If you’re anything like me, you’ve been itching for some betting opportunities on NFL events since Super Bowl LV concluded with the Buccaneers beating the Chiefs more than two months ago. The NFL Draft is quickly approaching on April 29 through May 1, which is our one chance to bet an actual NFL event before preseason action gets going in August.
Unfortunately, most states, including my home state of Pennsylvania, don’t allow betting on the draft since it’s not an actual sporting competition. I may be making a trip to states like New Jersey or West Virginia, which allow you to place wagers NFL Draft props. Hopefully, you have access to an off-shore account or you live in or near one of the states that are allowed to offer betting lines on this year’s draft.
Since I don’t have access to draft lines in Pennsylvania, I’ll be using lines that are being offered in New Jersey and at off-shore sportsbooks for the purposes of this article. If you can, make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds if possible. You’re going to see much more volatility between sportsbooks with an event like the draft than you’ll see on game lines during the season.
Note: We’re thrilled to offer Greg Cosell’s rookie profiles once again as part of our 2021 NFL Draft Guide. I’ve included a small piece of his analysis for each player listed below. Be sure to subscribe to our guide to get his complete analysis for over 165+ players.
Prop updates since original posting on April 20
Teven Jenkins under 26.5 draft position (-112, DraftKings) — Added April 22.
Kyle Pitts, Florida
Latest Mock Drafts
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 6): fifth overall (Bengals), TE1
Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 16): sixth overall (Dolphins), TE1
Todd McShay, ESPN (April 1): fourth overall (Falcons), TE1
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis
Pitts is a factor at all three levels of the defense with the speed to get over the top of the coverage and the accelerating burst to run away from defenders. Pitts is a strong TE prospect who fits today's NFL game with his ability to line up all over the formation and win in a variety of ways: speed, hands, wide catching radius, boundary X, vertical seams, red zone…He is the best TE prospect in the 2021 draft class and one of the best overall prospects given all the dimensions and matchup advantages he gives an offense.
Draft Props to Consider
Kyle Pitts under 5.5 draft position (-121, DraftKings) and first non-QB drafted (+125, DraftKings) — Pitts is the top player in this year’s draft outside of Trevor Lawrence, per Daniel Jeremiah and plenty of others who scout the draft. Pitts could be a generational talent at the position, and he has the ability to take over games as a receiver with his unique length and speed regardless of position. He’ll be a matchup nightmare for years to come and he should have teams lining up to draft him. I don’t see the Falcons using the fourth overall pick to draft a quarterback with Matt Ryan under contract for the next three seasons at 36 years old this fall. Atlanta could easily trade down with a quarterback-needy team, but Pitts should be the pick for the Falcons if they stay at No. 4.
The Bengals, who pick No. 5, also have a major need at tight end if the Falcons would happen to trade down with a team looking to draft a quarterback fourth overall. Cincinnati has been rumored as potential suitors for Joe Burrow’s old teammate Ja’Marr Chase but the Bengals have way too many holes to use a luxury pick on Chase with young standouts Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd already in the fold. Cincinnati does have a desperate need for offensive line help with Penei Sewell and Rashawn Slater available, but the Bengals will still be able to get a high-quality tackle early in the second round since this is a deep offensive line draft.
Offensive Linemen
Penei Sewell, Oregon
Latest Mock Drafts
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 6): ninth overall (Broncos), OL2
Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 15): seventh overall (Lions), OL1
Todd McShay, ESPN (April 1): 13th overall (Chargers), OL1
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis
Sewell is a high-level athlete for the LT position and will likely transition to the NFL fairly seamlessly as a rookie starter. He has a desirable combination of elite athletic movement and natural power/velocity to his movement that you do not find in many OT prospects. Sewell consistently exploded out of his stance as a run blocker, executing first-level blocks with force and velocity, and there was no better second-level run blocker in this class, with Sewell showing powerful movement, striking with violence, and exhibiting strong finishing traits.
Draft Props to Consider
Penei Sewell over 6.5 draft position (+110, BetMGM) — Sewell has seemingly been locked in as the top offensive lineman in this year’s draft since he opted out for the 2020 season. He’s as high as -1000 at PointsBet to be the first offensive lineman to be selected, which implies he has a 91% chance of being the first O-lineman selected in 2021. However, Sewell’s draft position has been slipping a bit in recent mock drafts with the quarterbacks, Kyle Pitts, and Ja’Marr Chase rising up draft boards. Sewell looked like a virtual lock to go to the Bengals at No. 5 just a couple of months ago, but Pitts and Chase are very much in the mix for Cincinnati now. The Bengals may feel more comfortable with the depth of this year’s offensive line class to draft one of the stud receivers first before drafting an O-lineman at No. 38 to start the second round. Rashawn Slater has also been gaining some momentum as a longshot (+300) to be the first offensive lineman drafted if the Bengals would pass on Sewell. I’m leaning toward taking the plus price on Sewell over 6.5 for his draft position, but I don’t feel comfortable enough betting it.
