My power ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season.
I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant. I hope you find these ratings useful and good luck with your wagers!
Example: My top-rated team, the Chiefs (7), would be 14-point favorites on a neutral field over my worst-rated team, the Texans (-7). Using a typical three-point adjustment for home-field advantage, the Chiefs would be 17-point favorites over the Texans at home and 11-point favorites over the Texans on the road.
| Rank | Team | Power Rating | 2021 Record (ATS) | Ratings Change | Super Bowl LVI Odds |
| 1. | Kansas City Chiefs | 7 | 1-0 (0-1) | — | +500 |
| 2. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6.5 | 1-0 (0-1) | — | +550 |
| 3. | Buffalo Bills | 5.5 | 0-1 (0-1) | — | +1100 |
| 4. | Los Angeles Rams | 5 | 1-0 (1-0) | +.5 | +1200 |
| 5. | Green Bay Packers | 4 | 0-1 (0-1) | -.5 | +1400 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 4 | 0-1 (1-0) | — | +1500 |
| 7. | Seattle Seahawks | 3.5 | 1-0 (1-0) | +.5 | +1600 |
| 8. | Baltimore Ravens | 3.5 | 0-1 (0-1) | -.5 | +1800 |
| 9. | San Francisco 49ers | 3.5 | 1-0 (0-1) | — | +1400 |
| 10. | New England Patriots | 2.5 | 0-1 (0-1) | — | +3500 |
| 11. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2 | 1-0 (1-0) | — | +3500 |
| 12. | Miami Dolphins | 2 | 1-0 (1-0) | +.5 | +2800 |
| 13. | New Orleans Saints | 1.5 | 1-0 (1-0) | +1 | +2200 |
| 14. | Los Angeles Chargers | 1.5 | 1-0 (1-0) | — | +2800 |
| 15. | Arizona Cardinals | 1.5 | 1-0 (1-0) | +1 | +3500 |
| 16. | Denver Broncos | 1.5 | 1-0 (1-0) | +.5 | +3000 |
| 17. | Tennessee Titans | 1 | 0-1 (0-1 | -1 | +3500 |
| 18. | Dallas Cowboys | 1 | 0-1 (1-0) | +.5 | +3500 |
| 19. | Minnesota Vikings | 1 | 0-1 (0-1) | -1 | +5000 |
| 20. | Washington | .5 | 0-1 (0-1) | -1 | +6500 |
| 21. | Indianapolis Colts | 0 | 0-1 (0-1) | -.5 | +5000 |
| 22. | Las Vegas Raiders | -.5 | 1-0 (1-0) | +.5 | +6500 |
| 23. | Philadelphia Eagles | -1 | 1-0 (1-0) | +1 | +5000 |
| 24. | Carolina Panthers | -1.5 | 1-0 (1-0) | — | +6500 |
| 25. | Chicago Bears | -1.5 | 0-1 (0-1) | -1 | +8000 |
| 26. | Cincinnati Bengals | -2 | 1-0 (1-0) | +1 | +10000 |
| 27. | Atlanta Falcons | -2 | 0-1 (0-1) | -1 | +10000 |
| 28. | New York Giants | -2 | 0-1 (0-1) | -.5 | +10000 |
| 29. | New York Jets | -3.5 | 0-1 (0-1) | — | +15000 |
| 30. | Jacksonville Jaguars | -3.5 | 0-1 (0-1) | -1 | +25000 |
| 31. | Detroit Lions | -4 | 0-1 (1-0) | — | +25000 |
| 32. | Houston Texans | -7 | 1-0 (1-0) | +1 | +10000 |
Week 2 Risers
Teams who improved from the last Power Ratings update on Sept. 7.
Los Angeles Rams (4.5 to 5) — HC Sean McVay didn’t wait long to show off his new toy with Matthew Stafford connecting with Van Jefferson for a 67-yard touchdown on the third play of his Rams’ career. The Rams outgained the Bears by a whopping three yards per play (7.7 to 4.7) and they scored on six of their first seven drives before going into victory formation at the end of the game.
Seattle Seahawks (3 to 3.5) — Russell Wilson threw for four touchdowns on just 23 attempts and he averaged 11.0 YPA in a dominant victory over the Colts. The Seahawks outgained the Colts 7.2 to 4.7 yards per play and Indy needed a touchdown with two minutes left to salvage the box score.
Miami Dolphins (1.5 to 2) — The Dolphins are back to covering spreads after owning a league-best 11-5 ATS record last season — Tua is now 4-0 ATS as an underdog. The markets continue to disrespect them with the Patriots closing as 3.5-point home favorites last week and with the Bills opening as 3.5-point road favorites this week.
Denver Broncos (1 to 1.5) — Jerry Jeudy’s high-ankle injury is a buzzkill for a team that’s trending in the right direction. The Broncos punted just twice against the Giants and they limited New York to just 3.0 yards per play.
New Orleans Saints (1 to 1.5) — The Saints certainly deserve credit for choking out the Packers in the season opener, but I’m putting that result more on the Green Bay side for not showing up. The Saints did improve their secondary last week by trading for Bradley Roby to play across from Marshon Lattimore. They would’ve risen higher but they escaped Week 1 with injuries to Lattimore, DE Marcus Davenport, and C Erik McCoy.
