Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread, player prop, and total bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Starting Monday mornings, be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.
Watch List
Minnesota Vikings — Don’t think it will get there but looking for +3s. I have it as a pick-em game and may still add them Sunday morning at +2.5.
GAME PICKS
Best Bets ATS Record: 8-8 (50%, -.77 units); W3: 4-1
Overall ATS Record: 26-22-1 (53.1%); W4: 0-1
Totals Record: 2-1 (67%, +.82 units); W3: 1-0
DETROIT LIONS (+3.5, BETMGM) AT CHICAGO BEARS
The Lions were a 66-yard miracle kick away from beating the Ravens in Week 3 and for this line to potentially at a field goal or less heading into Week 4. HC Matt Nagy and rookie QB Justin Fields set back the game of football with their offensive performance against the Browns last week. The Bears finished with ONE net yard passing and they averaged 1.1 yards per play, which was the second-fewest yards per play in a game this century since the Luke McCown-led Browns averaged .6 yards per play against the Bills in 2004. Meanwhile, the Lions continue to be frisky in the early going and the Ravens needed a NFL-record kick from Justin Tucker to beat Detroit. OC Anthony Lynn figured out how to get the ball in his best player’s hands in the second half with D’Andre Swift posting 6/56 receiving with a rushing touchdown in the loss to the Ravens. Fields should have more success against a bad Lions’ defense this week, but this Bears’ offense shouldn’t be laying more than a field goal to any team right now. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 9/27)
MIAMI DOLPHINS (-1.5, DRAFTKINGS) VS. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
I’ll have the Dolphins power rated as the better team this week even with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback so we’re getting some good value here when you factor in homefield advantage. The Colts are an absolute injury mess and they could be without three more key pieces this week after OG Quenton Nelson (high ankle), DE Kwity Paye (hamstring), and CB Rock Ya-Sin (ankle) left Week 3 early. Carson Wentz looked like a statue at quarterback playing through his two ankle injuries as the Colts managed just 4.6 yards per play going against Tennessee’s weak defense. The Dolphins’ offense wasn’t much better against the Raiders (4.9 yards per play), but they have more firepower at receiver with Will Fuller back and they’re much healthier heading into this contest. HC Brian Flores is going to attack an immobile Wentz behind his patchwork O-line this week so I’ll lay the short line now before it potentially gets to a field goal later this week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 9/27)
CAROLINA PANTHERS (+4.5, CAESARS) AT DALLAS COWBOYS
The Panthers suffered a pair of big injuries last week with RB Christian McCaffrey (hamstring) and CB Jaycee Horn (foot), which is why this line is a bit inflated toward the Cowboys. I’ll take the value since the Panthers have been an undervalued commodity to open the season. They own a perfect overall and ATS record and their average cover margin has been by a healthy 10.2 points. The Cowboys have yet to play in Week 3, and I can only see this line moving closer to a field goal based on injuries and/or performance against the Eagles on MNF. I’ll take the Panthers at this line’s peak this week at +4.5 before it gets shorter this week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 9/27)
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (+1, BETMGM) AT ATLANTA FALCONS
Washington has burned me twice in the early going but I’m going back to the well one last time. They’re off to an 0-3 ATS start after getting torched by Josh Allen in Buffalo last week, but this is a good spot for their defensive line to dominate against one of the league's worst O-lines. The Falcons squeezed out a victory over the Giants last week like Washington did in Week 2, but they were outgained on a per-play basis (5.4 to 5.0) and New York failed to capitalize on two early drives deep into Atlanta territory. The Football Team is hoping to get Curtis Samuel (groin, IR) on the field for the first time this season, which would give this offense a shot of life after struggling against Buffalo’s top-five defense last week.The Football Team will likely close as the short favorites by the end of the week so I’ll take some value early in the week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 9/27)
ARIZONA CARDINALS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (OVER 53.5, FANDUEL)
I’m expecting some fireworks in Los Angeles in this matchup of undefeated NFC West teams. The Cardinals are averaging 34.3 points per game after scoring 31+ points for the third straight game to open the season while the Rams are averaging 31.7 points per game after hanging 34 points on the Buccaneers. These teams combined for 66 points in a Week 13 game last season in Los Angeles, which was totaled at 49 points — multiple starters rested when these teams met in the season finale. The Rams don’t have quite the same NFL-best defense that they sported a year ago and all three of their games have gone over the total in the early going. I’m expecting this total to tick up this week and it could potentially settle in around 55-56 points. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 9/20)
PLAYER PROPS
Player Props Record: 29-26 (52.7%, +.62 units); W4: 1-1 (-.13 units)
All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Thursday Night
Joe Mixon (Cin) over 82.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel) (L)
- 18+ carries in each first three games, averaging 4.3 YPC and 83+ yards in 2-of-3 games, Jags facing second-most RB carries per game (28.3) and big underdogs again.