Rashawn Slater, Northwestern
Latest Mock Drafts
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 6): eighth overall (Panthers), OL1
Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 15): eighth overall (Panthers), OL2
Todd McShay, ESPN (April 1): 14th overall (Vikings), OL2
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis
Slater was consistently effective in pass protection with the independent arm technique maintaining excellent balance and body control through the rep, and he was outstanding climbing to the second level in the zone run game with an intuitive feel for leverage and angles. Slater is very streamlined and compact in his movement, understanding how to use his body and almost always playing with excellent balance, but he is not a high-level athlete for the OT position. There was a lot to like about Slater's game with his efficient movement and his consistently effective execution, and I believe he will be a Day One starter at OT and a quality player as a rookie.
Draft Props to Consider
Rashawn Slater under 9.5 draft position (-110, BetMGM) and first offensive lineman drafted (+300, Betonline) — Slater’s stock has been on a steady climb since the end of the college football season, and his average mock draft position is inside the top 10 with the NFL Draft nearing, according to Grinding the Mock. The Dolphins at No. 6 and the Panthers at No. 8 have been two popular landing spots for Slater inside the top 10. Meanwhile, Sewell’s stock has been slipping a bit with quarterbacks and receivers rising up draft boards. Daniel Jeremiah notably had Slater being drafted ahead of Sewell in his most recent mock draft. His NFL Network colleague Peter Schrager also wrote in his most recent mock draft that a few teams have told him that Slater is ahead of Sewell on their boards. Schrager had Slater going to Miami at No. 6 and Sewell going to Carolina at No. 8. Slater is currently +300 to be the first offensive lineman drafted, which implies he has a 25% chance of being drafted first. I initially thought about taking Slater at +300 but Miami’s signing of D.J. Fluker on April 20 and some recent talk of trading down could take them out of the picture for Slater. I also considered taking the Carolina Panthers to draft an offensive lineman first at +120 at DraftKings.
Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC
Latest Mock Drafts
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 6): 19th overall (Washington), OL3
Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 15): 11th overall (Giants), OL3
Todd McShay, ESPN (April 1): 16th overall (Dolphins), OL3
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis
Vera-Tucker is a naturally powerful man with quick, light feet who consistently showed the lateral movement, balance, and hand strength to set vertically and control the edge versus speed rushers. He was compact and precise in his movement, and he displayed plus athleticism and clean balanced footwork, in addition to powerful hands with full extension. The more tape watched of Vera-Tucker the more I thought of Tristan Wirfs coming out of Iowa in 2019, who had an outstanding rookie year at RT for the Super Bowl champion Bucs in 2020.
Draft Props to Consider
Alijah Vera-Tucker under 17.5 draft position (+100, BetMGM) — Vera-Tucker has been dubbed as one of the safest picks in the draft, including by Dane Brugler, and his stock has risen over the last two months to the point where he consistently finds himself in the teens in most mock drafts. There are plenty of teams hungry for offensive line help after the top 10 picks, including the Giants (No. 11), Chargers (No. 13), Vikings (No. 14), Cardinals (No. 16), and Raiders (No. 17). AVT projects to be an offensive tackle at the next level, but he excelled at both left guard (2019) and at left tackle (2020) at USC so he has some positional versatility depending on where he lands. Vera-Tucker’s draft position is 16.5 at both DraftKings (-112) and at Bovada (-120), but he’s being offered at +100 at 17.5 at BetMGM. That extra pick could be pivotal for the under since the Raiders tore down their offensive line this off-season and they pick No. 17.
Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech
Latest Mock Drafts
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 6): 21st overall (Colts), OL4
Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 15): 17th overall (Raiders), OL4
Todd McShay, ESPN (April 1): 19th overall (Washington), OL4
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis
What consistently stood out with Darrisaw were his light, athletic feet. This trait was very evident in the run game, especially as an outside puller, working to the second level, and at times making strong blocks down the field. The other element of Darrisaw's game that really showed up in his tape was his balance and body control, with an easy, smooth agility to his movement that seemed to always have him under control and composed. Darrisaw is a highly gifted LT prospect with all the athletic and movement traits you could want both as a run blocker and in pass protection.
Draft Props to Consider
Los Angeles Chargers to select an offensive lineman with their first pick (+110, BetMGM) — It looks like Darrisaw and Alijah Vera-Tucker will be competing to be the third offensive lineman taken in this year’s draft, and the Chargers have certainly been doing their due diligence with both prospects. It feels like it’s been the same story for the last decade but the Chargers desperately need to upgrade their offensive line, especially now that they have one of the league’s most promising young quarterbacks in Justin Herbert. The Chargers had one of the worst O-lines once again last season, and it should be a priority to keep Herbert healthy and protected going forward. Los Angeles signed both Corey Linsley and Matt Feiler this off-season to do just that, and the next step is to fix a weak left side of the offensive line in the draft.
