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My power ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season.
I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks for the week, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant. I’m currently baking in a one and a half to two-point advantage for home teams right now. I hope you find these ratings useful and good luck with your wagers!
| Rank | Team | Power Rating | Record (ATS) | Ratings Change | Super Bowl LV Odds |
| 1. | Kansas City Chiefs | 9.5 | 7-1 (6-2) | +.5 | +350 |
| 2. | Baltimore Ravens | 7 | 5-2 (3-4) | -1 | +900 |
| 3. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6.5 | 7-0 (6-1) | +.5 | +550 |
| 4. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6 | 6-2 (4-4) | — | +650 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 6 | 6-1 (5-2) | +.5 | +800 |
| 6. | Green Bay Packers | 5 | 5-2 (5-2) | -.5 | +1400 |
| 7. | New Orleans Saints | 4 | 5-2 (2-5) | — | +1500 |
| 8. | Indianapolis Colts | 3.5 | 5-2 (4-3) | +1 | +2500 |
| 9. | Los Angeles Rams | 3.5 | 5-3 (4-4) | -.5 | +1800 |
| 10. | Tennessee Titans | 3.5 | 5-2 (2-5) | -.5 | +2800 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 2.5 | 5-2 (5-2) | — | +2800 |
| 12. | Buffalo Bills | 2 | 6-2 (3-5) | -.5 | +2200 |
| 13. | Las Vegas Raiders | 1.5 | 4-3 (4-3) | +.5 | +6000 |
| 14. | Los Angeles Chargers | 1 | 2-5 (5-2) | -.5 | +15000 |
| 15. | Cleveland Browns | 1 | 5-3 (3-5) | -.5 | +5000 |
| 16. | San Francisco 49ers | 1 | 4-4 (4-4) | -2.5 | +3300 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | .5 | 3-4-1 (3-5) | +.5 | +4000 |
| 18. | Chicago Bears | 0 | 5-3 (5-3) | — | +6000 |
| 19. | Atlanta Falcons | 0 | 2-6 (3-5) | +.5 | +20000 |
| 20. | Minnesota Vikings | 0 | 2-5 (4-3) | +.5 | +10000 |
| 21. | New England Patriots | 0 | 2-5 (2-5) | — | +8000 |
| 22. | Miami Dolphins | -.5 | 4-3 (5-2) | +1 | +7000 |
| 23. | Houston Texans | -.5 | 1-6 (1-6) | — | +20000 |
| 24. | Carolina Panthers | -.5 | 3-5 (4-4) | — | +15000 |
| 25. | Detroit Lions | -1 | 3-4 (3-4) | -1 | +10000 |
| 26. | Cincinnati Bengals | -1.5 | 2-5-1 (6-2) | +.5 | +40000 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | -2.5 | 3-4 (5-2) | +.5 | +15000 |
| 28. | New York Giants | -3 | 1-7 (5-3) | +.5 | +50000 |
| 29. | Washington | -4 | 2-5 (4-3) | — | +15000 |
| 30. | Dallas Cowboys | -6 | 2-6 (0-8) | -1.5 | +15000 |
| 31. | Jacksonville Jaguars | -6.5 | 1-6 (2-5) | -.5 | +100000 |
| 32. | New York Jets | -9.5 | 0-8 (1-7) | — | +150000 |
Week 9 Risers
Teams who improved from the last Power Ratings update on Oct. 28.
Kansas City Chiefs (9 to 9.5) — The Chiefs have clearly destined themselves for the rest of the league through the first half of the season with a 7-1 overall record and a more impressive 6-2 ATS mark. I’m bumping them up in my ratings a little higher since they’re now covering spreads at an incredible 73.1% clip since the start of 2019 (19-7-1, postseason included).
Pittsburgh Steelers (6 to 6.5) — The Steelers jumped out to a quick lead against the Ravens with an early pick-six of Lamar Jackson, and the defense made the lead hold up with Minkah Fitzpatrick’s PBU on Lamar’s last attempt for the victory. Pittsburgh is the only remaining unbeaten team.
Seattle Seahawks (5.5 to 6) — The Seahawks benefitted from a hobbled Jimmy Garoppolo struggling mightily, but Seattle’s defense finally showed glimpses of hope for at least three quarters in Week 8. Nick Mullens then came into the game and led the 49ers to three fourth-quarter touchdowns to quell some of that hope.
Indianapolis Colts (2.5 to 3) — The Colts emerged from their bye in Week 8 and walloped the Lions 41-21 as three-point road favorites. Philip Rivers threw for 262 yards and three touchdowns while their defense limited the Lions to just 29 rushing yards on 13 carries (2.2 YPC).
Las Vegas Raiders (1 to 1.5) — Jon Gruden won in “old-school” fashion, as he described it, with a 16-6 victory over the Browns in ugly, blustery conditions in Cleveland. Josh Jacobs grounded out 128 rushing yards on 31 carries even with RT Trent Brown a late scratch.