Dallas Cowboys (.5 to 1) — The Cowboys went on the road on the opening night of the season and nearly knocked off the reigning Super Bowl champions in an instant classic. Dak Prescott answered any and all questions about the health of his leg and his throwing shoulder by throwing 58 times for 403 yards and three touchdowns against the Buccaneers. I initially had the Cowboys power rated higher after their Week 1 performance until news of La’el Collins’ five-game suspension came out.
Arizona Cardinals (.5 to 1.5) — I’m giving the Cardinals a nice boost up my ratings after being a little too low on them to start the season. Chandler Jones finished with five sacks and two forced fumbles while the Cardinals outgained the Titans 6.2 to 3.9 yards in their lopsided victory.
Las Vegas Raiders (-1 to -.5) — Darren Waller picked up right where he left off last season with 10/105/1 receiving on 19 targets against the Ravens. He’s going to challenge Travis Kelce for his throne as the top TE this season. On a down note, the Raiders lost DT Gerald McCoy RG Denzelle Good to injuries in Week 1.
Philadelphia Eagles (-2 to -1) — The Eagles are back to dominating in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and especially along their offensive line with Lane Johnson and Brandon Brooks back along the right side. Philadelphia averaged 5.6 YPC and first-round pick DeVonta Smith impressed with 6/71/1 receiving in his professional debut.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3 to -2) — Joe Burrow (ACL) and Ja’Marr Chase (drops) answered major questions about themselves in the season opener. Burrow averaged 9.7 YPA in his first start since surgery while Chase booked a 100-yard performance in his first NFL game after being plagued by drops in August.
Week 2 Fallers
Teams who worsened from the last Power Ratings update on Sept. 7.
Green Bay Packers (4.5 to 4) — The natives are restless in Green Bay after their Packers no-showed in the season opener after a tumultuous off-season. I’m not going to overreact just yet — they no-showed in Tampa early last season — but I am worried about their revamped offensive line that’s missing David Bakhtiari (ACL, PUP) and that no longer has Corey Linsley (LAC).
Baltimore Ravens (4 to 3.5) — The Ravens have had by far the worst injury luck before the season even started. CB Marcus Peters and RB Gus Edwards tore their ACLs on consecutive plays in a Sept. 9 practice, which left the Ravens scrambling especially with their backfield. Then Tyre Phillips had to be carted off with a knee injury during their Week 1 loss to the Raiders.
Washington Football Team (1.5 to 1) —I’m downgrading Washington with Ryan Fitzpatrick out the next 6-8 weeks with a dislocated hip even though the markets don’t see much of a difference between Fitz and Taylor Heinicke.
Minnesota Vikings (2 to 1) — The Vikings averaged just 3.0 YPC in Week 1 and they couldn’t push around a run defense that allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game to RBs last season in the season opener, which isn’t a great sign for the future. Mike Zimmer’s team also played completely undisciplined with 12 penalties for 116 yards compared to three penalties for 15 yards for the Bengals.
Tennessee Titans (2 to 1) — The Titans had the second-worst season-opening performance — ahead of only the Packers — in their embarrassing loss to the Cardinals. LT Taylor Lewan had his soul owned by Chandler Jones, they’re still having kicker issues, and they ran play action just twice in their first game without Arthur Smith.
Indianapolis Colts (.5 to 0) — Carson Wentz went from an Eagles’ offense without many playmakers at receiver to a Colts’ offense without any playmakers at receiver with T.Y. Hilton out of the lineup. Russell Wilson averaged 11.0 YPA against a secondary without Xavier Rhodes and the Colts have a problem at left tackle while Eric Fisher recovers from his Achilles injury.
Chicago Bears (-.5 to -1.5) — The Bears got pushed around by the Rams in the season opener as they were outgained by three yards per play (7.7 to 4.7). Left tackle could be a mess for Chicago this week with Jason Peters (quad) and Larry Borom (ankle) each going down in the season opener.
New York Giants (-1.5 to -2) — The Giants made this box score look a lot more respectable than it actually was with their final garbage-time touchdown drive. Saquon Barkley returned to the lineup and his longest run went for five yards as his offensive line did nothing to ease concerns about their troublesome August.
Atlanta Falcons (-1 to -2) — The Falcons got blown off the field in the season opener as Arthur Smith’s offensive and defensive lines got overwhelmed by the Eagles. Philadelphia outgained the Falcons 6.5 to 4.1 yards per play while Matt Ryan averaged a miserable 4.7 YPA.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5 to -3.5) — Trevor Lawrence threw five interceptions in all of 2020 at Clemson, but he got a rude awakening with three interceptions in his first professional game against the Texans. Urban Meyer appears to be in way over his head based on his team’s performances in the preseason and in Week 1.
Houston Texans (-8 to -7) — The Texans aren’t going to get many power ratings upgrades but they deserved one after their 16-point victory over the Jaguars in the season opener. Houston’s defense finished with three interceptions in 16 games in 2020, and they matched their output in just one game in 2021 against Trevor Lawrence.
