Week 8 Sunday Trends and Picks

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

My Player Props for Week 8

• Mark Andrews (Bal) over 42.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

• Lamar Jackson (Bal) over 1.5 passing TDs (+136, DraftKings)

• Diontae Johnson (Pit) over 52.5 receiving yards (-115, William Hill)

• Devin Singletary (Buf) under 49.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings)

• Stefon Diggs (Buf) over 56.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

• Le’Veon Bell (KC) over 49.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

• Malcolm Brown (LAR) over 27.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings)

• Matthew Stafford (Det) under 274.5 passing yards (-112, DraftKings)

• Henry Ruggs (LV) over 31.5 receiving yards (-115, PointsBet)

• Rashard Higgins (Cle) over 3.5 receptions (+125, DraftKings)

• Brandon Aiyuk (SF) over 4.5 receptions (+128, DraftKings)

• Keenan Allen (LAC) over 68.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)

• Justin Herbert (LAC) over 252.5 passing yards (-110, FanDuel)

• Allen Robinson (Chi) over 4.5 receptions (-121, DraftKings)

• Ben DiNucci (Dal) over 13.5 rushing yards (-110, William Hill)

• Rob Gronkowski (TB) over 38.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)

Early Afternoon Games

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-0, 5-1 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (5-1, 3-3), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Steelers 21.5, Ravens 25

• Spread/Total Movements: 5.5 to 3.5, 49 to 46.5

• Weather: 58 degrees, 50% of rain, 10-15 mph

• Steelers Injuries to Watch: RB Mark Ingram (ankle), DB Jimmy Smith (Achilles)

• Ravens Injuries to Watch: Slot CB Mike Hilton (shoulder)

Steelers Trends

• Pittsburgh is the only remaining unbeaten team in the league.

• The Steelers have the league’s fourth-best point differential at +65.

• Pittsburgh is riding a four-game ATS winning streak.

• The Steelers are 3-1-1 toward overs in their last five games.

• The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven games in this series.

• The Steelers, the Packers, and the Chargers are the last teams with just one ATS loss.

• Diontae Johnson stepped back into the lineup and paced Pittsburgh’s passing attack with 15 targets (30.6% share), which he turned into 9/80/2 receiving against the Titans. Johnson now has double-digit targets and a 30% target share or better in each of his three full games, which he’s turned into two performances of 20+ FP. Johnson is quickly getting labeled as injury-prone after he limped off late in the fourth quarter with a leg injury. He said after the game that he suffered an “ankle bruise” and that he’ll play against the Ravens this week.

• Chase Claypool had posted five touchdowns and 195 scrimmage yards combined in his last two games without Johnson in the lineup. In Week 7, Claypool saw just one target, which he turned into a two-yard loss against the Titans, even with Ben Roethlisberger attempting 49 passes (2% share). Claypool at least ran a route on 66% of Big Ben’s dropbacks (33 of 50), which dwarfed James Washington, who ran routes on just 24% of Roethlisberger’s dropbacks. The Ravens have allowed just three TDs to WRs so far, with one going to Travis Fulgham in their last game.

• JuJu Smith-Schuster led the team by running a route on 98% of Big Ben’s dropbacks last week, which he turned into a season-best 14 targets and 9/85 receiving. He posted 7/75/1 receiving against the Ravens early last season before hanging 2/6 in the season finale.

• Eric Ebron saw a season-high eight targets last week and he finished with 6/50 receiving. The Ravens have allowed three TDs to TEs this season.

• Big Ben posted a season-high 268 passing yards last week, but he averaged just 5.5 YPA as he needed a season-high 49 targets. He’s still thrown for multiple TD passes in five of his first six games. The Ravens have allowed 30+ FP twice this season, but they’ve held every other QB under 19 FP.

• James Conner has accounted for 100+ scrimmage yards in four of his last five games since being benched in the season opener. He failed to find the end zone against the Titans last week for the first time in four games. Miles Sanders was the first RB to run for 75+ yards against the Ravens in Week 6, and they’ve allowed just two TDs to RBs this season.

Ravens Trends

• The Ravens will allow a total of 6,600 fans to attend this week.

• The Ravens have the league’s second-best point differential at +75.

• Baltimore has won 15 of its last 16 games with an 11-4-1 ATS record in that stretch.

• The Ravens have played under the total in four straight home games.

• Lamar Jackson had his first 100+ rushing game the last time out, but he failed to reach 200+ passing yards for the fourth straight games. He’s also averaged fewer than 7.0 YPA in three of his last four games. The Steelers held Lamar to just 14.44 FPG in his only matchups with Pittsburgh last season (he sat out the season finale).

• Mark Andrews has yet to hit 60+ receiving yards in a game this season, and he’s fallen below 30 receiving yards three times. He’s at least tied for the position-lead in touchdowns with five scores. The Steelers have allowed just one tight end (Noah Fant) to score this season, and they just limited Jonnu Smith and Anthony Firkser to 3/16 receiving.

• Marquise Brown has seen 6+ targets in every game and he has 4+ catches in five of his six contests. The Steelers have given up nine TDs to WRs this season, and A.J. Brown had a long catch-and-run TD against them last week

• We need to see about Mark Ingram’s availability for this week after he suffered an ankle injury before their bye week. Gus Edwards posted 14/26/1 scrimmage and J.K. Dobbins had 11/29 scrimmage in that contest with Ingram leaving early. The Steelers are allowing the fewest FPG to the position (16.4), including just 3.3 YPC (2nd-fewest) and 58.5 rushing yards per game (2nd-fewest).

Brolley’s Bets

Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5 (Best Bet)

Mark Andrews (Bal) over 42.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Lamar Jackson (Bal) over 1.5 passing TDs (Best Bet)

Diontae Johnson (Pit) over 52.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

New England Patriots (2-4, 2-4 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (5-2, 3-4), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Patriots 18.5, Bills 22.5
• Spread/Total Movements: 3.5 to 4, 44.5 to 41
• Weather: 48 degrees, 70% chance of rain, 20 mph
• Patriots Injuries to Watch: Slot WR Julian Edelman (knee, out), WR N’Keal Harry (concussion), RB Damien Harris (ankle), CB Stephon Gilmore (knee), DB Kyle Dugger (ankle), LG Joe Thuney (ankle), RG Shaq Mason (calf), DE John Simon (shoulder), DL Lawrence Guy (ankle)
• Bills Injuries to Watch: S Micah Hyde (concussion), DE Jerry Hughes (foot), DL Quinton Jefferson (knee), LB Matt Milano (pec), WR Isaiah McKenzie (ankle), CB Josh Norman (hamstring), DT Vernon Butler (DT), LG Cody Ford (knee), RG Brian Winters (knee)

