By Josh Chevalier, CFB DFS Analyst
Saturday’s four-game slate is sadly the final one of the year for college football.
Like many of the other bowl slates, this one is filled with questions due to injuries and opt-outs. Can Mississippi continue to score points without their top RB & three best receiving options? Will UNC show up versus a motivated Texas A&M after opt-outs from their top three offensive players or will they pull a Florida? Should we stack the entire Indiana offense facing a terrible Mississippi defense?
While there might be a bit of uncertainty in this slate, it is still filled with teams who are fun to watch and can put up points no matter who is in the lineup. Let’s dig in.
Against the Spread Picks
Texas A&M (-7.5) vs. UNC
North Carolina State (-2.5) vs. Kentucky
Iowa State (-4) vs. Oregon
Indiana (-8) vs Mississippi
Total Wagers
Texas A&M vs. UNC (Under 65.5)
North Carolina State vs. Kentucky (Over 50)
Iowa State vs. Oregon (Over 58)
Indiana vs Mississippi (Under 65)
Quarterbacks
Kellen Mond, Texas A&M vs. UNC (DK: $7.8K | FD: $10.2K | O/U: 65.5 | Implied: 36.5)
Kellen Mond is a great Cash/SE play this week as he has a higher floor than his 22.5 FPG would suggest. Mond has put up 25-plus FPs in four of his last five games. One of the big keys for Mond’s fantasy success is his running ability. When he rushes for 30-plus yards, he produces at least 25.6 FPs. Mond is facing a UNC DEF that has been terrible versus the opposing QBs ranking 113th and giving up 28.2 FPG. In games that UNC allowed 30-plus rushing yards to opposing QBs, they averaged 29.1 FPG. Mond is the safest option on this slate despite being the 3rd-highest priced QB.
Sam Howell, UNC vs. Texas A&M (DK: $8.2K | FD: $9.4K | O/U: 65.5 | Implied: 29.0)
Under normal circumstances, I’d be highly recommending Sam Howell in this slate as he leads a top-10 offense in both yards and scoring. Even if only Michael Carter and Javonte Williams opted out, I’d still be confident. However, losing his top WR Dyami Brown makes me a bit more cautious.
I’m a huge fan of UNC OC Phil Longo and Sam Howell, but that is a lot of talent and production to lose in a short period of time. The cupboard is not bare though as Brown’s little brother, Khafre Brown, and Emery Simmons have shown they can produce.
Sam Howell is averaging 319 pass YPG and 26.8 FPG despite a slow start to the year. If UNC has any shot of pulling off the upset in this game, it will have to be through the air as Texas A&M is only allowing 92.2 rush YPG, ranking 4th in the country. Howell might be worth playing simply for the volume he will put up in the passing game as game script and matchups will necessitate him carrying the team.
Jack Tuttle, Indiana vs Mississippi (DK: $6.8K | FD: $8.7K | O/U: 65.0 | Implied: 36.5)
Jack Tuttle being in this write-up is purely a matchup play considering his price point and opponent. Mississippi has been terrible versus opposing QBs all year ranking 128th allowing 32 FPG. Their last two games facing true freshman QBs, Mississippi’s DEF gave up an average of 437.5 yards and 3 TDs through the air. I’m not saying Tuttle will put up those numbers, but he has two really good WRs in Ty Fryfogle and Whop Philyor that can take advantage of Mississippi’s poor secondary. Tuttle is a good play that allows us salary relief to fit someone like Breece Hall into our lineup.
Matt Corral, Mississippi vs. Indiana (DK: $9.5K | FD: $11.0K | O/U: 65.0 | Implied: 28.5)
Matt Corral is the highest-priced QB on this slate and should always be in consideration after averaging 34.1 FPG this year. While Indiana is pretty good defensively, they are merely average versus the pass as they are giving up 226 YPG and 22.7 FPG. My big concern for Corrall is the same one I have for Sam Howell and had for Kyle Trask. Can he overcome potentially losing his top three receiving options and top RB? I don’t have a great answer for that, but $9.5K is a lot to pay for a guy that I’m not sure can put up 30-plus FPs. I feel safer investing in his cheap WR targets on the slate than Corral personally.
