If you’re anything like me, you’ve been itching for some betting opportunities on NFL events since Super Bowl LV concluded with the Buccaneers beating the Chiefs more than two months ago. The NFL Draft is quickly approaching on April 29 through May 1, which is our one chance to bet an actual NFL event before preseason action gets going in August.
Unfortunately, most states, including my home state of Pennsylvania, don’t allow betting on the draft since it’s not an actual sporting competition. I may be making a trip to states like New Jersey or West Virginia, which allow you to place wagers NFL Draft props. Hopefully, you have access to an off-shore account or you live in or near one of the states that are allowed to offer betting lines on this year’s draft.
Since I don’t have access to draft lines in Pennsylvania, I’ll be using lines that are being offered in New Jersey and at off-shore sportsbooks for the purposes of this article. If you can, make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds if possible. You’re going to see much more volatility between sportsbooks with an event like the draft than you’ll see on game lines during the season.
Note: We’re thrilled to offer Greg Cosell’s rookie profiles once again as part of our 2021 NFL Draft Guide. I’ve included a small piece of his analysis for each player listed below. Be sure to subscribe to our guide to get his complete analysis for over 165+ players.
Prop updates since original posting on April 21
Elijah Moore to be drafted in the first round (-135, Bovada) — Added April 26.
Over 1.5 running backs drafted in the first round (+175, BetMGM) — Added April 29.
Wide Receivers
Ja’Marr Chase, LSU
Latest Mock Drafts
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 6): sixth overall (Dolphins), WR1
Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 16): fifth overall (Bengals), WR1
Todd McShay, ESPN (April 1): fifth overall (Bengals), WR1
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis
Chase is the best wide receiver prospect in the 2021 draft class. He possesses all the high-level traits to transition to the NFL: size, play strength, hands, body control, balance, burst and acceleration, run-after-catch, physical and mental toughness and competitiveness. What consistently stood out and transitions well to the NFL for a young receiver was the variety of ways in which Chase defeated press coverage, and that is often a trait young receivers struggle with in their transition to the next level.
Draft Props to Consider
Ja’Marr Chase under 6.5 draft position (-177, DraftKings) — Chase is the heavy favorite to be the first wide receiver drafted this year even after he opted out for the 2020 season — Chase is as high as -800 at BetMGM to be the first wide receiver selected. The last time anyone saw him in game action was back in 2019 when he posted a ridiculous 84/1780/20 receiving with Joe Burrow on LSU’s 2019 national title team. There’s been a lot of smoke out of Cincinnati that the Bengals are interested in reuniting Burrow and Chase, and I’m sure the front office would get no complaints from their franchise quarterback if that’s the pick they make.
Chase is also very much in play at No. 6 since the Dolphins will continue to upgrade their offensive weapons in this year’s draft. Second-year QB Tua Tagovailoa was throwing to the likes of Mack Hollins and Isaiah Ford in the final weeks of last season, which will be completely unacceptable in 2021. The Dolphins just signed D.J. Fluker on April 20, which doesn’t preclude them from drafting an offensive lineman, but I do think it makes them more likely to draft Chase if he’s available at No. 6. The price is a little too steep to take his draft position under 6.5 at -177 at DraftKings, and I’d want a plus price if I took his draft position under 5.5, which is currently being offered at -106 at FanDuel.
DeVonta Smith, Alabama
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 6): 11th overall (Giants), WR2
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 16): 16th overall (Cardinals), WR3
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 1): sixth overall (Dolphins), WR2
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis
Smith is a long, thin, silky-smooth, linear strider who showed a vertical dimension with his ability to eat up ground and get on top of corners. My sense is Smith transitions most effectively to the NFL as a movement Z and slot receiver at his best with free access off the line to open his stride and maximize his vertical traits and run-after-catch. Alabama aligned Smith both outside and inside in multiple locations, including being used as a motion receiver, and he was able to work freely into his routes and threaten defenders with his stride.
Draft Props to Consider
New York Giants to select a wide receiver with their first pick (+240, BetMGM) — I believe the Giants are hell-bent on making 2019 first-round pick Daniel Jones a success after a bumpy first two seasons in the league. They signed the top WR to hit the open market this off-season in X receiver Kenny Golladay, and I think the Giants will look to round out their new-look receiving corps by landing either Smith or Jaylen Waddle to split the Z and slot WR roles with Sterling Shepard this season. The Giants could also be in the mix to draft an offensive lineman in the first round for the second straight year, but New York should hold off on the line until later in the draft since they have Nate Solder returning to the team after opting out last season. The Giants are also optimistic about last year’s third-round pick Matt Peart, whom New York essentially redshirted last season as a rookie.