Patriots Trends

• The Patriots are riding their first three-game losing streak since October 2002.
• The Patriots are averaging 9.3 points per game in the last four weeks, which is worse than the Jets at 12.0 PPG.
• New England is 1-4 ATS in its last five games.
• Cam Newton has thrown for 165 or fewer yards in all but one of his games and ranks dead last in QB rating in his last three games (48.5). He’s averaging 7.6 carries per game over his last three games after averaging 13.0 in his first two games. He’s accounted for just two touchdowns in his last three games. The Bills had allowed 20+ FP to QBs in five straight games before Sam Darnold posted 2.8 FP last week.
• Julian Edelman has caught four of his 14 targets in his last three games with Cam.
• N’Keal Harry suffered a concussion early last week, which could leave Jakobi Meyers and Damiere Byrd as the top perimeter WRs this week. Meyers posted 4/60 receiving on six targets after Harry left last week while Byrd had just a 16-yard catch on two targets. The Bills are giving up the seventh-fewest FPG to WRs this season (33.0).
• James White played just 10 snaps last week even with the Patriots trailing big for most of the game. Rex Burkhead (25 snaps) played ahead of White and Damien Harris (21 snaps) worked as the early-down runner. The Bills are giving up 104.6 rushing yards per game to RBs on 4.4 YPC while allowing 1.0 rushing TDs per game. They’ve allowed little receiving production to RBs, giving up just 28.9 yards and 4.0 catches per game.

Bills Trends

• The Bills are not allowing fans this week.
• Buffalo was last favored against the Patriots back in September 2015
• The Bills have played under the total in consecutive games after playing over the total in their first five games.
• The Bills have just 46 points in their last three games and they’ve failed to reach 20+ points in any of those contests.
• Buffalo has covered four straight games as a home favorite.
• Josh Allen has posted 18 or fewer FP in his last three games after topping 25+ FP in his first four games. He threw for 307 yards and he ran for 61 yards last week but the Bills failed to find the end zone against the Jets. Allen combined for 361/2 passing with three INTs against the Patriots last year, and he added 12/69/1 rushing.
• Stefon Diggs has 6+ catches in six of his seven games, but he’s failed to reach 50+ receiving yards in his last two games with Allen cooling off. He’s still averaging 10 targets per game and 86.1 receiving yards per game. Diggs will see a lot of Stephon Gilmore, who put his house up for sale this week with the trade deadline looming.
• Cole Beasley has posted 11+ FP in six straight games, including a season-high 22.2 FP last week on 11/112 receiving on 12 targets against the Jets. He’s seen 6+ targets in three straight games with John Brown out or limited.
• Devin Singletary owned just a slight lead over Zack Moss in snaps (40 to 35), routes run (19 to 18), and opportunities (13 to 10) last week. Singletary has failed to reach 7+ FP in three straight games while Moss reached 10.2 FP last week thanks to 3/25 receiving. Jeff Wilson roasted the Patriots for 112/3 rushing last week but the Bills aren’t in the same ballpark in terms of a run game.

Brolley’s Bets

Buffalo Bills -3.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Devin Singletary (Buf) under 49.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

Stefon Diggs (Buf) over 56.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Tennessee Titans (5-1, 2-4 ATS) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-5-1, 5-2), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Titans 29, Bengals 23.5
• Spread/Total Movements: 6 to 5.5, 54.5 to 52.5
• Weather: 46 degrees, clear, 15 mph
• Titans Injuries to Watch: DL Jadeveon Clowney (knee), WR A.J. Brown (knee), CB Kristian Fulton (knee), CB Johnathan Joseph (illness), RT Dennis Kelly (knee)
• Bengals Injuries to Watch: RB Joe Mixon (foot), WR Tee Higgins (chest), C Trey Hopkins (concussion), LT Jonah Williams (stinger), RT Bobby Hart (knee)

Titans Trends

• The Titans lost for the first time last week but they’ve failed to cover for the fourth time.
• Tennessee is 4-0-1 toward overs in its last five games.
• Ryan Tannehill is leading all QBs with an 8.9 YPA average since 2019. He threw for multiple TDs for the fifth time in six games last week, and he’ll face a Bengals defense that just allowed 297/5 passing to Baker Mayfield. Cincy has allowed multiple TD passes in four of their last five games.
• A.J. Brown has been the WR1 over the last three weeks since returning to the lineup in Week 5 after missing three weeks with a bone bruise in his knee. He nearly clawed the Titans back to a victory over the Steelers in Week 5, starting with his 73-yard, catch-and-run TD on one of the in-breaking routes that he excels at. He finished with 6/153/1 receiving on eight targets in their three-point loss to the Steelers, which gives him 21+ FP in three straight games. Backup perimeter WRs Rashard Higgins and Donovan Peoples-Jones combined for 9/166/1 receiving last week after OBJ left early.
• Corey Davis has quietly posted 11+ FP in each of his four games this season after recording 6/35/1 receiving on a season-high 10 targets against the Steelers last week in his first game off the COVID-19 list.
• Jonnu Smith didn’t look quite right playing through an ankle issue in Week 7 against the Steelers as he finished with just a nine-yard catch on four targets. Smith now has just 2/22 receiving on six targets in his last two games after opening the season with 11+ FP in each of his first four games. Smith should get healthier off of his ankle injury and he has a great spot for a bounce-back performance against a Bengals defense that got gashed for three TDs by Harrison Bryant and David Njoku in Week 7.
• Derrick Henry has 19+ carries in every game this season and he’s now scored seven TDs in his last four games. The Bengals haven’t allowed a rushing TD since they allowed four rushing TDs in their first two games, but they’re still allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game (113.6).

Bengals Trends

• The Bengals are allowing up to 12,000 fans to attend games.
• The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
• Joe Burrow is coming off his first 400+ yard passing game against the Browns last week, which now gives him 300+ passing yards in five of his first seven games. The Titans defense ranks in the bottom half of the league in both sacks (13) and adjusted sack rate (6.2%), which will give Burrow a chance at success especially with LT Jonah Williams (neck) and C Trey Hopkins (concussion) potentially missing this week. The Titans have allowed 250+ passing yards and multiple TD passes to opposing QBs in five straight games.
• Tyler Boyd hung 11/101/1 receiving on 13 targets against the Browns last week for his third game with 20+ FP this season. JuJu Smith-Schuster posted 9/85 receiving on 14 targets against the Titans last week.
• Tee Higgins has now scored a TD and/or posted 60+ receiving yards in five straight games. He also has 4+ catches in five straight games. The Titans went out of their way to shut down rookie Chase Claypool last week but Diontae Johnson went nuts with 9/80/2 receiving on 15 targets.
• A.J. Green has posted his best games of the season over the last two weeks, combining for 15/178 receiving on 24 targets against the Colts and the Browns in Weeks 6-7. He had just 14/119 receiving on 34 targets in Weeks 1-5. Green has yet to find the end zone this season, but his play is definitely trending upward as he gets his legs back underneath and as he gets more accustomed to Burrow. Green is averaging 8.3 targets per game and he’s finally playing well enough to take advantage of those looks.
• With the Bengals on bye in Week 9, there’s a great chance that the organization holds Joe Mixon (foot) out this week against the Titans if he isn’t at 100%. The Bengals don’t have to rush him back since they have one of the league’s better backup options in Gio Bernard, who pulled his best Mixon imitation in Week 7. Gio posted 13/37 rushing (2.8 YPC) while adding 5/59/1 receiving on 76% of the snaps in Cincinnati’s loss to the Browns.

