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Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!
Thursday Night Football
Green Bay Packers (5-2, 5-2 ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (4-4, 4-4), 8:20 p.m.
Implied Team Totals: Packers 27.75, 49ers 20.75
Spread/Total Movements: 3 to 7, 51.5 to 48.5
Weather: 63 degrees, clear, 10-15 mph
Packers Injuries to Watch: RB Aaron Jones (calf), RB Jamaal Williams (COVID-19 list), RB A.J. Dillon (COVID-19 list), LT David Bakhtiari (chest), CB Kevin King (quad, out)
49ers Injuries to Watch: TE George Kittle (foot, IR) QB Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle, IR), WR Deebo Samuel (hamstring, out), WR Brandon Aiyuk (COVID-19 list) WR Kendrick Bourne (COVID-19 list), LT Trent Williams (COVID-19 list), RB Tevin Coleman (knee, out), WR Richie James (ankle), S Jaquiski Tartt (groin)
Packers Trends
The Packers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up loss.
The Packers could be down to just Dexter Williams and Tyler Ervin this week, but the team didn’t rule out Aaron Jones with his calf injury. He’ll be a game-time decision on Thursday. Williams has yet to play a snap this season while Ervin has run the vast majority of his snaps as a receiver this year. The 49ers are allowing the second-fewest FPG to RBs (18.5), but another fill-in back, DeeJay Dallas, totaled 23/58/2 scrimmage last week.
Aaron Rodgers has thrown for multiple TD passes in six of his seven games, and the offense could be on his shoulders a little more than usual with their RB issues. Russell Wilson just threw for 261/4 passing against the 49ers, and San Francisco has allowed multiple passing TDs in three of their last four games.
Davante Adams has scored 30+ FP in three of his four full games this season, and he’s scored five touchdowns in the last two games. He’s also seen double-digit targets in each of his four full games this season. The 49ers just got ripped by D.K. Metcalf for 12/161/2.
Robert Tonyan busted out for 5/79 receiving on seven targets last week after posting his 5/57 receiving on six targets in his first two games back out of their bye with Adams back in the lineup. The 49ers have allowed just one TE touchdown this season and they’re allowing the sixth-fewest FPG to the position (9.0).
Allen Lazard could return this week. He had two top-24 performances in three games before his core-muscle surgery and he saw an 18% target share.
49ers Trends
The 49ers beat the Packers 37-20 in the NFC Championship as eight-point home favorites last season.
The 49ers are 24-9 in Jimmy Garoppolo starts and they’re 5-21 when somebody else has started at QB since the 2017 season.
Nick Mullens got hot in relief of Jimmy G last week, throwing for 238 yards and three touchdowns in the second half against the Seahawks. Mullens owns an 8.4 YPA average in 13 appearances in his career under Kyle Shanahan. He’ll be working with a skeleton crew this week with George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Kendrick Bourne each out this week. The Packers have allowed multiple passing TDs in five of seven games, but Mullens will be without Trent Brown this week.
Brandon Aiyuk will be the go-to receiver once again this week after scoring 17+ FP in each of his last two games with 14/206/1 receiving on 18 targets combined. The Packers are giving up the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game to WRs (138.3). Unfortunately, it came out late Wednesday night that Aiyuk won’t play because he was in close contact with Bourne. The 49ers are down to two slot WRs Trent Taylor and Richie James on the active roster after they cut Dante Pettis earlier this week. The 49ers will be calling up three practice squad receivers for the game, including former first-round pick Kevin White.
The 49ers activated Jordan Reed from the injured reserve last week, and they desperately need him after news broke that Kittle (foot) will miss the next eight weeks. He averaged seven targets and 4.5 receptions per game when Kittle missed earlier this year, which included a 7/50/2 receiving performance against the Jets in Week 2. Mullens has funneled passes to his TEs throughout his career, which included six targets to Reed in Week 3 despite Reed playing just 18 snaps because of his knee injury. If Reed can’t play this week, Ross Dwelley would be the next man up.
The 49ers will be without Tevin Coleman (knee) this week so the backfield will be down to Jerick McKinnon and JaMycal Hasty this week. McKinnon posted 7/39 scrimmage on a 50% snap share last week while Hasty posted 13/31/1 scrimmage on a 41% share. The Packers got torched by Dalvin Cook for 226 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns in Week 8, which probably felt a lot like last year’s NFC Championship when they gave up 285 rushing yards to the 49ers.
Brolley’s Bets
Jerick McKinnon (SF) over 51.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)
*San Francisco 49ers +5.5 (Best Bet)
*I gave out the 49ers at +5.5 earlier in the week before the additions of Trent Brown, Brandon Aiyuk, and Kendrick Bourne to the COVID-19 list. I’d still lean toward the 49ers at +7.5.
