Paul Kelly's Week 14 Props

Player Props Record: 63-37 (63%) Last Week: 5-2 (71%)

We’ve now notched better than 70% winners in three straight weeks and frankly we should have hit 100% last week. The only two props we lost were because of extreme weather. We took both Darnell Mooney and Kendrick Bourne to go over their receiving yards props but Mooney ended up playing in a monsoon and Bourne ended up playing in hurricane-like conditions. I did put the disclaimer in there last week that we might back off those props due to weather depending on how bad it looked shortly before game time so hopefully you waited on betting those. Even if you didn’t, we went 5-2 for the week and we’re white-hot winning 15 of our last 19 recommended plays (79%).

Here’s some background on the process I use to find the props featured in this article. Looking to get an edge over the sportsbooks, a couple of years ago I started comparing each of John Hansen’s player projections to the player props being offered by the books. I looked for the largest discrepancies between John’s numbers and the books’ numbers to identify betting opportunities. I’ve developed a good feel and a baseline for what constitutes a “significant” discrepancy between the projections and the props and I’ve been betting accordingly – shopping the various books for the most favorable odds of course.

Here’s a look at the player prop discrepancies I like most for Week 14 followed by a list of all of the significant discrepancies for the week.

Antonio Gibson vs. DAL

Gibson has had success against Dallas rushing for more than 100 yards in both games against them last year. The Football Team is committed to him as he's seen 19+ carries in four straight. If he sees that kind of workload again this week he should cruise past this 66-yard prop as the Cowboys are allowing 4.3 YPC the last four weeks. Washington is a 4.5-point underdog this week but they should be able to keep it close enough for Gibson to get the work he’ll need to win this bet.

Devonta Freeman @ CLE

We won this prop with Freeman last week and I’m going right back to it again this week. Freeman is coming off his best game of the season in Week 13 and now has double-digit carries in five straight including a 16-carry game against the Browns just two weeks ago. The Ravens are 3-point road dogs in this one but I don't see the Browns pulling away so 12+ carries should be very attainable.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. CHI

Valdes-Scantling has gone over this number in three straight games. He’s logged a team-high 19 targets over Green Bay’s last two games, and Randall Cobb (groin) has been ruled out this week. MVS missed the first GB/CHI game this year but he put up 87 yards against them last time he faced them.

Gabriel Davis @ TB

Davis may be just the WR4 for the Bills but he's had at least 2 receptions in four straight games and that’s all we need to win this bet. The Bills figure to throw a lot in this game as 3.5-point road dogs and the Bucs face the most pass attempts in the league so Davis should get enough chances to come down with at least 2 grabs.

Cole Kmet @ GB

Kmet has 3+ catches in six of his last seven games and caught 4 balls against the Packers earlier this year. The Packers haven't allowed much to TEs over the last four weeks but we don't need much to win this wager. It should be a pass-heavy game script for the Bears as 12.5-point road dogs.

Here’s the full list of statistically significant player prop discrepancies for Week 14. Happy Wagering!