Brolley’s Bets

Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Las Vegas Raiders (3-3, 3-3 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (5-2, 3-4), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Raiders 24, Browns 26.5
• Spread/Total Movements: 3 to 2.5, 54.5 to 50.5
• Weather: 45 degrees, 45% chance of rain, 25 mph
• Raiders Injuries to Watch: RB Josh Jacobs (knee), WR Bryan Edwards (ankle), DE Carl Nassib (toe), DT Maliek Collins (shoulder)
• Browns Injuries to Watch: WR Odell Beckham (ACL, IR), TE Austin Hooper (abdomen, out), LG Wyatt Teller (calf), RT Jack Conklin (knee), DE Myles Garrett (ankle), RB Kareem Hunt (ribs), WR Jarvis Landry (hip/ribs), DT Larry Ogunjobi (hamstring), C JC Tretter (knee)

Raiders Trends

• The Raiders have played over the total in all six of their games.
• Las Vegas is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.
• Derek Carr has thrown for 260+ yards and multiple TDs in each of his last five games, which has helped him to average 21.4 FP in Weeks 2-7. The Browns have allowed four monster performances of 25+ FP to opposing QBs this season, including last week when Joe Burrow threw for 400+ yards and three TDs against them.
• Henry Ruggs has seen just an 11% target share this season as he’s seen exactly three targets in three straight games. The Browns did struggle with the speed of James Washington (4/68/1 receiving) and Chase Claypool (4/74) two weeks ago.
• Nelson Agholor has played on 79% of the snaps with a 17% target share in the last two weeks, and he’s turned in three straight games with 14+ FP. He’s turned into the #1 WR with the Raiders using their first-round pick Ruggs as a downfield specialist. Tee Higgins and A.J. Green combined for 12/153/1 receiving on 18 targets last week against the Browns.
• Darren Waller is still the #1 receiver in this offense as he’s posted 10+ FP in five of his six games, including 6/501/ receiving on nine targets against the Buccaneers last week. The Browns have allowed 10+ FP five different times to opposing TEs.
• Josh Jacobs has averaged more than 3.7 YPC just once in six games this season, but he does at least have 3+ catches in five of his six games. He also has five TDs but they’ve come in just two games this season. The Browns are allowing just 68.9 rushing yards per game to RBs (fifth-fewest) and 3.7 YPC.

Browns Trends

• The Browns are allowing up to 12,000 spectators to attend this week.
• Cleveland is 5-1 toward overs in its last six games.
• The Browns are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight home games.
• Odell Beckham (ACL, IR) left behind a 26% target share and a 40% air yards share through the first six weeks of the season.
• Baker Mayfield reached 18+ FP for the first time last week after posting 297/5 passing after OBJ left the lineup. The Raiders just allowed 369/4 passing to Tom Brady last week.
• Jarvis Landry hasn’t looked completely healthy all season long after he needed off-season hip surgery, but Mayfield and this passing attack are going to need him to step up. Landry has yet to score a touchdown in 2020, he’s topped six targets just once, and he has 50+ receiving yards in just two of his seven games. The Raiders allowed 143/1 receiving to Buccaneers WRs out of the slot last week.
• Rashard Higgins caught all six of his targets for 110 yards with a 21.4% target share. He also ran a route on every Mayfield dropback after OBJ left. Higgins owns a 71.1% catch rate with a 14.6 YPR average in his three seasons since Mayfield joined the team.
• Harrison Bryant saw more snaps (40 to 31) and he ran more routes (17 to 12) than David Njoku in Week 7. The rookie out of Florida Atlantic finished as the TE1 last week by posting 4/56/2 receiving on five targets against the Bengals last week. Bryant gets an appealing matchup against a Raiders defense that allowed 42 FP to Travis Kelce (8/108/1 receiving) and Rob Gronkowski (5/62/) in their last two games.
• Kareem Hunt has handled 70% of the snaps and 75% of the opportunities in the Cleveland backfield with Nick Chubb out the last three weeks. Hunt has scored 18+ FP in three of his last four games. The Raiders haven’t allowed 60+ rushing yards to an individual back since Week 3 but they’re still allowing the second-most FPG to RBs (32.4).

Brolley’s Bets

Las Vegas Raiders +2.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Henry Ruggs (LV) over 31.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Rashard Higgins (Cle) over 3.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Indianapolis Colts (4-2, 3-3 ATS) at Detroit Lions (3-3, 3-3), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Colts 26.5, Lions 23.5
• Spread/Total Movements: 3.5 to 3
• Weather: Dome
• Colts Injuries to Watch: C Ryan Kelly (knee), TE Mo Alie-Cox (knee)
• Lions Injuries to Watch: LT Taylor Decker (shoulder), RB Adrian Peterson (abdomen), CB Desmond Trufant (hamstring)

Colts Trends

• The Colts are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games.
• Philip Rivers needed a completely negative game script before their bye week to score 17+ FP for the first time as he posted 371/3 passing against the Bengals. The Colts enter as three-point road favorites this week against the Lions, who allowed between 18-24 FP in five of their six games.
• T.Y. Hilton didn’t benefit from that wonky game script in Week 6, posting just an 11-yard catch on five targets against the Bengals. He’s failed to reach 70+ receiving yards in any game with just two games with more than five targets. The Lions have at least allowed nine receivers to reach double-digit FP in their last four games.
• Trey Burton finished as the TE4 the last time the Colts took the field in Week 6 with Burton posting 4/58/1 receiving on five targets while adding a rushing touchdown as the QB in the Wildcat formation. Burton is averaging 5.3 targets per game in his first three games back, but the Colts will likely get Mo Alie-Cox back this week to muddy the waters a bit for Burton. The Lions are giving up the second-fewest FPG to TEs this season (7.4), but they haven’t been tested much and they just allowed 6/68 receiving to Hayden Hurst.
• We’ll see if the Colts come out of their bye week featuring Jonathan Taylor a little more, much like their opponents did with D’Andre Swift out of their bye week. Taylor’s snap share has trended up in four straight games (41%<45%<55%<59%). He promisingly played 59% of the snaps in that extremely negative game script in Week 6, which was a great sign for Taylor and a not-so-great sign for Nyheim Hines. Taylor posted a season-best 115 scrimmage yards thanks to his 4/55 receiving line. The Lions have allowed multiple rushing TDs to three different RBs (Gurley/Latavius/Jones), and Detroit is giving up the fourth-most rushing yards per game to RBs (114.2).

