Paul Kelly's Week 5 Props

Player Props Record: 24-13 (65%)

We have been winners every week so far including a strong 6-2 record on last week’s top plays. We got hosed on the two we lost…Robby Anderson by half a yard…and Jaylen Waddle by 1 catch. Waddle had 3 grabs mid-way through the second quarter then inexplicably didn’t catch another ball the rest of the way. If you played every prop I listed for Week 4 you would have gone 23-7 which shows that the FantasyPoints.com player projections are crushing it! I’m all about finding the largest discrepancies between those projections and the player props being offered by the books.

Here’s some background on the process I use to find the props featured in this article. Looking to get an edge over the sportsbooks, a couple of years ago I started comparing each of John Hansen’s player projections to the player props being offered by the books. I looked for the largest discrepancies between John’s numbers and the books’ numbers to identify betting opportunities. I’ve developed a good feel and a baseline for what constitutes a “significant” discrepancy between the projections and the props and I’ve been betting accordingly – shopping the various books for the most favorable odds of course.

Here’s a look at the player prop discrepancies I like most for Week 5 followed by a list of all of the significant discrepancies for the week.

Sam Darnold vs PHI

This one almost looks like a trap as Darnold has thrown at least 34 times in every game this season, including a couple of lopsided, lower-scoring wins. CMC is likely out again which could mean even more throws than usual.

Jalen Hurts @ CAR

I’m going to go ahead and take both QBs over the attempt totals in this Eagles/Panthers game. Hurts has cruised past 30 attempts in 3 of his 4 games and with the Eagles a 3-point road dogs, HC Nick Sirianni’s pass-heavy approach the last couple of weeks and the fact that the Eagles defense has gotten torched the last two weeks has me feeling warm and fuzzy about this one.

Ezekiel Elliott vs NYG

This is an even larger discrepancy than we saw last week with Zeke and we cashed in on that bet. The Cowboys are 7-point home favorites and have been employing a more run-heavy approach the last few weeks. There’s nothing scary about the matchup and we have Zeke projected for the second-highest rushing total of the week behind only Derrick Henry.

Trey Sermon @ ARI

Sermon looked good and earned some trust last week posting 89 rushing yards against Seattle. Elijah Mitchell is expected back this week but with Trey Lance making his first NFL start I’m expecting the 49ers to run it as often as possible and involve both backs. The Cardinals defense is allowing 5.2 YPC to backs so Sermon could hit this prop with just 5 or 6 carries.

Trey Lance @ ARI

Lance should be tucking and running it plenty in his first career start. Lance carried 7 times for 41 yards last week in relief of Jimmy Garropolo and this week he’ll have all four quarters to get it done. The Cardinals are giving up the seventh-most rushing yards per game to QBs despite not facing any "running" QBs so Lance shouldn’t have trouble finding room to run.

Dalvin Cook vs. DET

Dalvin missed time in last week’s game against Cleveland and he’s missed practice time this week with an ankle issue. He’ll be out there on Sunday but I’d be surprised if he handled a full workload. He played just 49% of the snaps last week and split carries with Alexander Mattison. Although the Lion run defense has been bad, the Vikes are 10-point home favorites and I’d be surprised if they feel the need to give Cook 17+ carries at less than 100% in this one to secure a win.

Allen Robinson @ LV

Robinson had his best yardage game of the season last week (3/63) although he was outpaced by Darnell Mooney (5/125). Mooney and Robinson have the two largest receiving yard discrepancies on the board this week, so they’re both very actionable from that standpoint, but I’m still cautious because of Justin Fields’ struggles so I’m hesitant to recommend both Robinson and Mooney. Per Joe Dolan, Robinson, plays 41% of his routes inside, where the Raiders have given up 55.8% of their fantasy production to WRs. Meanwhile Casey Hayward, PFF’s top-graded coverage corner, plays exclusively outside, which could make things tougher for Mooney.

Saquon Barkley @ DAL

Barkley has looked better and better by the week and he’s averaged 58.5 receiving yards over the last two weeks. The Giants are 7-point road dogs this week and the Cowboys give up a league-high 8.3 catches per game to RBs. This one looks great to me.

Justin Jefferson vs. DET

83.5 yards is a pretty big number but we have Jefferson projected to have the most receiving yards in the league this week. Stud player with a large discrepancy against a lousy defense? Yes please. The Vikes are big home favorites so the hope is they move the ball via the forward pass early.

Henry Ruggs vs. CHI

We identified Ruggs as a discrepancy play last week and he hit. In fact, he’s topped this 46.5 receiving yards prop in every game this year. Nothing scary about the matchup as the Bears are allowing the 6th-most fantasy points to WRs so far this year. They’re typically more vulnerable to slot receivers but this number is low enough and the discrepancy large enough that I’m inclined to play it.

Marquise Brown vs. IND

After burning us in Week 3 with a case of the dropsies, Hollywood looked great last week and made us a winner. We’re back to the well again here with Brown as this number just looks too low. Per Wes Huber, the Colts’ typical coverage shells are shells he has absolutely crushed in his career so far - so it’s Hooray For Hollywood again this week for me!

Here’s the full list of statistically significant player prop discrepancies for Week 5. Happy Wagering!