By Josh Chevalier, CFB DFS Analyst
Saturday’s three-game slate features some of the best Group of 5 teams and players in college football.
The FBC Mortgage Cure Bowl (Coastal Carolina vs. Liberty) features two top-notch teams who were supposed to play earlier this month, but Covid-19 issues led to the game being canceled. Coastal Carolina and Liberty have a combined one loss, and two QBs who have racked up fantasy points throughout the year. Then we have the SERVPRO First Responder Bowl (Louisiana vs. UTSA) featuring two top-25 rushing attacks and a personal favorite of ours in Sincere McCormick. The last bowl game on the slate is the LendingTree Bowl (Georgia State vs. Western Kentucky) that features two teams that rank in the top-10 in turnovers per game, one that ranks in the bottom-10 in offense. Needless to say, we won’t have too much exposure to that game
This is a slate with a few solid QB options, which is a nice change from Wednesday, and some of the best RBs among the non-Power 5 schools. Unfortunately, that means quality WRs are tough to come by in this slate so we will have to find good matchups and value. Let’s dig into the slate.
Against the Spread Picks
Coastal Carolina (-7.5) vs. Liberty
UTSA (+14) vs. Louisiana
Georgia State (-3.5) vs. Western Kentucky
Total Wagers
Coastal Carolina vs. Liberty (Over 59.5)
UTSA vs. Louisiana (Over 56.5)
Georgia State vs. Western Kentucky (Under 50.5)
Quarterbacks
Grayson McCall, Coastal Carolina vs. Liberty (DK: $8.8K | FD: $10.8K | O/U: 59.5 | Implied: 33.0)
Grayson McCall started off the 2020 season in impressive fashion (36.6 FPs) and has not looked back as he led Coastal Carolina to an undefeated season (11-0). He is your ideal QB in college football as he makes plays with his arm and feet. McCall is a great Cash/SE play scoring 23-plus FPG and throwing for 2-plus TDs in 9-of-11 games this year. In addition to that, he has run for 40-plus yards in 8-of-11 games with six rushing TDs. In this three-game slate, McCall is going to be highly-owned with limited upside options at QB.
Malik Willis, Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina (DK: $9.2K | FD: $10.4 | O/U: 59.5 | Implied: 26.0)
Malik Willis’ season has been eerily similar to McCall’s except even better. Willis produced 27-plus FPs in 5-of-6 games topping 43-plus points in three of those games. He is extremely dynamic rushing for 85-plus yards in 4 games and throwing for 285-plus in 3. The one downside is that he got Covid-19 earlier this month and just recently returned to the practice field.
While Willis should still be himself, there are questions about his conditioning and potential rust from not playing in a month. In fact, Liberty paused all football activities for two weeks due to Covid issues. Even with his high salary ($9.2K) and question marks, Willis is going to be hard to fade due to his high floor/ceiling in Cash/SE contests.
Cornelius Brown IV, Georgia State vs. Western Kentucky (DK: $6.9K | FD: $9.2 | O/U: 50.5 | Implied: 27.0)
If you choose to fade McCall or Willis, then Cornelius Brown is the pivot. Brown is averaging 21.9 FPG topping 20 FPs in 6-of-8 games this year. Brown is another dual-threat QB on this slate averaging 225 pass YPG and 29 rush YPG. Dual-threat QBs had success versus Western Kentucky this year. In the 5 games that QBs rushed for 29-plus yards, they averaged 29.8 FPG versus Western Kentucky. If Brown is going to have success versus Western Kentucky, then it will have to be on the ground as they are top-10 pass D only allowing 170.1 yards through the air.
Alternatives:
Levi Lewis, Louisiana vs UTSA (DK: $7.6K | FD: $8.7 | O/U: 56.0 | Implied: 35.0)
Running Backs
CJ Marable, Coastal Carolina vs. Liberty (DK: $9.0K | FD: $10.2 | O/U: 59.5 | Implied: 33.0)
CJ Marable is peaking at the right time with three straight 120-plus yard rushing games scoring at least 32 FPs in each. Over that span, Marable averaged 22 touches and scored 8 TDs. With Coastal Carolina facing a top-10 pass D in Liberty, I expect them to lean heavily on the ground. However, Liberty is top-30 against the run and they are only giving up 128.4 YPG. If Marable wasn’t so expensive, I’d recommend locking him in your lineup, but his price point means potentially sacrificing Grayson McCall or Malik Willis, which is tough with limited QB options in this slate.
