Paul Kelly's Week 4 Props

Player Props Record: 18-11 (62%)

We have been winners three weeks in a row and once again there’s no shortage of prop/projection discrepancies to choose from this week.

Here’s some background on the process I use to find the props featured in this article. Looking to get an edge over the sportsbooks, a couple of years ago I started comparing each of John Hansen’s player projections to the player props being offered by the books. I looked for the largest discrepancies between John’s numbers and the books’ numbers to identify betting opportunities. I’ve developed a good feel and a baseline for what constitutes a “significant” discrepancy between the projections and the props and I’ve been betting accordingly – shopping the various books for the most favorable odds of course.

Here’s a look at the player prop discrepancies I like most for Week 4 followed by a list of all of the significant discrepancies for the week.

Ezekiel Elliott vs CAR

Zeke is the owner of the largest rushing yards discrepancy on the board this week. The Panthers rank #1 against the run but they’ve played the Jets, Saints and Texans which certainly feeds that ranking. The Cowboys have a renewed commitment to the run and betting on 61 yards from Elliott doesn’t seem too much to ask. He’s easily topped that number in each of his last two games.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire @ PHI

CEH is coming off a 100-yard effort last week and he faces an Eagles defense that allowed Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard to rush for 28/155/2 last week. The Chiefs are 1-2 and hungry so I can see them getting out to a big lead early which should mean Edwards-Helaire will see enough carries in the second half to put this rushing yards prop to bed.

Chuba Hubbard @ DAL

Hubbard should lead the Panthers in carries this week but Royce Freeman will get some as well. The books have Dallas as a 4.5-point home favorite which could mean the Panthers may throw a bit more than usual. Couple that with the fact that Dallas defense has only allowed 13, 14 and 3 RB carries over their first three games and there’s a strong case to be made that Hubbard will see 13 or fewer carries this week.

Sammy Watkins @ DEN

Sammy has 4 catches in each of his first three games and he’s topped this yardage total in every one of them. I’m not expecting huge things from him this week, but all we need is 37 yards. Denver’s defensive rankings look great in most categories but their schedule thus far has been a joke (NYG, JAX, NYJ). There is a chance Rashod Bateman sees his first action as a pro this week but I still feel good about Sammy going over this low yardage number.

Robby Anderson @ DAL

Robby has been terrible for fantasy and a complete afterthought in the Panthers offense through three weeks. That being said, we could see an overcorrection this week. DJ Moore may get shadowed by Trevon Diggs, Christian McCaffrey is OUT and TE Dan Arnold has been traded. Seems like the perfect time to get Robby into the flow in what should be a high scoring game.

Jaylen Waddle vs. IND

Waddle’s catch totals are 4, 6 and 12 through the first three games so can someone explain to me why the books have him priced at just 3.5 catches? This seems like a slam dunk and I’ll gladly risk the -149 to get in at that number. Did you see the Dolphins offense last week? He could hit 4 catches in the first half of this one. Also note that a discrepancy of 2.5 catches is very rare.

Jakobi Meyers vs. TB

The Pats are 7-point home dogs against Tampa’s stingy run defense so we should see plenty of Mac Jones pass attempts (which is also a viable prop to play this week). Meyers is coming off a season-high 13-target/9-catch game last week and the loss of James White frees up even more targets as there’s no obvious replacement for him. The Guru has been talking up Meyers on our radio show this week and I’m sold.

Javonte Williams vs. BAL

Williams continues to split time and touches with veteran Melvin Gordon but Gordon is dealing with both a rib and a leg issue heading into this game with the Ravens. Even if Gordon maintains his usual role, this is a pretty good matchup for the Broncos RBs. The Ravens are allowing the 6th-most FPG to opposing backs and both D’Andre Swift (107 total yards) and Jamaal Williams (65 total yards) topped this 54.5 yard prop against them last week.

Here’s the full list of statistically significant player prop discrepancies for Week 4. Happy wagering!