Lions Trends

• The Lions are not allowing fans to attend this week.
• The Lions have covered spreads in three out of their last four games.
• Detroit is 8-1 toward overs in its last nine home games.
• Matthew Stafford threw for 300+ yards for the first time last week, but his TD pass to T.J. Hockenson for the game-winning score with no time left was his only scoring play. He’s now averaging just 32.4 attempts per game since the season opener. The Colts are allowing the second-fewest FPG to QBs this season (13.4) but they’ve faced an easy slate of QBs so far.
• Kenny Golladay has seen between 6-8 targets for 14-17 FP in each of his first four games this season. He’s either scored a TD or topped 100+ receiving yards in every game. Tee Higgins posted 6/125 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago.
• Marvin Jones showed a pulse for the first time since Golladay was out of the lineup in the first two weeks of the season. He posted season-highs in catches (5) and yards (80) after OC Darrell Bevell talked about getting him more involved prior to Week 7. A.J. Green posted 8/96 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago.
• T.J. Hockenson has scored a TD and/or posted 50+ receiving yards in every game. He’s tied with Mark Andrews for the position lead in end-zone targets with seven, but he’s seen just 24 other targets through six games. The Colts are allowing the fewest FPG to TEs this season (5.1) but they haven’t exactly faced a gauntlet of TEs.
• D’Andre Swift led the backfield with 13 touches and 28 snaps while Adrian Peterson had 12 touches and 19 snaps last week. Kerryon Johnson didn’t have a single touch despite playing 14 snaps. Joe Mixon and Gio Bernard combined for 105/2 scrimmage against the Colts in Week 6 while Kareem Hunt had 93/1 scrimmage in Week 5.

Brolley’s Bets

Detroit Lions +3.5 (Best Bet)

Matthew Stafford (Det) under 274.5 passing yards (Best Bet)

Minnesota Vikings (1-5, 3-3 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (5-1, 5-1), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Vikings 22.5, Packers 28.5
• Spread/Total Movements: 7 to 6, 55 to 51
• Weather: 35 degrees, clear, 20-25 mph
• Vikings Injuries to Watch: RB Dalvin Cook (groin), CB Cameron Dantzler (COVID-19 list) CB Mike Hughes (neck), CB Holton Hill (foot), CB Kris Boyd (hamstring), LB Todd Davis (COVID-19 list)
• Packers Injuries to Watch: RB Aaron Jones (calf), LT David Bakhtiari (chest), CB Kevin King (quad), TE Marcedes Lewis (knee), LB Preston Smith (shoulder), LB Za’Darius Smith (ankle), S Darnell Savage (quad), LB Krys Barnes (shoulder), RB Tyler Ervin (wrist), LB Rashan Gary (ankle) K Mason Crosby (calf)

Vikings Trends

• The Vikings are 4-1 toward unders in their last five road games.
• Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.
• Alexander Mattison flopped in his chance to be the team’s workhorse back in Week 6 with Dalvin Cook (groin) out of the lineup. Cook is expected to be ready to play in Week 8, and he should step right back into his bell-cow role after Mattison disappointed against the Falcons. Cook scored two touchdowns and had 50 rushing TDs against the Packers in Week 1 while Mattison 80 scrimmage yards.
• Kirk Cousins has thrown for multiple TDs in three of his last four games and he has 249+ yards in each of those games. Cousins posted 22.76 FP against the Packers back in Week 1 as he threw for 259/2 passing and he should be chasing points again as 6.5-point road underdogs.
• Adam Thielen has posted 12+ FP in four straight games thanks to touchdowns in each of those games (5 total). He posted 31 PF against the Packers back in Week 1 when he posted 6/110/2 receiving with a two-point conversion mixed in. Thielen hung 4/66/1 receiving on Jaire Alexander in that contest, who has been excellent since then.
• Justin Jefferson will also see some of Alexander this week after opening the season as more of a slot receiver. Jefferson posted just 2/26 receiving in his professional debut against the Packers. The rookie has 100+ receiving yards in three games and fewer than 45 yards in his other three games.
• Irv Smith is trending toward a second-half breakout after consecutive games with 55+ receiving yards and four catches in each contest before their bye. He also just played 79% of the snaps and he ran a route on 76% of Cousins’ dropbacks in their last game against the Falcons. The Texans didn’t target their TEs last week but Rob Gronkowski had 5/78/1 receiving against them in Week 6.

Packers Trends

• The Packers are not allowing fans this week.
• The Packers have the second-highest implied team total of the week.
• Green Bay beat Minnesota 43-34 in the season opener as one-point road underdogs.
• The Packers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.
• The Packers, the Steelers, and the Chargers are the last teams with just one ATS loss.
• Green Bay is riding a four-game ATS winning streak at home.
• Aaron Rodgers has thrown for multiple TDs in five of his six games, including his 364/4 passing performance against the Vikings back in the season opener. He’s thrown for four TDs in half his games, and he’s averaged 8.0 YPA or better in five of his six games.
• Davante Adams has seen 10+ targets in 14 of his last 15 full games (postseason included), including last week when he saw 16 targets and posted 13/196/2 receiving. He hung 14/156/2 receiving on 17 targets in this matchup back in Week 1.
• Robert Tonyan has seen just nine targets (7% share) in his four games with Adams after seeing 11 targets (18% share) in his two games without Adams. He has been dealing with an ankle injury the last two weeks but Marcedes Lewis has also been back stealing snaps and routes. The Vikings allowed 4/57/1 receiving to Hayden Hurst the last time out.
• Aaron Jones (calf) could miss another week and Jamaal Williams would be the next guy up again after he had 89% of the snaps and posted 23/114/1 scrimmage last week. Jones and Williams combined for 118/1 scrimmage against the Vikings in the season opener.

Brolley’s Bets

Green Bay Packers -5.5 (Best Bet)

New York Jets (0-7, 1-6 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-1, 5-2), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Jets 14.75, Chiefs 34.25
• Spread/Total Movements: 21 to 19.5, 48 to 49
• Weather: 48 degrees, clear, 10 mph
• Jets Injuries to Watch: WR Jamison Crowder (groin), WR Breshad Perriman (concussion), K Sam Ficken (groin), LB Jordan Jenkins (ribs), S Bradley McDougald (shoulder), LG Alex Lewis (shoulder)
• Chiefs Injuries to Watch: WR Sammy Watkins (hamstring), RT Mitchell Schwartz (back)

Jets Trends

• The Jets have the lowest implied team total of the week.
• The Jets remain the only winless team but they did cover for the first time last week.
• New York is 4-1 toward unders in its last five games
• With OC Dowell Loggains taking over play-calling duties, La’Mical Perine saw 70.2% of the snaps and 13 touches last week while Frank Gore played on 28.1% of the snaps with 11 touches. Gore still out-gained him 60 to 55 but Perine got the one goal-line carry, which he converted for his first TD. The Chiefs are allowing 4.8 YPC but the Jets will be forced to throw as they enter as 19-point road underdogs.
• Sam Darnold threw for 120 yards and two INTs in his return off of his throwing shoulder injury. He’s now thrown for three TDs and five INTs in his first five games of the season.
• Denzel Mims saw a 32% target share in his first game and he ran a route on 79% of Darnold’s dropbacks with Jamison Crowder (groin) out of the lineup and with Breshad Perriman (concussion) leaving early. The Chiefs limited Tim Patrick to 3/44 receiving last week.
• We’ll see if Crowder plays with his groin injury and with the trade deadline approaching next week. He’s caught 7+ passes in every game this season and he has 100+ yards in three of his four games.