The Giants could also throw a wrench in their WR plans if they decide to trade down in the first round. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported on April 20 that GM Dave Gettleman is open to trading down from No. 11, which could take these Alabama WRs out of the picture. Still, Gettleman has never traded down in the first round in eight drafts as a GM between the Giants and Panthers. The Giants also haven’t traded down in 15 years, per Bill Barnwell, so I’m skeptical they’ll actually trade back in the first round. I’m expecting the Giants to stay where they are at No. 11 overall to select either Smith or Waddle.
Jaylen Waddle, Alabama
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 6): 16th overall (Cardinals), WR3
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 16): 13th overall (Chargers), WR2
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 1): seventh overall (Lions), WR3
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis
Waddle has both an explosive vertical dimension and outstanding run-after-catch on short and intermediate receptions. As a motion/movement receiver with free access off the line, Waddle can be a dangerous weapon, and then you factor in jet sweeps and orbit reverses to get him the ball on the move to take advantage of his open space speed and explosiveness. What consistently stood out was how controlled and movement-efficient Waddle was despite playing at such a high velocity and speed.
Draft Props to Consider
Jaylen Waddle drafted before Devonta Smith (-112, DraftKings) and Jaylen Waddle first WR selected (+1000, FanDuel) — Waddle versus Devonta Smith is the only head-to-head draft position that I’ve seen offered at the six sportsbooks I used for lines with a week to go before the draft. I don’t have a strong feeling about who will be selected first, but I’m leaning toward Waddle going before last year’s Heisman-winning receiver. Waddle’s stock has been steadily rising during the lead up to the draft because of comparisons to Tyreek Hill while Smith has slid ever so slightly because of concerns about his slight frame at 6’0”, 170 pounds. We’ve seen franchises reach for speed at wide receiver time and again early in the draft, including last year when the Raiders surprisingly took Waddle and Smith’s former Alabama teammate Henry Ruggs as the first WR in last year’s draft — Ruggs had the third-shortest odds at +450 to be the first WR selected. I think Ja’Marr Chase will be the first WR selected in this year’s draft, but Waddle at +1000 at FanDuel to be the first WR selected is at least intriguing if you’re looking for a longshot bet. Waddle is typically listed in the +600 to +700 range at every other book.
Elijah Moore, Ole Miss (Added April 26)
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 6): 32nd overall (Buccaneers), WR4
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 16): 25th overall (Jaguars), WR4
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 1): 28th overall (Saint), WR6
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis
Moore fits the profile of a quality NFL slot receiver with his size and desirable combination of traits: route running and separation quickness, vertical burst and speed, excellent hands, toughness and competitiveness at the catch point and through contact, explosiveness, and toughness run-after-catch. Moore transitions to the next level as a higher-level slot receiver who can also line up in multiple locations in the formation (including the backfield) and be used on jet sweeps and in the screen game.
Draft Props to Consider
Elijah Moore to be drafted in the first round (-135, Bovada) — Both Todd McShay and Bob McGinn reported in recent days that Moore has emerged as the WR4 for most teams behind this year’s clear-cut top three at wide receiver. McShay wrote that he hasn’t spoken to a single decision-maker who doesn’t have Moore as the WR4 while Moore also finished as the WR4 in McGinn’s polling of 16 NFL evaluators. The back half of the first round is littered with WR-needy teams and it appears Moore has a great chance of going on Day One if he’s emerged as the class’ No. 4 WR. Bovada currently has over 4.5 WRs drafted in the first round sitting at -350, which implies there’s a 78% chance that five or more WRs are selected in the first 32 picks on Thursday. Even if the under hits for the number of WRs selected in the first round, there’s a good chance that Moore isstill the fourth WR selected based on the information that’s emerged in recent days.
Running Backs
Najee Harris, Alabama
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 6): N/A
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 16): 24th overall (Steelers), RB1
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 1): 24th overall (Steelers), RB2
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis
Harris showed meaningful improvement from 2019 to 2020 with lateral quickness and looser hips and those are needed if Harris is to become a higher-level feature back in the NFL…A big question is whether Harris will be viewed as a three-down back in the NFL. He has excellent hands and ran a variety of routes in Alabama's offense, but his body type does not fit the conventional mold of the third-down receiving back.
Draft Props to Consider
Over .5 running backs drafted in the first round (-225, FanDuel) — As a Steelers fan, I’m hoping Harris doesn’t go to Pittsburgh at No. 24 and it has nothing to do with Harris’ ability to be a bell-cow back at the next level. The Steelers have much more pressing needs along their offensive line at tackle and center, and they also need to rebuild their cornerback depth chart after they lost Mike Hilton and Steven Nelson this off-season. However, longtime Steelers beat reporter Gerry Dulac reported on April 16 that Pittsburgh expects to add a feature back in the first round and no later than the second round to improve its dismal rushing attack from last season. I believe the best way to improve their rushing attack is by dipping into this year’s talented offensive line class in the first round before addressing the running back position on Day Two.
