Hello and welcome to the Week 10 Update. What is this article? Mostly it’s a follow-up to yesterday’s big DFS piece – Scott Barrett’s Week 10 DFS Breakdown. But this article should also offer some utility for redraft and dynasty players.
Each week I’ll be breaking down the key injuries, news, and notes from Saturday / Sunday and will be updating this article up until kickoff (1PM EST). And I’ll also be providing a sort of TL;DR to yesterday’s big DFS article. Who are my core cash game plays? You can find that at the end of the article.
Key News
- BREAKING: Per Adam Schefter, “Cardinals’ RB Kenyan Drake, listed as questionable due for Sunday to an ankle injury, has a good chance to play vs. the Bills, per source. Arizona sounds optimistic and hopeful about his availability, but the Cardinals want to test Drake in pre-game warmups and see how he feels.” RB Chase Edmonds is no longer in play, outside of for late-swaps in the off-chance Drake is out.
- BREAKING: Per Adam Schefter, "Dolphins’ RB Matt Breida, listed as questionable for Sunday due to a hamstring injury, is not expected to play vs. the Chargers, per source. Breida has a good chance to return next week."
- BREAKING: Per Ian Rapoport, Lions TE T.J. Hockenson is EXPECTED TO PLAY.
- BREAKING: Per Ian Rapoport, Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy is EXPECTED TO PLAY.
- BREAKING: Per Ian Rapoport, Dolphins RB Matt Breida is NOT EXPECTED TO PLAY.
- BREAKING: Per Ian Rapoport, Cardinals CB Dre Kirkpatrick and S Budda Baker are EXPECTED TO PLAY.
CB Dre Kirkpatrick (thigh) and S Budda Baker (groin) should also be good.
- Rams RB Darrell Henderson Jr. WILL PLAY.
- Browns RB Nick Chubb WILL PLAY.
- Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy is QUESTIONABLE but EXPECTED TO PLAY.
- Cardinals RB Kenyan Drake is a true GAMETIME DECISION.
- Lions TE T.J. Hockenson is QUESTIONABLE.
- Packers TE Robert Tonyan is QUESTIONABLE.
- Chargers RB Troymaine Pope is QUESTIONABLE.
- Dolphins RB Matt Breida is QUESTIONABLE.
- Lions TE T.J. Hockenson is QUESTIONABLE.
- Packers TE Robert Tonyan is QUESTIONABLE.
- Chargers RB Troymaine Pope is QUESTIONABLE.
- Dolphins RB Matt Breida is QUESTIONABLE.
- Giants WR Golden Tate is QUESTIONABLE.
- Bengals RB Joe Mixon is OUT.
- Seahawks RBs Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde are OUT. RB Alex Collins has been activated from the practice squad.
- Chargers RB Justin Jackson is OUT.
- Texans RB David Johnson is OUT.
- Packers WR Allen Lazard is OUT.
- Bills CB Josh Norman and TE Tyler Kroft are OUT.
- Lions WR Kenny Golladay is OUT.
- Jaguars WR Laviska Shenault is OUT.
- 49ers WR Deebo Samuel is OUT.
- 49ers RBs Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, & Jeff Wilson are OUT.
- Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey is OUT.
- The New York Giants have added RB Alfred Morris to the active roster.
- Buccaneers CB Carlton Davis is LIKELY TO PLAY.
- Seahawks DT Damon Harrison was elevated from the practice squad. The Seattle Seahawks are on pace to give up the most passing yards by any defense all-time, and by a whopping 998 passing yards. Harrison is one of the league’s best run-stuffers but is weak everywhere else. So, basically, a historically bad pass funnel defense just got even more pass funnel-ish. Downgrade Darrell Henderson. A slight upgrade to Jared Goff and his receivers.