Philadelphia Eagles (0 to 5) — Carson Wentz’s play continues to be uneven from week to week, but his weaponry is finally starting to improve with Jalen Reagor and Dallas Goedert returning to the lineup last week. Travis Fulgham also continues to show star potential with his fifth straight game with 12+ FP.
Atlanta Falcons (-.5 to 0) — The Falcons own a lowly 2-6 record with a not so terrible -15 point differential. Atlanta dropped four of its first six games in one-score games before finally winning its first one-score game over the Panthers in Week 8.
Minnesota Vikings (-.5 to 0) — Dalvin Cook won the week for fantasy and DFS by exploding for 226 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns in Minnesota’s 28-22 upset victory over the Packers. We’ll see if Cook and the Vikings offensive line can keep the momentum going against the Lions this week.
Miami Dolphins (-1.5 to -.5) — I’ve been higher than most on the Dolphins this season and even I need to adjust them a little higher this week off of their defensive performance against Jared Goff. Miami did a great job of hiding Tua Tagovailoa in his first career start as he threw for just 93 yards and a touchdown on 22 attempts (4.2 YPA).
Cincinnati Bengals (-2 to -1) — The Titans owned a 2.1 yards per play advantage over the Bengals, but Cincinnati left Week 8 with a decisive 31-20 victory thanks to their third-down efficiency (67% to 56%) and by winning the turnover battle (2 to 0).
Denver Broncos (-3 to -2.5) — The Broncos had just two first downs to the Chargers’ 21 first downs in the third quarter of Week 8 before Denver totally flipped the script on Los Angeles. The Chargers outscored the Broncos 28-6 over the final 21 minutes, which included the game-winning touchdown pass from Drew Lock to K.J. Hamler.
New York Giants (-3.5 to -3) — The Giants stood toe to toe with the Buccaneers in Week 8 with both teams averaging 5.2 yards per play on Monday Night Football. The difference between the teams was New York’s second-year quarterback had two costly turnovers while Tampa Bay’s 21-year veteran protected the rock and didn’t turn the ball over.
Week 9 Fallers
Teams who worsened from the last Power Ratings update on Oct. 28.
Baltimore Ravens (8 to 7) — The Ravens dropped a close decision to the Steelers because of Lamar Jackson’s sloppy play, but the bigger loss came when LT Ronnie Stanley suffered a season-ending ankle injury after signing a $98.75 million extension before the game. Baltimore has covered just one spread in its last five games.
Green Bay Packers (5.5 to 5) — The Packers got torched by Dalvin Cook for 226 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns in Week 8, which probably felt a lot like last year’s NFC Championship when they gave up 285 rushing to the 49ers, who is their Week 9 opponent.
Tennessee Titans (4 to 3.5) — The Titans took a ton of money at the end of last week and they closed as seven-point road favorites against the Bengals, but Cincinnati stunned Tennessee in a 31-20 upset victory. The Titans stand at 5-2 overall but their 2-5 ATS mark shows that their overall record is a bit fraudulent.
Los Angeles Rams (4 to 3.5) — The Rams offense is trending in the wrong direction as they head into their Week 9 bye. Jared Goff threw for 355 yards against the Dolphins, but he needed 61 attempts (5.8 YPA) to get there and he did with four critical turnovers.
Cleveland Browns (1.5 to 1) — It’s tough to take much from the Browns’ 16-6 loss to the Raiders ugly, blustery conditions in Cleveland. The Browns are headed toward their bye in Week 9 and they desperately needed it with a number of key players currently nursing injuries right now.
San Francisco 49ers (3 to 1) — The hits just keep coming for the 49ers as they learned that Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) and George Kittle (foot) could miss the rest of the season. Nick Mullens will be the starter for now, and he’ll be lacking in receivers with Deebo Samuel (hamstring) also out of the lineup for the time being.
Los Angeles Chargers (1.5 to 1) — Philip Rivers is gone but the Chargers keep inventing ways to blow games after a shocking loss to the Broncos after holding a 21-point lead in the middle of the third quarter. The Chargers are now 3-14 in one-score games since the start of last season.
Detroit Lions (0 to -1) — The Lions could be down their top offensive weapon, Kenny Golladay (groin), and their top defensive player, Trey Flowers (wrist, IR), for the next couple of weeks. The Lions are 0-3 ATS in the three games that Golladay has partially or completely missed this season with an average margin of defeat of 15.3 points.
Dallas Cowboys (-4.5 to -6) — I can’t sink the Cowboys low enough in my rankings at this point. Carson Wentz did everything he could to keep the Cowboys competitive in Week 8 and the Cowboys still couldn’t find the end zone as they lost by 14 points. Andy Dalton will miss again this week after entering the COVID-19 list, which means Ben DiNucci will get at least one more start.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-6 to -6.5) — It came out during Jacksonville’s bye week that Gardner Minshew had been playing through multiple fractures and a strained ligament in his throwing thumb. They’ll now turn to 2020 sixth-round pick Jake Luton to try to right the ship for the time being. Jacksonville’s bigger issues have been on defense as they’ve allowed 30+ points in six straight games.