Sincere McCormick, UTSA vs. Louisiana (DK: $8.0K | FD: $9.5 | O/U: 56.0 | Implied: 21.0)
Sincere McCormick is one of my absolute favorite players in CFB. I remember watching him live in an open practice when he was a true freshman in August of 2019. He was so dynamic and clearly the best player on the field even as a freshman. In 2020, a year full of disappointments, Sincere McCormick was certainly not one of them as he exploded onto the national scene averaging 24.9 FPG. Scoring 17-plus FPs in 9-of-11 games this year and averaging 24 touches per game, McCormick provides the volume and floor you want in a Cash/SE lineup.
Sincere McCormick is $8.0K so you’re probably choosing between him and CJ Marable. I’d choose McCormick for a few reasons. The main reason is the matchup versus a Louisiana run D that is ranked 84th allowing 180 rush YPG. The other reason is the salary relief as McCormick is $1.0K cheaper than Marable, which will help us fill in our lineup. Lock McCormick in and enjoy watching him play if it’s your first time.
Elijah Mitchell, Louisiana vs UTSA (DK: $6.4K | FD: $9.0 | O/U: 56.0 | Implied: 35.0)
Elijah Mitchell forms a dynamic duo at RB for Louisiana with Trey Ragas. Mitchell is averaging 16.1 FPG and faces a middling UTSA rush DEF giving up 150 YPG and 25.4 FPG to opposing RBs. With Louisiana favored by 14, the game script will be in favor of the running game making Mitchell a great Cash/SE play as he has scored double-digit fantasy points in every game this year after Game 1 despite splitting carries evenly with Ragas.
Trey Ragas, Louisiana vs UTSA (DK: $5.9K | FD: $8.8 | O/U: 56.0 | Implied: 35.0)
Trey Ragas is $500 cheaper on DK despite averaging the same amount of FPG (16.2) as Elijah Mitchell. Mitchell receives more carries per game, but Ragas has 5 more TDs this year. I think we need one of Ragas or Mitchell in our lineups. Ragas is a safer option for the aforementioned reasons and should be a lock in our lineups. I do think it’s viable to play both Mitchell and Ragas in Cash/SE lineups as they are both better options than the other potential choices in their salary range.
Alternatives:
Joshua Mack, Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina (DK: $6.2K | FD: $7.2 | O/U: 59.5 | Implied: 26.0)
Gaej Walker, Western Kentucky vs Georgia State (DK: $5.0K | FD: $6.7 | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 31.0)
Destin Coates, Georgia State vs. Western Kentucky (DK: $5.5K | FD: $7.4 | O/U: 50.5 | Implied: 27.0)
$4.5K-or-less options:
Reese White, Coastal Carolina vs. Liberty (DK: $3.6K | FD: $5.7 | O/U: 59.5 | Implied: 33.0)
Chris Smith, Louisiana vs UTSA (DK: $3.3K | FD: $5.4 | O/U: 56.0 | Implied: 35.0)
Tucker Gregg, Georgia State vs. Western Kentucky (DK: $4.3K | FD: $6.4 | O/U: 50.5 | Implied: 27.0)
Receivers
Sam Pinckney, Georgia State vs. Western Kentucky (DK: $6.8K | FD: $8.7 | O/U: 50.5 | Implied: 27.0)
Sam Pinckney is the highest scoring WR on this slate at 20.8 FPG. He has been hot over his last three games averaging 23.5 FPG. Western Kentucky is tough versus opposing WRs only giving up 28.5 FPG, ranking 12th in college football. However, Pinckney is the dominant WR1 for Georgia State leading the team in every receiving statistical category by a wide margin. He has a 25-percent share or more of the team’s targets, receptions, receiving yards and TDs. Even if Western Kentucky limits the Georgia State passing attack, Pinckney still has a plausible path for production. There are no clear cut WR options on this slate, but Pinckney is the best option IMO.
