Paul Kelly's Week 10 Props

Player Props Record: 47-29 (62%) Last Week: 5-3 (63%)

We’re chugging right along at a very profitable 62% clip on the season yet we have still had our share of screwjobs as tends to happen with some of these props. Last week was relatively clean although the Zeke knee issue that popped up early in the game didn’t help us with his rushing yards prop. We have a fair amount of large prop/projection discrepancies this week but I’m only formally going in on five of them as there are a bunch there that I just don’t trust.

Here’s some background on the process I use to find the props featured in this article. Looking to get an edge over the sportsbooks, a couple of years ago I started comparing each of John Hansen’s player projections to the player props being offered by the books. I looked for the largest discrepancies between John’s numbers and the books’ numbers to identify betting opportunities. I’ve developed a good feel and a baseline for what constitutes a “significant” discrepancy between the projections and the props and I’ve been betting accordingly – shopping the various books for the most favorable odds of course.

Here’s a look at the player prop discrepancies I like most for Week 10 followed by a list of all of the significant discrepancies for the week.

Patrick Mahomes @ LV

Mahomes went way over this passing yards number in both games against the Raiders last year but he isn’t the same player right now. He’s gone under this number in six of his last seven games and the Raiders are giving up the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (220.8) to QBs. It would be an upset if he goes over.

Kirk Cousins @ LAC

Cousins has failed to reach even 200 yards in each of his last two games and this week he faces a Chargers defense allowing the 2nd-fewest FP to QBs over the last four weeks. The Chargers defense allows the most rushing yards to RBs and the Vikings have a pair of good ones so we could easily see a very run-heavy offensive approach and a low-volume game for Kirkie.

Jonathan Taylor vs. JAC

This is a large number but I’m going to keep rolling with the best runner in football right now. Our projection for Taylor this week in what could be a very positive game script is 115 yards so we’ve got some wiggle room here. The Colts are 10.5-point home favorites this week which bodes well as in the 16 games where the Colts have been favored over the last two seasons, Taylor has averaged 94.8 rushing yards per game. The Jags defense hasn’t allowed a back to rush for more than 50 yards in three straight games but they also haven’t faced anyone (MIA, SEA, BUF).

Jamison Crowder vs. BUF

Crowder has gone over this catch total in all five games he’s played this year. The Bills defense is tough on opposing WRs, especially outside WRs (like the returning Corey Davis) which makes Crowder’s matchup in the slot a bit more appealing for QB Mike White. The Bills are favored by double-digits here so White should be busy throwing all afternoon and Crowder shouldn’t have a problem topping this number.

Marquez Callaway @ TEN

Callaway has now topped 2.5 catches in four straight games and I’m not seeing much to suggest he can’t make it five straight this week. The Titans defense is giving up by far the most receptions per game (17.0) to WRs so there’s nothing scary about the matchup. The Saints are 3-point road dogs and will be playing without ball hog Alvin Kamara this week so I’ve gotta believe Callaway can easily catch three or more this week.

Here’s the full list of statistically significant player prop discrepancies for Week 10. Happy Wagering!