My power ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season.
I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant. I hope you find these ratings useful and good luck with your wagers!
Example: My top-rated team, the Buccaneers (7.5), would be 15.5-point favorites on a neutral field over my worst-rated team, the Texans (-8). Using a typical three-point adjustment for home-field advantage, the Bucs would be 18.5-point favorites over the Texans at home and 12.5-point favorites over the Texans on the road.
| Rank | Team | Power Rating | 2021 Record (ATS) | Ratings Change | Super Bowl LVI Odds |
| 1. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7.5 | 6-1 (3-4) | +1 | +550 |
| 2. | Buffalo Bills | 7 | 4-2 (4-2) | — | +550 |
| 3. | Arizona Cardinals | 6.5 | 7-0 (6-1) | +.5 | +900 |
| 4. | Los Angeles Rams | 6.5 | 6-1 (4-3) | — | +800 |
| 5. | Green Bay Packers | 6 | 6-1 (6-1) | +.5 | +1200 |
| 6. | Dallas Cowboys | 5.5 | 5-1 (6-0) | — | +1400 |
| 7. | Baltimore Ravens | 5 | 5-2 (3-4) | -.5 | +1200 |
| 8. | Los Angeles Chargers | 4 | 4-2 (4-2) | — | +1800 |
| 9. | Kansas City Chiefs | 3.5 | 3-4 (2-5) | -1 | +1400 |
| 10. | Tennessee Titans | 3 | 5-2 (5-2) | +1 | +1800 |
| 11. | Cleveland Browns | 2.5 | 4-3 (4-3) | +.5 | +2500 |
| 12. | Cincinnati Bengals | 2 | 5-2 (4-3) | +1 | +3500 |
| 13. | Indianapolis Colts | 2 | 3-4 (5-2) | +1 | +5000 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 2 | 4-2 (3-3) | -.5 | +4000 |
| 16. | Las Vegas Raiders | 1.5 | 5-2 (4-3) | +1 | +5000 |
| 16. | Minnesota Vikings | 1.5 | 3-3 (3-3) | — | +10000 |
| 17 | San Francisco 49ers | 1.5 | 2-4 (1-5) | -.5 | +6500 |
| 18. | New England Patriots | .5 | 3-4 (3-4) | +.5 | +10000 |
| 19. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 0 | 3-3 (2-4) | — | +10000 |
| 20. | Denver Broncos | -.5 | 3-4 (3-4) | -1 | +15000 |
| 21. | Atlanta Falcons | -1 | 3-3 (3-3) | +.5 | +25000 |
| 22. | Philadelphia Eagles | -1 | 2-5 (3-4) | -.5 | +20000 |
| 23. | Carolina Panthers | -1.5 | 3-4 (3-4) | -1.5 | +20000 |
| 24. | Washington | -2 | 2-5 (1-6) | — | +20000 |
| 25. | Chicago Bears | -2 | 3-4 (3-4) | -1 | +20000 |
| 26. | Seattle Seahawks | -2.5 | 2-5 (4-3) | — | +10000 |
| 27. | Miami Dolphins | -3 | 1-6 (2-5) | — | +20000 |
| 28. | New York Giants | -3.5 | 2-5 (3-4) | +1 | +50000 |
| 29. | Jacksonville Jaguars | -4.5 | 1-5 (2-4) | — | +100000 |
| 30. | Detroit Lions | -5 | 0-7 (4-3) | — | +100000 |
| 31. | New York Jets | -5.5 | 1-5 (1-5) | -1 | +100000 |
| 32. | Houston Texans | -8 | 1-6 (3-4) | -.5 | +100000 |
Week 8 Risers
Teams who improved from the last Power Ratings update on Oct 20.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6.5 to 7.5) — The Buccaneers rested two Hall of Famers (Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown) and they still made it look easy in a 38-3 victory over the Bears in Week 7 — they still had the G.O.A.T., who threw for his 600th career touchdown. Don’t look now, but the Buccaneers’ defense has limited their last four opponents to 14.8 points and 279.8 yards per game during their four-game winning streak.