Still, there’s no denying Pittsburgh’s attraction to Harris because of his on-the-field playing style and his off-the-field presence. Harris is big (6’2”, 230 pounds) but elusive as a runner, and he comes into the league as an accomplished receiver and route runner out of Steve Sarkisian’s Alabama offense. His selfless personality would also be a welcome antidote to a Steelers’ locker room which has been plagued by out-sized brands at the skill positions in recent years between Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Chase Claypool. I think there are enough RB-needy and enough top-end prospects between Harris, Travis Etienne, and riser Javonte Williams for a running back to be drafted in the first round.
Travis Etienne, Clemson
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 6): N/A
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 16): 35th overall (Falcons), RB2
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 1): 23rd overall (Jets), RB1
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis
Etienne is a home-run hitter who can take it to the house on any play with his highly desirable combination of short-area burst and long speed. That's the strength of his game, and that kind of explosiveness is always in demand in the NFL. In 2020, Etienne was much improved in his ability to gain the hard yards inside with strong contact balance and finishing traits, and that improvement made me think there were similarities between Etienne and Dalvin Cook. The question is whether Etienne can develop into a volume, foundation back in the NFL or whether he fits more into the Alvin Kamara category.
Draft Props to Consider
Travis Etienne first running back drafted (+165, BetMGM) — Etienne’s stock has been on the decline ever since he decided to come back to Clemson for one last season in 2020. Meanwhile, Najee Harris has gone from being a second-round pick last summer to a potential first-round pick after a Heisman-worthy senior campaign. Over at Grinding the Mocks, Harris started to be mocked ahead of Etienne for the first time right after Harris posted 158/3 scrimmage in Alabama’s blowout victory over Ohio State in the national championship game. However, it’s not like Harris is suddenly a slam dunk to be drafted ahead of Etienne, and I believe Etienne has better than a 38% chance of being the first running back selected as his +165 odds imply.
The Jets have been the team most linked to Etienne because of his ability as an off-tackle runner, which would make him a great fit in Mike LaFleur’s outside-zone rushing attack. New York is also looking to load up on offensive talent to give Zach Wilson a chance for early success and they currently have a massive hole at running back with just Tevin Coleman and La’mical Perine at the top of the team’s RB depth chart. It doesn’t hurt that the Jets have two chances to potentially make Etienne the first running back off of the board at No. 23 and No. 34, with one of those picks coming before an oft-mocked spot for Harris at No. 24 with the Steelers. The clued-in Peter Schrager also had Etienne going No. 19 to Washington in his latest mock draft on April 20. I disagree with his landing spot since Washington already has a potential stud in Antonio Gibson, but it’s at least a potential signal that Etienne is still highly regarded in NFL circles.
Javonte Williams, North Carolina (Added April 29)
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis
Etienne is a home-run hitter who can take it to the house on any play with his highly desirable combination of short-area burst and long speed. That's the strength of his game, and that kind of explosiveness is always in demand in the NFL. In 2020, Etienne was much improved in his ability to gain the hard yards inside with strong contact balance and finishing traits, and that improvement made me think there were similarities between Etienne and Dalvin Cook. The question is whether Etienne can develop into a volume, foundation back in the NFL or whether he fits more into the Alvin Kamara category.
Draft Props to Consider
Over 1.5 running backs drafted in the first round (+175, BetMGM) — I’m adding this wager after talking to John Hansen and Adam Caplan on Sirius/XM on Thursday morning. This year’s running back class falls off a cliff after Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, and Javonte Williams and RB-needy teams could be in a rush to draft one of these three RBs a little earlier than expected. Over at DraftKings, Harris has 75% implied odds (-305) of being drafted in the first round followed by Etienne at 56% (-150) and Williams at 40% (+125). The four mainstream mock drafters that I rely on the most (Daniel Jeremiah, Peter Schrager, Dane Brugler, and Todd McShay) also had two running backs being drafted in the first round in their last mock drafts, which were released 24 hours before the draft. I’m taking the value at a bigger plus price since this prop should be more in the +110 to +125 range.
Brolley’s Best Bets
New York Giants to select a wide receiver with their first pick (+240, Bovada). Risk one unit to win 2.4 units.
Travis Etienne first running back drafted (+165, BetMGM). Risk one unit to win 1.65 units.
Elijah Moore to be drafted in the first round (-135, Bovada). Risk one unit to win .74 units.
Over 1.5 running backs drafted in the first round (+175, BetMGM). Risk one unit to win 1.75 units.
