Hello and welcome to the Week 3 Sunday AM Update. What is this article? Mostly it’s a follow-up to yesterday’s big DFS piece – Scott Barrett’s Week 3 DFS Breakdown. But this article should also offer some utility for redraft and dynasty players.
Each week I’ll be breaking down the key injuries, news, and notes from Saturday / Sunday and will be updating this article up until kickoff (1PM EST). And I’ll also be providing a sort of TL;DR to yesterday’s big DFS article. Who are my core cash game plays? You can find that at the end of the article.
Key News
- BREAKING: Falcons WR Julio Jones is OUT. Bump up all of Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, and Hayden Hurst. Though I’d argue bump all of them up anyway, as the threat that Jones is ineffective or is actually a true decoy is very real. Last year, Jones and Ridley averaged 14.5 targets per game and 24.2 FPG when one or the other sat out. Gage is averaging 7.9 targets per game since the Mohamed Sanu trade last year. Cosell also loved his tape (consistently hyping him this past offseason), and he’s pretty cheap on FanDuel. Hurst is pretty cheap on FanDuel and posted a 5-72-1 line on 8 targets last week. With tough CBs on the perimeter (Kyle Fuller is terrific and rookie Jaylon Johnson has been one of PFF’s highest-graded CBs thus far), Chicago is looking like the TE funnel defense they were last year. And, for Gage, Slot CB Buster Skrine has been one of PFF’s worst-graded CBs three years in a row. - BREAKING: John Ross is a HEALTHY SCRATCH. Tee Higgins will get the start. - BREAKING: Eagles WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside may have suffered an injury during warmups. This would leave the team with just DeSean Jackson, John Hightower, Greg Ward, and Deontay Burnett at WR.
- 49ers TE George Kittle is OUT. Jordan Reed (8) and Kendrick Bourne (5) were the only players to see more than two targets last week. There are better plays than Bourne, and Reed has been priced up this week, so he’s no longer a top play.
- Falcons' starting LCB A.J. Terrell is OUT. They’re also going to be without CB Kendall Sheffield and S Ricardo Allen. This benefits Allen Robinson (who we already loved) and Darnell Mooney ($3,000 on DraftKings).
- Lions WR Kenny Golladay is LIKELY TO PLAY. True, but he admitted to reporters he’s not yet at 100%. And it didn’t sound like he was close either. Maybe just his presence on the field, will help return Marvin Jones to former glory. Or maybe not. Maybe TE TJ Hockenson is the play against Arizona’s defense that gave up the most FPG to opposing TEs. Conceivably this would also hurt Matthew Stafford and the chances of this game being a shootout (benefitting RB Kenyan Drake).
- Raiders TE Darren Waller and RB Josh Jacobs are QUESTIONABLE but LIKELY TO PLAY. WR Henry Ruggs is out. It sounds like Waller and Jacobs are going to play, though dinged up on a short week of rest. Who touches the ball for Las Vegas. I have no idea. Bryan Edwards and Hunter Renfrow? Do they just get steamrolled? I think that’s likely.
- Rams RB Cam Akers is OUT. As expected. Malcolm Brown is dealing with a fractured pinky finger but likely to play. The Rams currently rank top-10 in team RB FPG, and have ranked top-10 in two of the past three seasons. If someone grabs a stranglehold over this RBBC backfield, they could be a tournament-winner.
- Titans WR A.J. Brown is OUT. As expected. Corey Davis (14.8 FPG) gets a boost as does TE Jonnu Smith (19.0 FPG), who we prefer.
- Cardinals WR Christian Kirk is OUT. As expected. Ideally this is more targets for DeAndre Hopkins (who is rightfully the chalkiest WR on the slate) and a full-time role for Andy Isabella who profiles as a decent boom-or-bust tournament punt.
- Jets WRs Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman are OUT. WR Braxton Berrios is QUESTIONABLE. Yikes. I don’t think we can trust Chris Hogan (8 targets last week), Josh Malone (6), or Chris Herndon (4). Or, really, any player ever coached by HC Adam Gase.
- Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy is QUESTIONABLE but LIKELY TO PLAY. I loved Jeudy coming out of college, and he looks equally dominant on tape against NFL DBs. He’s a solid-to-good play on paper, but this injury is a bit of a concern.
- Texans RB Duke Johnson is QUESTIONABLE and UNLIKELY TO PLAY. If he’s out, David Johnson is a bell cow RB once again (95% of the snaps last week with 11 carries and 4 targets). His matchup last week was difficult (Baltimore). His matchup this week is even tougher (Pittsburgh), though gamescript should be a bit better.
- Broncos RB Philip Lindsay is DOUBTFUL. If he’s out, like with Johnson, Melvin Gordon becomes a bell cow RB once again (79% of the snaps with 19 carries and 3 targets). Like with Johnson, he gets his second-straight brutal matchup (Pittsburgh in Week 2, Tampa Bay this week). On the Jeff Driskel-led Broncos, he’s not really in play.
- Patriots RB James White is OUT. With Cam Newton acting as the goal-line back, and not really getting the RBs involved in the passing game, I don’t think this moves the needle on Sony Michel or Rex Burkhead.
- Patriots WRs Julian Edelman and N’Keal Harry are listed as Questionable but are LIKELY TO PLAY. I think like with what we saw in the second-half last year, Edelman is a little more hurt than he’s leading on. So, I’m not really going to play him. But Harry (if he plays) and Damiere Byrd are solid punt-options on Cam Newton lineups. (Though you don’t ever need to stack Cam.)
- Colts TE Jack Doyle is LIKELY TO PLAY. As expected. I think this pushes Mo Alie-Cox out of consideration, but, with Parris Campbell also OUT, he may again see a featured role.
- Chargers WR Justin Jackson is DOUBTFUL. If he plays it’d be worth reeling back some exposure to Josh Kelley and/or Austin Ekeler, but I don’t see that happening.
- Packers WR Davante Adams is DOUBTFUL for SNF.
- Saints WR Michael Thomas is OUT for SNF.
Key Questions
The 3 Biggest Questions in DFS this week are:
- How do we attack the game with the highest over/under of the slate (DAL@SEA)?
- How do we attack the game with the second-highest over/under of the slate (DET@ARI)?
- With the chalk consisting nearly entirely of all of the players in these games, plus Miles Sanders and Jonathan Taylor, how do we differentiate ourselves in tournaments? With the chalk so highly condensed around two games and then two other players, like with last week, this is a great week to get weird in tournaments, and to look for leverage. How might Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, and their receivers fail to live up to the hype? Could Seattle revert back to their old instincts and lean heavy on Chris Carson via the run game? How might Miles Sanders or Jonathan Taylor fail to live up to their expectations? And, like with Aaron Jones last week, who is going a bit overlooked but who has tournament-winning potential? Could it be someone like Tyler Boyd (3.6% projected ownership), who Wes Huber hyped up quite a bit here? Or maybe James Conner (6.4%), Joshua Kelley (6.7%), or David Montgomery (3.0%) in top matchups? These are the sorts of questions you need to be asking yourselves.
Cash Core (DK/FD)
QB: Kyler Murray (DK), Cam Newton (FD)
RB: Miles Sanders, Jonathan Taylor, Kenyan Drake, Ezekiel Elliott, Chris Carson, Devin Singletary (DK)
WR: DeAndre Hopkins, Diontae Johnson, Allen Robinson, Darius Slayton, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper
TE: Logan Thomas / Dalton Schultz / Drew Sample
DEF: CAR (DK), NYG (DK), ATL (FD), NE, IND