Arizona Cardinals (6 to 6.5) — The Cardinals didn’t play particularly well against the Texans in Week 7, and they still scored 31 consecutive points to stay undefeated and to improve their ATS record to 6-1. Kyler Murray did take some monster hits in that contest, which is something to remember down the road if he starts to wear down. Zach Ertz isn’t exactly known for being the fleetest of the foot after the catch so you know he had a lot of room to run on his career-long 47-yard touchdown in his Arizona debut.
Green Bay Packers (5.5 to 6) — Green Bay is tied for the best ATS winning streak at six straight covers, which is tied with the Cowboys, who are 6-0 ATS this season. It’s not factored into Green Bay’s power rating this week, but WR Davante Adams is one of the few WRs who moves a line 1-2 points. The Packers went from four-point road underdogs against the Cardinals to six-point ’dogs with news that Adams and DC Joe Barry would likely miss this week with COVID-19.
Tennessee Titans (2 to 3) — The Titans are on an impressive run with three straight outright and ATS victories, including wins over AFC preseason favorites in the Bills and Chiefs. Derrick Henry and the Titans’ offense rightfully get all the headlines, but their defense just limited Kansas City’s offense to their worst showing in Andy Reid’s nine-year tenure.
Cleveland Browns (2 to 2.5) — Backup Case Keenum acquitted himself fairly well in his first major action since he last started in Washington during the 2019 season. He could be looking at more starts this season after FOX’s Jay Glazer reported that Baker Mayfield is also dealing with a fracture in his non-throwing shoulder in addition to his torn labrum. Opponents will be facing a heavy dose of Nick Chubb and D’Ernest Johnson in the weeks ahead.
Cincinnati Bengals (1 to 2) — The Bengals scored the most impressive victory in Week 7 with their stunning 41-17 beatdown in Baltimore. Cincinnati has won consecutive games by three scores or more over the Lions and Ravens, with an average cover margin of 25.0 points. Ja’Marr Chase is well on his way to winning Rookie of the Year honors — he sits at +110 to take home the award entering Week 8 — after smashing an excellent Ravens’ secondary for 8/201/1 receiving.
Indianapolis Colts (1 to 2) — The Colts have an early must-win game against the Titans this week if they have any hopes of winning the AFC South. They enter Week 8 trailing the Titans by two games, and Tennessee already has the tiebreaker in hand thanks to a 25-16 victory over the Colts in Nashville as 4.5-point home favorites. The Colts have turned a corner ever since that loss in Week 3 with four straight covers, three of which have come by cover margins of 12.5 points or more. A healthy offensive line with LG Quenton Nelson back has enabled Jonathan Taylor to rip off 110+ scrimmage yards in four straight games.
Las Vegas Raiders (.5 to 1.5) — The Raiders have won their first two games without Jon Gruden by double-digits, scoring 33+ points in both contests. After a brief cold spell in Weeks 4-5, Derek Carr has posted 320+ passing yards and two passing TDs in five times this season, and he’s thrown for 315+ yards in nine of his last 11 full games dating back to Week 13 last season.
New England Patriots (0 to .5) — The Patriots really emptied the playbook in their 54-13 beatdown of the Jets last week, which included 20 first downs in the first half alone. They averaged 7.4 yards per play and Mac Jones notched the first 300-yard game of his career. We’ll see if their performance kickstarts their offense the rest of the season or if it was more of a one-off performance against an inferior team.
Atlanta Falcons (-1.5 to -1) — The Falcons aren’t exactly lighting the world on fire, but they’re moving in the right direction with outright wins and ATS covers in three of their last four games. Atlanta has finally unleashed Kyle Pitts on the league with the rookie totaling 16/282/1 receiving on 18 targets over his last two games.
New York Giants (-4.5 to -3.5) — I’m giving the Giants a half-point boost for limiting the lowly Panthers’ offense to 2.8 yards per play last week. I’m giving them another half-point boost since they could be getting back some major reinforcements on offense as soon as this week. This is a Monday night contest so New York will have an extra day to potentially get RB Saquon Barkley (ankle), WR Kadarius Toney (ankle), WR Kenny Golladay (knee), and WR Sterling Shepard (hamstring) back into the lineup.