Over at Grinding the Mocks, the Chargers have selected an offensive tackle in 66.7% of the expert mock drafts in March and April. Darrisaw has been mocked to the Chargers the second-most at 20%, with only Rashawn Slater in front of him at 42%. Vera-Tucker is also very much in play for the Chargers at No. 13 overall, and he’s been mocked to the Chargers the third-most in that timeframe. The Chargers are -110 to draft an offensive lineman at DraftKings so we’re getting some additional value with the plus price at BetMGM.
Landon Dickerson, Alabama
Latest Mock Drafts
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 6): 29th overall (Packers), OL6
Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 15): 38th overall (Bengals), OL7
Todd McShay, ESPN (April 1): 55th overall (Steelers), OL9
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis
Dickerson consistently played with a competitive toughness and physicality that OL coaches will love. He had the look of a player who can be a tempo setter for an entire OL. The more I watched Dickerson, the more I liked him. He's big, physical, and competitive. He's an excellent run blocker with power, movement (he was outstanding executing reach blocks), and more than enough functional movement to be efficient in pass protection.
Draft Props to Consider
Landon Dickerson over 31.5 draft position (-118, DraftKings) — Dickerson has started to be selected in the first round in some expert mock drafts, but the Alabama center is still going outside the top-32 picks in the majority of mock drafts, according to Grinding the Mock. The Steelers at No. 24 and Packers at No. 29 have been the two teams linked to Dickerson the most in the first round after each team lost longtime centers in Maurkice Pouncey and Corey Linsley, respectively, this off-season. Pittsburgh has a bigger need to improve at tackle and they’ve been linked to running backs in the first round quite a bit in the lead up to the draft. Meanwhile, the Packers could go in a couple of different directions but WR help is the top priority to make a grumpy Aaron Rodgers a little happier. I’m leaning toward Dickerson falling into the second round so I’d consider the over on his draft position.
Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State (added April 22)
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 6): 24th overall (Steelers), OL5
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 16): 20th overall (Bengals), OL5
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 1): 25th overall (Jaguars), OL5
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis
Jenkins transitions to the NFL as a solid RT prospect with his strong run-blocking ability and more than efficient pass-protection ability. What most stood out watching Jenkins' 2020 tape was his aggressive, competitive, run blocking with strong finishing traits and nasty edge to his play. Jenkins showed the kind of attitude as a run blocker that sets a physical tempo for an OL and an offense, and that is always in demand in the NFL. Jenkins is not as strong in pass protection, with some issues that need to be coached, but there were some excellent short sets and vertical sets that project well for his development as a quality starting RT in the NFL.
Draft Props to Consider
Teven Jenkins under 26.5 draft position (-112, DraftKings) — This prop wasn’t available at DraftKings when I initially released the offensive line props on April 20. If you read my Najee Harris blurb in the running back props article, you know that I want the Steelers to draft a tackle and Jenkins is the guy I want them to select if he somehow falls to them at No. 24. I believe a run-blocker of Jenkins’ caliber would improve a broken Steelers rushing attack more than drafting a running back like Harris would.
Jenkins climbed into the first round in most mocks starting in March and he’s now the fifth offensive line off the board in most mock drafts after an excellent pro day. He posted 36 bench reps, a 5.03 40-time, and a 33-inch vertical at 6’6”, 317 pounds. The back half of the draft is littered with teams who have offensive line needs between Las Vegas (No. 17), Miami (No. 18), Washington (No. 19), Chicago (No. 20), Indianapolis (No. 21), Tennessee (No. 22), New York Jets (No. 23), Pittsburgh (No. 24), and Jacksonville (No. 25). I just don’t see Jenkins making it through that gauntlet and going over the 26.5 draft position mark.
Brolley’s Best Bets
Kyle Pitts under 5.5 draft position (-121, DraftKings). Risk one unit to win .89 units.
Kyle Pitts first non-QB drafted (+125, DraftKings). Risk one unit to win 1.25 units.
Rashawn Slater under 9.5 draft position (-110, BetMGM). Risk one unit to win .91 units.
Los Angeles Chargers to select an offensive lineman with their first pick (+110, BetMGM). Risk one unit to win 1.1 units.
Alijah Vera-Tucker under 17.5 draft position (+100, BetMGM). Risk one unit to win one unit.
Teven Jenkins under 26.5 draft position (-112, DraftKings). Risk two units to win 1.79 units.