Chiefs Trends

• The Chiefs are allowing fans at nearly 22% capacity.
• The Chiefs have the highest implied team total of the week.
• The Chiefs opened as 21-point favorites over New York, which makes them the eighth-biggest favorite of all time.
• The Chiefs have the league’s second-best point differential at +75.
• Kansas City is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 home games.
• The Chiefs scored 43 points while running just 51 plays and netting just 286 yards against the Broncos last week.
• Kansas City’s defense held its last two opponents (Bills and Broncos) to just 33 points combined.
• It’s tough to draw any conclusions about this Chiefs’ offense from their Week 7 performance, especially with this revamped backfield that now features Le’Veon Bell in addition to Clyde Edwards-Helaire. CEH led the backfield with 8/46/1 rushing and 1/17 receiving on four targets while playing 53% of snaps — he did drop a difficult catch for a would-be second touchdown. Meanwhile, Bell saw a healthy 33% snap share which he turned into 6/39 rushing without a target against the Broncos. CEH also owned a slight edge in routes run (13 to 11) over Bell. The Jets are allowing 105.0 rushing yards per game to RBs this season and the Chiefs should be able to name their score in this one so both backs should be active. Le’Veon will probably be begging Andy Reid for a chance to punch one in against his old team.
• Patrick Mahomes attempted just 23 passes for 200 yards and one touchdown in their blowout victory over the Broncos, which snapped his six-game streak with 20+ FP to start the season. Mahomes needs to get his production in early this week or he could risk another dud since the Jets aren’t going to put up much of a fight in this one. New York has allowed fewer than 250 passing yards in four of their last six games.
• Travis Kelce managed just 3/31 receiving last week. It was his worst statline in a non-Week 17 game since he had just a six-yard catch in the season opener of 2018. The Jets just allowed 4/64 receiving to Tyler Kroft and they’ve allowed five TDs to TEs in seven games.
• Tyreek Hill saw a 43% target share last week and he turned his 10 targets into 6/55/1 receiving against the Broncos in sloppy conditions. Stefon Diggs posted 6/48 receiving on 11 targets against the Jets last week but Mahomes is unlikely to throw it 43 times like Josh Allen had to last week.
• The Chiefs won’t be in a rush to bring Sammy Watkins (hamstring) back this week in a game they should easily win. Demarcus Robinson ran more routes than Mecole Hardman (21 to 11) again last week, but Robinson managed just four yards on his only target while Hardman had 70 scrimmage yards.

Brolley’s Bets

Kansas City Chiefs -19.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Le’Veon Bell (KC) over 49.5 rushing and receiving yards (Best Bet)

Los Angeles Rams (5-2, 4-3 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (3-3, 4-2), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Rams 24.75, Dolphins 21.25
• Spread/Total Movements: 4 to 3.5, 47 to 46
• Weather: 83 degrees, 30% chance of rain, 10 mph
• Rams Injuries to Watch: TE Tyler Higbee (hand), S Terrell Burgess (ankle, IR),
• Dolphins Injuries to Watch: WR DeVante Parker (groin), LB Kyle Van Noy (foot), TE Adam Shaheen (shoulder), WR Jakeem Grant (illness)

Rams Trends

• The Rams have played under the total in four straight games.
• Los Angeles has allowed just 33 points in the second half in seven games this season.
• The Rams officially have a two-man backfield with Cam Akers playing just four snaps the last two weeks. Darrell Henderson has seen 72 snaps in that span while Malcolm Brown has 57. Henderson has posted 14+ carries in three straight games and in four of his last five games, and he’s averaging 4.7 YPC this season. Brown has converted 3-of-5 goal-line carries for touchdowns this season. The Dolphins are allowing 145.7 scrimmage yards per game to RBs with seven TDs in six games.
• Jared Goff averaged 8.9 YPA or better in each of his first three games but he’s now topped out at just 6.6 YPA with fewer than 220 passing yards in three of his last four games. He has still thrown for multiple TD passes in five of his last six games. The Dolphins are giving up the 10th-fewest FPG to QBs this season, but they’ve only been tested by Russell Wilson (360/2 passing) and Josh Allen (415/4).
• Robert Woods has finished with fewer than 40 receiving yards in four of his last six games. He at least has 10+ rushing yards in five of his seven games with four total TDs. He’ll see more Byron Jones and Xavien Howard on the perimeter this week, but Woods is running half of his routes out of the slot so far.
• Cooper Kupp has reached 11+ FP and he’s seen 6+ targets in five of his last six games. He’ll hang mostly in the slot this week and Jamison Crowder posted 7/48 receiving on 13 targets against the Dolphins in Week 13.
• Tyler Higbee (hand) surprisingly missed last week, which helped Gerald Everett to 4/28/1 receiving on five targets against the Bears — Johnny Mundt also had 3/47 receiving. The Dolphins (or Jimmy G) limited George Kittle to 4/44 receiving in Week 5 in the only tough matchup Miami has faced at tight end.

Dolphins Trends

• The Dolphins are allowing fans at nearly 20% capacity this week.
• Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.
• The Dolphins are covering spreads by the widest margin at 10.9 points per cover.
• Miami is 5-2 toward overs in its last seven home games.
• The Dolphins made the switch from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Tua Tagovailoa over their bye week. Tua completed 69.3% of his passes while averaging 10.9 YPA and holding a 7.09 TD-to-INT ratio (87 to 11) as a 24-game starter at Alabama before his serious hip injury in mid-November last year. He gets a brutal first matchup against a Rams defense that just sacked Nick Foles four times and picked him off twice.
• DeVante Parker is one of the league’s better slant route runners, which could make him a good match with Tua since he loves to get the ball out quickly. OC Chan Gailey also figures to incorporate more RPOs for Tua. Parker needed a week off after battling ankle and groin injuries in the first two months of the season. Parker has a brutal matchup with Jalen Ramsey this week. Allen Robinson posted 4/70 receiving in this matchup last week.
• Preston Williams topped two catches just once in his first six games with Fitz so a change could be big for him. He scored in three of his last four games and he led the Dolphins with 10 red-zone targets with Fitz.
• Mike Gesicki failed to catch either of his two targets against the Jets in Week 6 while playing 66% of the snaps. It was made even more painful watching Adam Shaheen (3/51/1 receiving) and Durham Smythe score touchdowns. Gesicki has four games with 30 or fewer receiving yards and three games with 15 or fewer yards, which surround his two blow-up games for 90+ yards and 5+ catches.
• Gesicki has been working with Tua on the scout team this year, which could give him a leg up for targets in the early going. It’s also notable that Shaheen’s role could be growing after the Dolphins handed him a two-year extension with $3.2 million guaranteed during their bye week.
• Myles Gaskin posted 18/91 rushing and he caught all four of his targets for 35 yards while playing on 70% of the snaps in Miami’s shutout victory over the Jets in Week 6. Gaskin now has 14+ FP in four of his last five games, including 16+ FP in each of his last two games since becoming a bell-cow option with Jordan Howard out of the lineup. Gaskin had 4+ catches in five of his six games, which will be tested now that Tua will quarterback this offense going forward. The Rams have allowed 6.0/46.6/.1 receiving per game to RBs this season.