Jaivon Heiligh, Coastal Carolina vs. Liberty (DK: $7.1K | FD: $9.4 | O/U: 59.5 | Implied: 33.0)
Jaivon Heiligh is the highest-priced WR on this slate after a dominant performance versus Troy. Similar to Sam Pinckney, Heiligh is the dominant WR1 for Coastal Carolina, leading the team in every receiving statistical category by a wide margin. He has 15-plus FPs in 9-of-11 games this year giving you a solid floor at the WR position. If Coastal Carolina has success through the air, Heiligh will be the major contributor. However, there is some risk involved at his price point and facing a top-5 Liberty pass DEF versus opposing WRs in fantasy scoring. Also, if you choose to play Heiligh or Pinckney, you’re probably doing so in place of Elijah Mitchell or Trey Ragas, who have the better matchups. For this reason, Heiligh could be a good contrarian play with a lower ownership percentage.
Isaiah Likely, Coastal Carolina vs. Liberty (DK: $4.6K | FD: $6.6 | O/U: 59.5 | Implied: 33.0)
Isaiah Likely is the 2nd leading WR for the Chanticleers. He is averaging 12.6 FPG, but is priced at only $4.6K on DK so he could very well hit value in this slate. In fact, he has scored 11-plus FPs in 9-of-11 games this year. He is the best option in this slate at his price range and allows you to spend up on QBs and RBs without too much risk. He should have a high ownership percentage making him an attractive option in Cash/SE slates.
Dakota Thomas, Western Kentucky vs. Georgia State (DK: $4.4K | FD: $5.6 | O/U: 50.5 | Implied: 23.5)
Dakota Thomas made his impact felt last game versus Charlotte leading the team in targets, receptions, and yards in his first game action of the year. He should continue to see extended action with Xavier Lane not expected to play. Georgia State is easily the worst pass D on the slate giving up 284 YPG through the air. Unfortunately, Western Kentucky has struggled all year throwing the ball averaging only 164 YPG. However, that might be their only option versus a stingy Georgia State D that is ranked top-40 versus the run. With limited quality options at WR on this slate, Thomas is a player that I’m highly considering. If his limited game action concerns you, his teammate Mitchell Tinsley has been the leading WR all year and is only $4.7K making him a nice pivot play.
Alternatives:
Kevin Shaa, Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina (DK: $5.5K | FD: $6.2 | O/U: 59.5 | Implied: 26.0)
Mitchell Tinsley, Western Kentucky vs. Georgia State (DK: $4.7K | FD: $6.2 | O/U: 50.5 | Implied: 23.5)
Cornelius McCoy, Georgia State vs. Western Kentucky (DK: $5.3K | FD: $7.0 | O/U: 50.5 | Implied: 27.0)
Zakhari Franklin, UTSA vs. Louisiana (DK: $5.8K | FD: $7.2 | O/U: 56.0 | Implied: 21.0)
$4.5K-or-less options:
DJ Stubbs, Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina (DK: $3.8K | FD: $6.9 | O/U: 59.5 | Implied: 26.0)
Kyren Lacy, Louisiana vs UTSA (DK: $4.0K | FD: $5.9 | O/U: 56.0 | Implied: 35.0)
Peter LeBlanc, Louisiana vs UTSA (DK: $3.6K | FD: $6.7 | O/U: 56.0 | Implied: 35.0)
Kameron Brown, Coastal Carolina vs. Liberty (DK: $3.6K | FD: $5.7 | O/U: 59.5 | Implied: 33.0)
CJ Yarbrough, Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina (DK: $3.2K | FD: $5.0 | O/U: 59.5 | Implied: 26.0) *IF HEALTHY
Joshua Simon, Western Kentucky vs. Georgia State (DK: $3.7K | FD: $5.4 | O/U: 50.5 | Implied: 23.5)
Craig Burt Jr., Western Kentucky vs. Georgia State (DK: $3.1K | FD: $5.1 | O/U: 50.5 | Implied: 23.5)
Josh Chevalier started playing CFB DFS when it was introduced on DK in 2015. Since its return to DK in 2018, he has provided in-depth weekly articles & analysis specializing in Cash/SE contests. Follow Josh on Twitter: @CFFguys