Alternatives:
Tyler Shough, Oregon vs Iowa State (DK: $8.0K | FD: $9.6K | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 27.0)
Brock Purdy, Iowa State vs. Oregon (DK: $7.4K | FD: $8.9K | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 31.0)
Bailey Hockman, North Carolina State vs. Kentucky (DK: $6.5K | FD: $7.4K | O/U: 50.0 | Implied: 24.0)
Running Backs
Breece Hall, Iowa State vs. Oregon (DK: $8.7K | FD: $10.7K | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 31.0)
Breece Hall is the model of consistency and an ideal player to roster in Cash/SE slates. His lowest scoring output of the year is 15.1 FPs. He is averaging 30.1 FPG meaning he hits value almost every time despite his high price-point. Oregon rush DEF is a great matchup for Breece Hall as they are allowing 159.8 rush YPG and 28.5 FPG.
When facing top RBs this year, Oregon has struggled mightily. Demetric Felton had 34 carries for 164 yards and TDs while Jermar Jefferson had 29 carries for 226 yards and TDs. While those RBs are good, they are not Breece Hall. The game plan should be easy. Give it to Breece Hall. He is a lock in this slate.
Stevie Scott, Indiana vs Mississippi (DK: $5.3K | FD: $9.3K | O/U: 65.0 | Implied: 36.5)
Stevie Scott is a conflicting player to write about in DFS. On the one hand, he averages 20-plus touches and a TD per game. On the other hand, he is extremely inefficient with those touches having never eclipsed 100 yards rushing this year. However, with his volume, price-point and this matchup versus a horrible Mississippi run DEF, Scott is a must in our lineup. Mississippi is giving up 211 rush YPG and 36 FPG to opposing RBs. With Scott being the dominant RB1, this should be a game where he rushes for 100-plus yards and multiple TDs. At $5.3K, he will definitely hit value and will be highly owned in this slate.
Isaiah Spiller, Texas A&M vs. UNC (DK: $6.7K | FD: $9.5K | O/U: 65.5 | Implied: 36.5)
Isaiah Spiller has been on a tear this year putting up 14-plus FPs versus every team not named Alabama. Isaiah Spiller receives the volume we covet out of our RBs in DFS with 20-plus touches in each of his last games. Over that stretch, he is averaging 25.1 FPG. Favored by 7.5 points, I expect Texas A&M to lean on Spiller in the second half. With the highest implied team total on the slate, I think we need one of Isaiah Spiller or Ainias Smith in our lineup. I’m leaning slightly towards Spiller in Cash/SE slates.
Ainias Smith, Texas A&M vs. UNC (DK: $6.2K | FD: $8.8K | O/U: 65.5 | Implied: 36.5)
If you need to save some salary or you simply prefer to stack him with Kellen Mond, Ainias Smith is a great option. He is listed as a RB, but lines up all over the field. In fact, he is leading the team in receiving TDs (6) and is second in every other receiving statistical category. UNC is ranked 84th in Pass DEF allowing 284 YPG so there will be plenty of opportunities for Smith to influence this game. Smith is a great Cash/SE option producing double-digit FPs in all but one game this year.
Alternatives:
Chris Rodriguez, Kentucky vs. North Carolina State (DK: $7.5K | FD: $9.0K | O/U: 50.0 | Implied: 26.0)
Zonovan Knight, North Carolina State vs. Kentucky (DK: $5.9K | FD: $7.9K | O/U: 50.0 | Implied: 24.0)
Travis Dye, Oregon vs Iowa State (DK: $5.5K | FD: $8.4K | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 27.0)
Henry Parrish Jr., Mississippi vs. Indiana (DK: $5.7K | FD: $6.3K | O/U: 65.0 | Implied: 28.5)
Josh Henderson, UNC vs. Texas A&M (DK: $5.0K | FD: $5.5K | O/U: 65.5 | Implied: 29.0)
$4.5K-or-less options:
Snoop Conner, Mississippi vs. Indiana (DK: $6.9K | FD: $10.8K | O/U: 65.0 | Implied: 28.5)
British Brooks, UNC vs. Texas A&M (DK: $3.1K | FD: $5.7K | O/U: 65.5 | Implied: 29.0)
Sean Dollars, Oregon vs Iowa State (DK: $3.1K | FD: $4.9K | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 27.0)
Receivers
Ty Fryfogle, Indiana vs Mississippi (DK: $6.3K | FD: $9.2K | O/U: 65.0 | Implied: 36.5)
I touched on how bad the Mississippi pass DEF is above, but to reiterate, they are terrible. Against opposing WR units, Mississippi is ranked 130th allowing 55.1 FPG. Ty Fryfogle has two games where he put up 46-plus FPs and another one with 30.2 FPs. He can hit big with the right matchup. He should be chalk in Cash/SE slates so he needs to be in our lineup. I’d recommend trying to stack both Ty Fryfogle and Whop Philyor with Jack Tuttle considering their affordable salaries.