Week 8 Fallers
Teams who worsened from the last Power Ratings update on Oct. 20.
Baltimore Ravens (5.5 to 5) — The Bengals outscored the Ravens 28-7 in the final two quarters of their battle for the AFC North lead in Week 7. The contest was tight until Ja’Marr Chase broke open the game with an 82-yard catch-and-run TD, which broke the game wide open. The Ravens have a much-needed bye this week as they’ve been hit by injuries hard all season — LT Ronnie Stanley (ankle, IR) was the latest star lost for the season.
Kansas City Chiefs (4.5 to 3.5) — Kansas City continues to be money losers on a near-weekly basis with a 4-14 ATS mark over their last 18 games. The Chiefs are coming off their worst offensive showing in Andy Reid’s nine seasons. Kansas City scored just three points against a lowly Titans’ defense, which was its fewest points in a game since the final game of the Romeo Crennel era in 2012.
New Orleans Saints (2.5 to 2) — Good thing the Saints have an all-world defense and all-world running back because their passing attack has been mostly inept this season — they lost LG Andrus Peat (pec, IR) in Week 7 too. Alvin Kamara accounted for 58.9% of New Orleans’ total yards (179 of 304), 52.6% of Jameis Winston’s completions (10 of 19), and 57.8% of the passing yards (128 of 222) in their ugly victory over the Seahawks in Week 7.
San Francisco 49ers (2 to 1.5) — San Francisco quickly turned into one of the biggest disappointments among the league’s top teams heading into the season. The 49ers have failed to cover in four straight games, and Kyle Shanahan’s offense has scored 21 or fewer points in four of their last five games — they’re averaging 18.8 points per game in that span.
Denver Broncos (.5 to -.5) — It feels like months ago that Denver started 3-0 after they got run off the field on Thursday Night Football by Cleveland’s second-team offense. They’ve dropped four straight games outright and against the spread, and it’s just a matter of time before the Broncos move on from Vic Fangio and Teddy Bridgewater.
Philadelphia Eagles (-.5 to -1) — Jalen Hurts and the Eagles are moving in the wrong direction despite a pair of covers against the Panthers and Buccaneers in Weeks 5-6. Hurts opened the season completing 66.2% of his passes while averaging 291.8 passing yards per game and 8.1 YPA in his first four games. Over the last three contests, he’s completing just 53.6% of his passes while averaging 183.0 passing yards per game and 5.7 YPA.
Carolina Panthers (0 to -1.5) — The Panthers are a falling knife with four straight outright and ATS losses since their 3-0 start to the season. Carolina managed just three points against the Giants in Week 7 and they didn’t score for the final 53 minutes of action. The offense played so poorly that HC Matt Rhule pulled Sam Darnold for P.J. Walker in the early stage of the fourth quarter. Darnold is averaging 4.8 YPA and 165.0 passing yards per game with two TDs and five INTs over his last four games, which coincides with RB Christian McCaffrey (hamstring, IR) leaving the lineup — he won’t be back this week, either.
Chicago Bears (-1 to -2) — The Bears are 1-6 toward unders and they’ve gone under the total by an average of two scores (8.8 points) in their six games that went under the total this season. The Buccaneers scored 38 points against the Bears thanks to plenty of short fields with Justin Fields turning the ball over five times…and they still went under the 47-point total thanks to just three points from the Bears.
New York Jets (-4.5 to -5.5) — The Jets will likely be without rookie Zach Wilson for the next 2-4 weeks, and the Jets were desperate enough to trade for Joe Flacco this week after watching Mike White backup Wilson last week. They’re coming off an embarrassing 54-13 loss to the Patriots last week, and they’re now 1-5 outright and ATS this season. New York’s defense was also an outright disaster against the Patriots without LB C.J. Mosley in the lineup because of a hamstring injury.
Houston Texans (-7.5 to -8) — The Texans have been outscored 102-8 in their last three road games after giving up 31 consecutive points in their 31-5 loss to the Cardinals. Houston reached a new low as they closed as 20.5-point road underdogs so they can’t get Tyrod Taylor (hamstring, IR) back soon enough.