Brolley’s Bets

Miami Dolphins +3.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Malcolm Brown (LAR) over 27.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

Late Afternoon Games

Los Angeles Chargers (2-4, 5-1 ATS) at Denver Broncos (2-4, 4-2), 4:05 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Chargers 23.75, Broncos 20.75
• Spread/Total Movements: 1 to 3, 45.5 to 44.5
• Weather: 58 degrees, clear, light winds
• Chargers Injuries to Watch: TE Virgil Green (ankle, IR), RG Trai Turner ( OG Ryan Groy (COVID-19 list), RT Bryan Bulaga (back), DE Melvin Ingram (knee), S Rayshawn Jenkins (hamstring)
• Broncos Injuries to Watch: NT Mike Purcell (foot, IR), RB Phillip Lindsay (concussion), WR Tim Patrick (hamstring), WR Diontae Spencer (shoulder), OLB Jeremiah Attaochu (quad)

Chargers Trends

• The Chargers, the Packers, and the Steelers are the last teams with just one ATS loss.
• Los Angeles is 4-0-1 in its last five road games.
• The Chargers are 6-1 toward overs in their last seven road games.
• Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray are the only active QBs averaging more than Justin Herbert’s 26.2 FPG. Herbert posted 347/3 passing and 66/1 rushing and against a miserable Jaguars defense. He’s now third in the league in YPA (8.4) and he’s thrown 10 TDs to one INT. The Broncos have allowed between 18-23 FP to opposing QBs in their first six games — Mahomes and Henne combined for 18.3 FP in last week’s blowout.
• Keenan Allen has seen 31% of his team’s targets this season. Keenan is averaging 13.2 targets per game with 7+ catches and 60+ yards in four full games with Herbert. Allen has been the WR7 since Herbert took over in Week 2 with 19.1 FPG.
• Hunter Henry’s receiving yards have tailed off every week that’s he played with Herbert with Keenan hogging targets and Donald Parham and Virgil Green also stealing looks — Green did go down with an ankle injury last week. Henry has still seen 7+ in five of six games. He managed 2/10 receiving in his only matchup with the Broncos last season in Week 13.
• Mike Williams has been an afterthought with Allen bogarting targets. Williams has seen just eight targets in three games with Herbert where Allen has played the entire game, including just a four-yard catch on three targets last week.
• With Anthony Lynn using the hot-hand approach at running back, Joshua Kelley led Justin Jackson in snaps (38 to 31), carries (12 to 5), and targets (6 to 5) last week after Jackson led the backfield in their first game without Austin Ekeler. The Broncos lost their run-stuffing NT Mike Purcell (foot, IR) this week so this matchup is looking a little easier, but the Broncos have allowed just two RBs touchdowns this season.

Broncos Trends

• The Denver Broncos are allowing up to 5,700 fans.
• These teams have played under the total in four of their last five meetings.
• Drew Lock hasn’t thrown for multiple TDs in seven straight games dating back to last season, and he threw for more than 250 yards last week for the first time since Week 14 last season. He completed 18/28 passes for 134 yards, two TDs, and one INT against the Chargers last season.
• Jerry Jeudy has caught exactly two passes in three straight games after seeing his fewest targets in a game (4) even with Lock throwing it 40 times against the Chiefs in Week 7. His 10% target share is even more disappointing since he ran a route on 81.8% of Lock’s dropbacks against the Chiefs. Jeudy has now failed to reach double-digit FP since his Week 4 performance against the Jets. Another rookie Laviska Shenault posted 3/44 receiving out of the slot against the Chargers last week.
• Tim Patrick suffered a hamstring injury last week so K.J. Hamler will be needed for a struggling Lock. He finished with 2/24 receiving on three targets last week, and the Chargers just held Keelan Cole a 12-yard catch on two targets last week.
• Noah Fant and Albert O each saw seven targets last week but five of Fant’s targets came in the first half when the game was still competitive while five of Albert O’s targets came in the second half when the Broncos were looking to preserve Fant, who was hobbled by an ankle injury. Fant held the advantage in snap share (70% to 40%) and in routes run (26 to 18). The Chargers had allowed three TDs in two games before they faced the Jaguars out of their Week 6 bye.
• Phillip Lindsay was spearheading the offense last week with 9/71 rushing before he suffered a concussion toward the end of the first half. Melvin Gordon struggled throughout Week 7 as he lost a fumble in the first quarter before losing another fumble when he butchered a flea-flicker with Lock. Gordon punched in a three-yard touchdown late in their blowout loss, but Lindsay still out-rushed him (79 to 68) despite seeing eight fewer carries (9 to 17). The Chargers have allowed 115+ scrimmage yards to an opposing RB in three straight games (J-Rob/Kamara/RoJo).

Brolley’s Bets

Los Angeles Chargers -1 (Best Bet)

Keenan Allen (LAC) over 68.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Justin Herbert (LAC) over 252.5 passing yards (Best Bet)

New Orleans Saints (4-2, 2-4 ATS) at Chicago Bears (5-2, 4-3), 4:25 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Saints 24, Bears 19.5
• Spread/Total Movements: 4 to 4.5, 45.5 to 43.5
• Weather: 39 degrees, clear, 25 mph
• Saints Injuries to Watch: WR Michael Thomas (hamstring), WR Emmanuel Sanders (COVID-19 list), WR Marquez Callaway (ankle), LT Terron Armstead (elbow), RG Nick Easton (concussion)
• Bears Injuries to Watch: WR Allen Robinson (concussion), LB Khalil Mack (ankle), S Eddie Jackson (knee), WR COrdarrelle Patterson (quad), C Cody Whitehair (calf)

