It’s been a fairly rough start to the season here, but I actually feel pretty good.
My problem, other than a tough few weeks to handicap, has been a lack of time. It’s been a little slower of a transition than usual for me in terms of going from the preseason to getting into the flow and rhythm of the regular season, but I’m now in good shape and will be able to devote more time to these picks.
GAME PICKS
Last Week’s ATS Record: 0-0
Best Bets ATS Record: 4-4
Totals Record: 2-1
- Dallas Cowboys (-4) over Carolina Panthers
- Cleveland Browns (+.5) over Minnesota Vikings
- Green Bay Packers (-2.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers
- Indianapolis Colts at Miami (UNDER 42)
- Tennessee Titans at NYJ (UNDER 44.4)
Player Props
Last week: 8-9
Player Props Record: 26-28
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) OVER 56.5 rushing yards (-118 MGM)
- Jakobi Meyers (NE) OVER 5.5 receptions (-115 MGM)
- Brandon Aiyuk (SF) OVER 42.5 receiving yards (-114 MGM)
- Ezekiel Elliott (Dal) OVER 60.5 rushing yards (-120 FD)
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) OVER 74.5 total yards (-115 MGM)
- Robby Anderson (Car) OVER 46.5 yards (-110 CAESARS)
- Allen Robinson (Chi) OVER 52.5 receiving yards (-114 FD)
- Dawson Knox (Buf) OVER 22.5 receiving yards (-114 FD)
- Patrick Mahomes (KC) OVER 304.5 passing yards (-115 MGM)
- Jalen Waddle (Mia) OVER 3.5 receptions (-149 CAESARS)
- Jalen Hurts (Phi) OVER 31.5 rushing attempts (-125 DK)
- Zack Moss (Buf) OVER 48.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)
- David Montgomery (Chi) OVER 72.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)
- Alexander Mattison (Min) OVER 15.5 rushing yards (-120 DK)
- Daniel Jones (NYG) OVER 28.5 rushing yards (-110 DK)
- DJ Moore (Car) UNDER 80.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)
- Chase Edmunds (Ari) OVER 36.5 receiving yards (-120 DK)
- Allen Lazard (GB) OVER 28.5 receiving yards (-120 DK)
- Antonio Brown (TB) OVER 54.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)
TNF
Laviska Shenault (Jax) OVER 41.5 yards (-110 DK) - It’s been a rough start to the season for Shenault, but it’s also been rough for rookie QB Trevor Lawrence, who has been almost too aggressive throwing the ball down the field. So in a short week, I think they will look to get Shenault the ball to help stay on schedule and ahead of the down. It’s a decent matchup for him in the slot, as well, since slot CB Mike Hilton, while solid, does tend to get picked on. To that point, the Bengals are giving up the 12th-most FP to slot receivers. In Week 1, Minnesota’s KJ Osborn put up 7/76 on 9 targets in this matchup. The Jags are 7.5 road underdogs and the Bengals should be in control here, so the game script should work out well for Sheunault, who is “due.” I also like the expected total of 47, which is a little higher than I expected.
Laviska Shenault (Jax) OVER 1.5 rushing attempts (-125 DK) - This is a weird one, but I’m feeling it with an expanded role for Shenault, and he’s had at least one rushing attempt in 13 of his 17 career games. He has more than one carry in only four of those 13 games, but it’s pull-out-all-the-stops time already for the Jags, especially on national TV with their rookie QB struggling. They’ve already started to help him by committing to James Robinson, so getting the ball in Viska’s hands is next up on the agenda.
