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Each Monday morning during the season, I’ll preview three games with spreads that I think will move by the end of the week. This article is designed to help you get the best odds possible by helping you to decide if you should place a bet early in the week or if you should wait to wager until closer to kickoff based on potential line movements. I’ll include any early week leans and wagers that I make in my write-ups.
Week 9 Opening Lines
TNF
Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Buffalo Bills
Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons (-4)
Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans (-6)
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5)
Houston Texans (-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars
New York Giants at Washington Football Team (-3.5)
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys — No line because of the Dallas QB situation
Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5)
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5)
MNF
New England Patriots (-7.5) at New York Jets
Byes
Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia Eagles
Baltimore Ravens (5-2, 3-4 ATS) at Indianapolis Colts (5-2, 4-3)
Opening Line: Ravens -3.5
Recent Results: The Ravens fell two games behind the Steelers in the AFC North with their 28-24 loss to Pittsburgh as four-point home favorites. Lamar Jackson completed 13/29 passes for 208 yards and two touchdowns, but he threw a pair of costly interceptions, which included a pick-six on the opening drive of the game. The Colts emerged from their bye in Week 8 and walloped the Lions 41-21 as three-point road favorites. Philip Rivers threw for 262 yards and three touchdowns while their defense limited the Lions to just 29 rushing yards on 13 carries (2.2 YPC).
Injuries/Developments to Follow: The Ravens suffered a big loss with LT Ronnie Stanley suffering a season-ending ankle injury in Week 8 after just signing a $98.75 million extension before the weekend. RG Tyre Philips also left early with an ankle injury so the Ravens could be rolling out a patchwork O-line this week. Indy’s T.Y. Hilton suffered a groin injury last week while CB Rock Ya-Sin left early to be evaluated for a concussion.
Potential Line Movement: I’ll have the Ravens power rated as less than field-goal favorites later this week so I already bet on the Colts +3.5 early in the week. I wouldn’t be surprised if Indianapolis sees some love this week with the Colts coming off an easy ATS cover and with the Ravens falling short of covering last week against the Steelers. Baltimore has covered just one spread in its last five games so the bandwagon could be a little light this week heading to Indianapolis this week. I’d wait until later in the week to see if this line dips below a field goal if I wanted to back the Ravens this week.
New York Giants (1-6, 4-3 ATS) at Washington Football Team (2-5, 4-3)
- Opening Line: Football Team -3.5
- Recent Results: The Giants have yet to take the field in Week 8 against the Buccaneers, a game in which they enter as 12.5-point home underdogs. New York blew an 11-point fourth-quarter lead against the Eagles on Thursday Night Football back in Week 7. The Football Team spent the last week on a bye after they stomped the Cowboys 25-3 as one-point home underdogs the last time out in Week 7.
- Injuries/Developments to Follow: The Giants have yet to play in Week 8 so I’m just tracking LG Will Hernandez (COVID-19 list) and Devonta Freeman (ankle) heading into their Monday night showdown with the Buccaneers. The Football Team lost S Landon Collins to a torn Achilles tendon coming out of their Week 7 victory over the Cowboys, which is a big loss for this secondary.
- Potential Line Movement: I have Giants and the Football Team power rated as essentially equals so I believe the Football Team should be around two-point favorites this week when you factor in homefield advantage. These teams looked like equals back when the Giants won by a point in Week 6 when Washington failed to convert a two-point conversion for the win. The Giants closed as two-point home favorites in that game so Washington got the narrow cover in the 20-19 contest. I bet the Giants +3.5 early in the week because I think this line will at least get down to a straight field goal, and I think this line could finish less than a field goal depending on New York’s Monday Night Football result against the Buccaneers. I would wait for this line to dip down to a field goal if I was looking to back the Football Team coming out of their bye.
Houston Texans (1-6, 1-6 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6, 2-5)
- Opening Line: Texans -6
- Injuries/Developments to Follow: Both the Texans and the Jaguars are coming off of their byes in Week 8, but there’s a chance both teams could look a little different this week. Houston could be sellers by Tuesday’s 4 p.m. trade deadline since they have little hope for the rest of the season and since they have little in draft capital. Jacksonville is expected to make a change at quarterback this week and I believe they’ll make the switch from 2019 sixth-round pick Gardner Minshew to 2020 sixth-round pick Jake Luton.
- Potential Line Movement: I had a tough time finding a third game to write up this week. I think this line could get up to a full touchdown by the end of the week with the Jaguars expected to turn to Luton or Mike Glennon this week. Minshew hasn’t been playing great in the last couple of weeks but a switch to either an unproven rookie or to a proven terrible backup quarterback will cause this line to climb higher this week. The Texans could be sellers before Tuesday’s trade deadline, but I would be slightly stunned if any line-movers like Will Fuller will be headed to new destinations. I wagered on the Texans -6 to start this week because I can only see this climbing closer to a full touchdown by the weekend. Houston smoked Jacksonville 30-14 as 6.5-point home favorites back in Week 5 for their only victory of the season. The Texans shouldn’t have any issues finding the end zone this week as the Jaguars have allowed 30+ points in six straight games heading into their bye week.