Dazz Newsome, UNC vs. Texas A&M (DK: $5.7K | FD: $8.6K | O/U: 65.5 | Implied: 29.0)
Dazz Newsome is the last man standing among the top four skill position players for UNC. While coaches are saying they will not call the offense any different than normal, I do not see how UNC is going to have success on the ground versus Texas A&M. However, Texas A&M is more vulnerable through the air giving up 224 pass YPG and is ranked 69th versus opposing WR units allowing 38.5 FPG. Expect pass-heavy play calling from UNC and for Newsome to be the primary beneficiary. At only $5.7K on DK, Newsome is going to hit value in this slate and is a great Cash/SE play in a slate lacking top WR options outside of Ty Fryfogle.
Xavier Hutchinson, Iowa State vs. Oregon (DK: $5.5K | FD: $7.8K | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 31.0)
Xavier Hutchinson has been sneaky good this year for Iowa State and fairly consistent as well. In seven of his last nine games, Hutchinson has scored 16-plus fantasy points making him a great Cash/SE play. On top of that, Oregon has really struggled versus opposing WR units allowing them to score 44.1 FPG (Rank: 98). Hutchinson is leading the team in targets, catches and yards by a wide margin so he should get most of the production at WR in this game.
Dontario Drummond, Mississippi vs. Indiana (DK: $4.7K | FD: $6.9K | O/U: 65.0 | Implied: 28.5)
With Braylon Sanders likely out, Dontario Drummond and Jonathan Mingo are the top WR options for Ole Miss. While Jonathan Mingo had two more targets than Drummond last game, it was Drummond who scored a TD for his fourth straight game. He also scored at least 11.6 FPs in each game over that span. While Mingo has shown higher potential upside, I trust Drummond’s consistency more in Cash/SE slates. Both are in play, because of their cheap salaries if you choose to stack the Ole Miss passing attack.
Alternatives:
Charlie Kolar, Iowa State vs. Oregon (DK: $5.4K | FD: $7.5K | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 31.0)
Whop Philyor, Indiana vs Mississippi (DK: $4.9K | FD: $7.7K | O/U: 65.0 | Implied: 36.5)
Jalen Wydermyer, Texas A&M vs. UNC (DK: $6.0K | FD: $8.3K | O/U: 65.5 | Implied: 36.5)
$4.5K-or-less options:
Peyton Hendershot, Indiana vs Mississippi (DK: $4.1K | FD: $6.8K | O/U: 65.0 | Implied: 36.5)
Hunter Kampmoyer, Oregon vs Iowa State (DK: $3.7K | FD: $6.1K | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 27.0)
Chase Lane, Texas A&M vs. UNC (DK: $6.0K | FD: 6.1K | O/U: 65.5 | Implied: 36.5)
Jonathan Mingo, Mississippi vs. Indiana (DK: $4.4K | FD: $6.4K | O/U: 65.0 | Implied: 28.5)
Khafre Brown, UNC vs. Texas A&M (DK: $3.5K | FD: $5.8K | O/U: 65.5 | Implied: 29.0)
Emery Simmons, UNC vs. Texas A&M (DK: $3.8K | FD: $5.6K | O/U: 65.5 | Implied: 29.0)
Josh Downs, UNC vs. Texas A&M (DK: $3.0K | FD: $4.2K | O/U: 65.5 | Implied: 29.0)
Antoine Green, UNC vs. Texas A&M (DK: $4.2K | FD: $5.2K | O/U: 65.5 | Implied: 29.0)
Josh Chevalier started playing CFB DFS when it was introduced on DK in 2015. Since its return to DK in 2018, he has provided in-depth weekly articles & analysis specializing in Cash/SE contests. Follow Josh on Twitter:@CFFguys