Chalk
- According to our Ownership Projections, powered by FanShare, the highest-owned players are likely to be:
DraftKings
1.Mike Davis (32.1%)
2. Aaron Jones (30.0%)
3. Davante Adams (28.3%)
4. Stefon Diggs (26.5%)
5. Antonio Gibson (19.1%)
6. Duke Johnson (19.1%)
7. Chase Edmonds (18.1%)
8. Cooper Kupp (18.1%)
9. Alvin Kamara (15.8%)
10. J.D. McKissic (14.9%)
FanDuel
1. Stefon Diggs (36.5%)
2. Aaron Jones (32.9%)
3. Mike Davis (32.9%)
4. Davante Adams (28.3%)
5. Alvin Kamara (22.8%)
6. Antonio Gibson (19.1%)
7. Duke Johnson (19.1%)
8. DeAndre Hopkins (17.5%)
9. Cooper Kupp (16.5%)
10. J.D. McKissic (14.9%)
Things I Think
Weather Concerns: Per Cleveland.com, there are major weather concerns for Texans @ Browns at FirstEnergy stadium. “A high wind advisory is in effect until 11PM, with southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts up to 60 mph expected.” This is really not good, and looking a lot like the mess of a game we saw in Week 8. Downgrade everyone but the RBs.
Bengals @ Steelers will have sustained winds around 20-30 mph with gusts of up to 50 mph. All passing-game options should be downgraded. Lower-aDOT receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster (5.8), Eric Ebron (8.0), Diontae Johnson (8.2) and Tyler Boyd (8.6) are less negatively impacted, but this still hurts all passing-game options. Expect both teams to lean more run-heavy than typical.
Jaguars @ Packers will have some light snow (flurries) and sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts of up to 45 mph. Slight upgrade to Aaron Jones and James Robinson. Downgrade all passing-game options. Davante Adams is no longer chalk. And DJ Chark is no longer a Tier 2 play….
Our list of WR plays yesterday was a little light. Some guys we left out: Robby Anderson (talked about him here as a top value), Jerry Jeudy (FD), Chris Conley, Keelan Cole, and Curtis Samuel are also fine / in play, other guys like Christian Kirk, Tyler Boyd, and Brandon Aiyuk are fine for stacks (even mini-stacks), but they’d all be below some of the other similarly-priced names we discussed….
Of the Tier 1 / Tier 2 plays we discussed, here’s who is looking to go lower owned, per our Ownership Projections (powered by FanShare).
- Tier 1 RB play, Miles Sanders projects to be just the 10th-highest-priced RB on the slate. That was surprising and would be a mistake.
- Tier 2 RB play, Giovani Bernard projects to be only 3% owned. He’s definitely not as good of a play (on-paper) as Mike Davis, Duke Johnson, or Chase Edmonds (if Drake is out), but he would be a decent leverage play against them. (Though you’d still have a similar to build to all of the other cheap-RB lineups, so you’d really need him to smash and for them to flop in order to win big.)
- Tier 3 RB play Nick Chubb is very interesting relative to upside vs. projected ownership (6.8%)
- Tier 1 WR play Devante Parker is <10% owned on both sites.
- Tier 2 WR plays on FanDuel, Diontae Johnson (7%) and Chase Claypool (4%) project to go low owned.
- We love Tom Brady this week, and he projects to be just 3% owned, while offering massive upside. The same can be said for Drew Brees (2.1%). His stacking options are far more highly owned, but also far more obvious…
Leverage is tough this week. Mike Davis is one of the best values of the entire season, but he’ll also draw the highest ownership of any player we’ve seen all season. A way to go contrarian on him (and Duke Johnson) is to pay up for RBs. Aaron Jones is chalky, but a way to go unique would be to pair him with Alvin Kamara or (someone like) Nick Chubb. That paid off in a big way last week with Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey. Really, leverage is difficult this week. Just make sure no individual lineup is too chalky. Try to find some way to be a little unique.
Cash Core (DK/FD)
QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Mike Davis, Aaron Jones, Miles Sanders, Duke Johnson, Alvin Kamara
WR: Michael Thomas (DK), Tyler Lockett, Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, DeVante Parker, Keenan Allen, Terry McLaurin, Diontae Johnson (FD), Chase Claypool (FD), Josh Reynolds
TE: Dallas Goedert, Darren Waller
DEF: Lions (DK), Rams (DK), Raiders (FD), Panthers (FD), Saints (DK)