Saints Trends

• The Saints have played over the total in every game this season by a margin of 9.2 points per game.
• New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last five games.
• Alvin Kamara has finished as a top-12 RB every week and he’s averaging 15.7 FPG as a receiver, which would make him a top-12 fantasy WR. Dion Lewis is the only RB to reach 25+ receiving yards against the Bears this season but Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson combined for 25/120/1 rushing last week.
• Drew Brees is heating up by averaging 8.0+ YPA with multiple TD passes in three of his last four games, including last week when he posted 287/2 passing against the Panthers. He now gets the toughest matchup for opposing QBs so far after the Bears limited Jared Goff to 220/2 passing for 16.9 FP, which was the first time Chicago allowed multiple TD passes in a game.
• Michael Thomas (hamstring) hasn’t taken the field since he suffered his high-ankle injury in the season opener. He was set to play in Week 5 before he faced team discipline for getting into a fight with Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. There’s a chance Thomas is having bigger issues with Sean Payton and the organization behind closed doors. It also looks like Emmanuel Sanders will miss another game on the COVID-19 list.
• Brees spread the rock around to Marquez Callaway (8/75 receiving), Deonte Harris (4/46/1), and Tre’Quan Smith (4/54) last week. Smith is the most reliable option with exactly four catches in three of his last four games and after running a route on every dropback last week (Callaway ran a route on 95% of the dropbacks). The Bears have allowed a league-low two TDs to WRs this season.
• Just like last season, Jared Cook has been primarily used as a red-zone threat even with Thomas out of the lineup since Week 1. Cook actually saw a season-high seven targets with Thomas in the lineup in Week 1 as he’s seen just 15 targets in his last four games. Fortunately, he’s scored in three of those contests. The Bears have allowed more TDs to TEs (4) than they have to WRs (2) this season.

Bears Trends

• The Bears are not currently allowing spectators.
• The Bears are sitting at 5-2 even after their loss to the Rams, but their point differential is now -2.
• Nick Foles hasn’t reached 18+ FP in any of his starts this season after throwing for 261 yards with two INTs against the Rams last week. The Saints are allowing third-most FPG to QBs this season (28.9). Teddy Bridgewater was the first QB that failed to reach 22+ FP against New Orleans last week.
• Foles could have his back up against the wall if Allen Robinson (concussion) is unable to suit up. A-Rob has been limited to 9/123 receiving over his last two games.
• Darnell Mooney and Anthony Miller could be the main wideouts this week. Mooney has been the primary shot-play guy with an aDOT of 15.3 yards since Foles entered the lineup in Week 3. He has just a 48% catch rate with 15/162/0 receiving with Foles pulling the trigger. The Saints have at least allowed the second-most 40+ yard receptions this season. Miller hasn’t hit 30+ receiving yards since Foles became the starter in Week 4.
• Jimmy Graham has now posted 33+ yards and 5+ targets in each of Foles’ five games played this season. The Saints are still giving up the second-most FPG to TEs this season even after facing Ian Thomas and the Panthers last week. New Orleans has allowed six TDs in six games this season, and they’re allowing the fifth-most receiving yards per game to the position (63.0).
• David Montgomery is averaging 18.7 opportunities per game but he ranks as the RB27 through seven weeks with 13.2 FPG. Montgomery is averaging an ugly 3.1 YPC in his last five games after averaging 5.0 YPC in the first two weeks of the season. He gets another tough matchup this week against a Saints defense that’s allowing 3.5 YPC to RBs and just 30.2 receiving yards per game to backs.

Brolley’s Bets

Chicago Bears +4.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Allen Robinson (Chi) over 4.5 receptions (Best Bet)

San Francisco 49ers (4-3, 4-3 ATS) at Seattle Seahawks (5-1, 4-2), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: 49ers 25.5, Seahawks 28.5
• Spread/Total Movements: 3.5 to 3
• Weather: 54 degrees, clear, light winds
• 49ers Injuries to Watch: WR Deebo Samuel (hamstring), WR Jeff Wilson (ankle, IR), DB Jimmie Ward (quad), S Jaquiski Tartt (groin), WR Richie James (ankle)
• Seahawks Injuries to Watch: RB Chris Carson (foot), RB Carlos Hyde (hamstring), S Jamal Adams (groin), RB Travis Homer (knee), LG Mike Iupati (back), CB Shaquill Griffin (concussion), DE Benson Mayowa (ankle)

49ers Trends

• The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
• Kyle Shanahan has seemingly been hiding Jimmy G since his Week 5 debacle against the Dolphins as he’s “thrown” a ton of passes behind the line of scrimmage in the last two weeks. The depth of his passes now sits ahead of only Drew Brees at 6.2 yards after his aDOT sat at 4.4 yards against the Rams in Week 6 and at 5.7 yards against the Patriots in Week 7. Shanahan was able to hide Garoppolo in blowout victories the last two weeks, but he’s going to have to open it up a bit more against the Seahawks this week as three-point road underdogs. The good news is that Seattle will lift up his production this week as they’re allowing the second-most FPG to QBs this season (28.1).
• Jimmy G won’t have Deebo Samuel (hamstring) at his disposal this week so it will be rookie Brandon Aiyuk leading this WR corps this week. Aiyuk posted career-best numbers with Deebo leaving early last week as he finished with 6/115 receiving on seven targets on a 28% target share. The Seahawks are giving up a whopping 61.6 FPG to WRs this season, which also opens the door for Kendrick Bourne and others with Samuel out.
• Bourne saw 5+ targets in each of his first four games before Deebo returned to the lineup and took on a bigger role. Bourne won’t be a sexy option this week, but he has a chance to reach double-digit FP for the fourth time this week in a juicy matchup against the Seahawks.
• George Kittle will also get a boost with Deebo out of the lineup. Kittle has seen 7+ targets and 4+ catches in four straight games with a pair of 100+ yard games with TDs in the mix. The Seahawks have been gashed so badly by WRs that TEs are averaging the third-fewest FPG against Seattle (7.9). Also, keep an eye on Jamal Adams (groin) availability this weekend.
• The 49ers are down to JaMycal Hasty, Jerick McKinnon, and Tevin Coleman at running back this week. McKinnon has played on less than 32% of the snaps in each of the last three games with just 14 touches for 37 yards in that time. HC Kyle Shanahan said he was resting McKinnon last week when he finished with negative FP.
• Hasty has impressed on his limited opportunities the last two weeks, turning 19 touches into 110 scrimmage yards. Coleman is a complete wild card in the bunch since he could be active for the first time since Week 2 because of a knee injury. Hasty has the most upside in the group this week since he’s looked good the last two weeks, but Shanahan has shown us recently he’ll do whatever he wants with his backfield, regardless of recent performances. The Seahawks allowed Chase Edmonds and Kenyan Drake to combined 180 scrimmage yards on 19 carries and eight catches last week.

