller, Rob Gronkowski, and Cameron Brate make up the secondary pass-catchers on the Buccaneers side of the ball. I really like Brate and have been riding him throughout the playoffs. He routinely runs more routes than Gronk and sports less ownership. I like going heavy on Brate and lighter on Gronk as the casuals will all be clicking on Gronk. Scotty Miller makes a lot of sense with Brady at captain because his best shot at being in the optimal lineup is a deep touchdown pass.
Both kickers and DSTs will be on my radar as well in this game. In a high scoring affair in which both teams project to throw the ball a lot, we can reasonably assert that both kickers have a chance at double-digit points. Those dropbacks will also give the defenses a chance to get to the quarterback and have a chance at a pick-six or strip-sack fumble return for a touchdown.
Super Bowl Specific Thoughts
- It’s okay to get a little negative correlation going like playing the Buccaneers defense in a lineup with Mahomes. If the Buccaneers secure two turnovers and a touchdown early, Mahomes will be slinging for the rest of the game.
- While Mahomes is a viable captain, the percentage of casual players in the mix this weekend will drive his captain ownership up massively. With his concentration on Hill and Kelce, I’d rather be heavy on them in captain.
- With how concentrated the Chiefs’ offense is, I think jamming in Mahomes/Hill/Kelce and figuring out the rest could be a viable strategy. Their salaries combined induce a gag reflex so I think many will shy away from that combo
- As I alluded to earlier in the article, you may need to roster someone extremely cheap in the captain spot to jam in four studs.
Lineup Starters
Captain/MVP: Tom Brady
Flex: Mike Evans, Scotty Miller, Travis Kelce
Captain/MVP: Leonard Fournette
Flex: Tom Brady, Tyreek Hill, Cameron Brate
Captain/MVP: Mike Evans
Flex: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman
Captain/MVP: Patrick Mahomes
Flex: Tyreek Hill, Darrell Williams, Chris Godwin
Captain/MVP: Tyreek Hill
Flex: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Scotty Miller
Captain/MVP: Travis Kelce
Flex: Tom Brady, Chris Godwin, Cameron Brate