Ja’Marr Chase (Cin) over 24.5 yards longest reception (-115, Caesars) (W)
- 30+ yard TDs in each of his first three games, Jags giving up third-highest YPA at 9.3 yards.
Sunday
Sam Darnold (Car) over 271.5 passing yards (-115, BetMGM)
- Questions at RB, Cowboys have 325+ yards in every game, potential negative gamescript
Chuba Hubbard (Car) under 13.5 rushing attempts (-110, DraftKings)
- Freeman lurking to take carries, potential negative gamescript, no RB has reached 10+ carries against Dallas
Nyheim Hines (Ind) over 24.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)
- 5/54 receiving last week and Wentz should be pretty immobile again, Dolphins giving up eighth-most receiving yards (52.3) to RBs.
Jaylen Waddle (Mia) over 4.5 receptions (+115, Caesars)
- His targets have grown each week (5<8<13), slot CB Moore has been picked on all year
Jacoby Brissett (Mia) over 29.5 pass attempts (-115, DraftKings)
- FP projection: 35 attempts, weak rushing attack and plenty of short aDOT targets to Waddle, competitive gamescript
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) over 57.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Eagles will be inviting them to run like the Chargers did last week (17/100 rushing), Zeke/Pollard combined for 155 rushing yards, potential positive gamescript
Cordarrelle Patterson (Atl) over 24.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
- 11/140/1 receiving on 14 targets the last two weeks, playmaker in a offense devoid of them
Dawson Knox (Buf) over 22.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)
- Route run percentage climbing every week (45%<77%<80%), Texans giving up 76.3 yards per game to the position
Daniel Jones (NYG) over 22.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel)
- 6+ carries and 27+ yards in every game, needs to be used as a runner with top weapons out
Kareem Hunt (Cle) over 17.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)
- More involved as a receiver with Landry out, 6/74 receiving and ran the fourth-most routes (21), Vikings giving up solid 5.0 catches per game to RBs.
Latavius Murray (Bal) under 35.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Le’Veon will be added to the mix, under 30 yards in two of first three games, Broncos allowing second-fewest rushing yards per game (42.7) to RBs.
Mark Andrews (Bal) over 45.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Steadily improved his fantasy production (5.0<10.7<15.9) and target share (11%<20%<23%)
Matthew Stafford (LAR) over 2.5 touchdown passes (+135, DraftKings)
- Rams averaging 31.7 PPG, multiple TDs in every game and 3+ in 2 of 3, big plus price
A.J. Green (Ari) over 38.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- 6 targets in every game, 44+ yards in last two contests, Rams won’t be keying on him
Allen Lazard (GB) over 28.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
- More targets and snaps available with MVS out, secondary WRs Gabe Davis and Bryan Edwards each posted 40 yards in this matchup
Sunday Night
Mac Jones (NE) over 254.5 passing yards (-114, FanDuel)
- Negative gamescript against a pass-funnel defense, banged-up secondary has allowed 300+ yards in every game.
Monday Night
Darren Waller (LV) over 67.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
- 7+ targets in every game in a potential negative gamescript, Chargers just allowed 7/104 receiving to Kelce
DRAFTKINGS PRO FOOTBALL MILLIONAIRE PICK’EM
This weekly contest from DraftKings requires users to pick five games against the spread for each of the first 17 weeks of the season. Every user gets to throw out their worst week and the person with the most correct picks throughout the season wins a top prize of $1,000,000 — the top 135 finishers win prizes.
Full disclosure: I split my entry with a fellow degenerate so these are five picks we agreed upon for the contest. Look for my picks to be posted mid-Sunday morning.
Last Week: 3-2
Overall: 9-6
Week 4
Houston Texans at BUFFALO BILLS (-16.5)
Cleveland Browns at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+2.5)
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons
BALTIMORE RAVENS (+.5) at Denver Broncos
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-6.5) at New England Patriots