Seahawks Trends

• The Seahawks are not currently allowing fans.
• These teams are 3-0-1 toward overs in their last four meetings.
• Seattle is 4-2 toward overs this season.
• The Seahawks have dropped two straight games ATS after opening the season with four straight covers.
• Russell Wilson has recorded 31+ FP in four of his six games this season and he’s thrown for 3+ TDs in five of his six games. Ryan Fitzpatrick is the only QB to throw for 200+ yards and 2+ TDs in a game this season.
• Tyler Lockett went ballistic last week with 15/200/3 receiving on 20 targets against the Cardinals for a week-winning 53 FP. He had just 6/83 receiving on nine targets in his previous two games. Cooper Kupp posted 3/11 receiving on nine targets against San Francisco two weeks ago but Seattle’s passing attack is at a whole other level right now. Lockett posted 6/51/1 receiving in the season finale against the 49ers last season.
• D.K. Metcalf got wiped out by Patrick Peterson last week as he finished with just 2/23 receiving on five targets while Lockett exploded. Metcalf did have a long TD taken off the board because of a holding call in overtime. Metcalf posted 12/151/1 receiving in two games against the 49ers last season.
• Greg Olsen has just 3/38 receiving on four targets in his last two games. The 49ers and the Colts are the only two teams that have yet to allow a touchdown to a TE this season.
• Chris Carson (foot) is expected to miss this week, which will likely leave the lead runner duties to Carlos Hyde, who is dealing with his minor hamstring issue. Hyde saw 12 carries after Carson went down while the rest of the backfield saw just three carries. Travis Homer (knee) will also likely miss this week, leaving rookie DeeJay Dallas as the healthiest back to spell Hyde in passing situations and as a change-of-pace option. Hyde and Dallas are attached to the highest-scoring offense in the league (33.8), but the 49ers are allowing the second-fewest FPG to RBs (17.0).

Brolley’s Bets

Seattle Seahawks -2.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Brandon Aiyuk (SF) over 4.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Sunday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys (2-5, 0-7 ATS) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-4-1, 2-5),8:20 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Cowboys 17, Eagles 26
• Spread/Total Movements: 7.5 to 9, 43.5 to 43
• Weather: 47 degrees, clear, 15 mph
• Cowboys Injuries to Watch: QB Andy Dalton (concussion)
• Eagles Injuries to Watch: RB Miles Sanders (knee), WR Alshon Jeffery (foot), WR DeSean Jackson (ankle, IR), LB Nathan Gerry (ankle), DT Malik Jackson (quad), RT Lane Johnson (knee), DE Vinny Curry (illness), CB Cre’Von LeBlanc (quad)

Cowboys Trends

• The Cowboys are the only team that’s yet to cover a spread this season.
• Dallas is one ATS loss away from the worst start to a season in the last 20 years since the Raiders started 0-8 ATS back in 2003 with Rich Gannon and Bill Callahan.
• The Cowboys now have the league’s second-worst point differential at -67 even with two victories.
• Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five games in this series.
• The Cowboys went from averaging 6.6 yards per play with Dak Prescott to 3.5 yards per play in their first two games without him. It’s looking like seventh-round pick Ben DiNucci will get the start this week with Andy Dalton in concussion protocol. DiNucci didn’t have a preseason to get some game reps at the NFL level. He stepped into the lineup for the final three drives against Washington last week and he completed 2/3 passes for 39 yards while being sacked three times behind Dallas’ suddenly terrible O-line. Philly’s D-line will look to harass DiNucci like Washington’s front four did last week. The Eagles have given up 21+ FP to QBs the last three weeks, which included Daniel Jones’ best performance of the year in Week 7.
• Amari Cooper will not only have to deal with a small-school QB making his first NFL start, but he’ll also have to contend with top CB Darius Slay. Coop posted 3/38 receiving on eight targets against Slay and the Lions last year.
• CeeDee Lamb left Week 7 without a catch on five targets last week after recording 5+ catches and 59+ yards in each of his first six games. Golden Tate made his two targets count last week as he caught a 39-yard touchdown against the Eagles.
• Michael Gallup’s season from hell sank to new lows last week with his catchless performance against the Football Team. He’s reached double-digit FP just twice this season and he has three performances with fewer than 5 FP in his last five games.
• Dalton Schultz hasn’t reached 8 FP in each of his last three games after scoring more than 8+ FP in each of his first three games as the starter after Blake Jarwin’s ACL injury. Evan Engram (10.9 FP) and Nick Boyle (12.3) have reached double-digit FP against the Eagles in each of the last two weeks.
• Ezekiel Elliott averaged 4.8+ YPC in half of his games last season but he’s yet to do it once through seven weeks. Zeke has managed just 20.1 FP in his first two games without Dak in the lineup, a total he surpassed in four of his first five games. Elliott has a lot going against him with his O-line and QB situations in shambles and now he’ll have to deal with one of the toughest run outfits in the league as a major road underdog. The Eagles are allowing just 3.3 YPC and they’re also limiting opposing RBs to just 4.1 catches per game.

Eagles Trends

• The Eagles will allow 7,500 fans this week.
• The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
• Philly is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games.
• Carson Wentz posted his best performance of the season against the Giants as he completed 25/43 passes for 359 yards, two TDs, and one INT. He also added his fifth rushing TD in his last six games, which has really lifted his fantasy production in recent weeks. Wentz now has 28+ FP in consecutive games and 22+ FP in four of his last five contests.
• Wentz could also get Jalen Reagor (thumb) back this week to give him another weapon to attack this vulnerable Cowboys defense that’s allowed 15 TD passes in their last six games. Reagor will slide right into the lineup with DeSean Jackson (ankle, IR) out for the next two months. The explosive rookie WR had 5/96 receiving (19.2 YPR) in his first two games before fracturing his thumb. Terry McLaurin posted 7/90/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
• Reagor will give Travis Fulgham more competition for targets this week. Fulgham has seen at least a 26% target share in each of his last three weeks with 12+ FP in each of those games. The Cowboys allowed 2/73 receiving to DeAndre Hopkins in Week 6 and 8/129 to Darius Slayton in Week 5.
• Greg Ward has 4+ catches in three of his last four games but he hasn’t reached 45+ yards in that stretch. He does have TDs in three of his last five games and the Cowboys have allowed 13 TDs to WRs this season.
• Richard Rodgers came through as the TE6 in Week 7 by posting 6/85 receiving on eight targets to give him (14.5 FP) against the Giants last week. Dallas Goedert has a chance to return to the lineup this week, but it’s more likely that the Eagles give him two more weeks to recover from his ankle fracture with Philadelphia heading to their bye in Week 9. The Cowboys just allowed 4/60/1 receiving to Logan Thomas last week and four different TEs have posted 11+ FP against Dallas this season.
• Miles Sanders (knee) is headed toward another absence with the Eagles headed toward a bye in Week 9. Boston Scott led the backfield last week with 15/92/1 scrimmage, which included the game-winning score on an 18-yard wheel route. The Cowboys just gave up a season-best performance to Antonio Gibson last week who posted 20/128/1 rushing.

Brolley’s Bets

Philadelphia Eagles -8.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Ben DiNucci (Dal) over 13.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)