Each Monday morning during the season, I’ll preview three games with spreads that I think will move by the end of the week. This article is designed to help you get the best odds possible by helping you to decide if you should place a bet early in the week or if you should wait to wager until closer to kickoff based on potential line movements. I’ll include any early week leans and wagers that I make in my write-ups.
Week 8 Opening Lines
TNF
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-3)
Sunday
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-6)
Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) at Detroit Lions
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-7)
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-4)
Tennessee Titans (-4.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-3)
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (-20.5)
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Miami Dolphins
New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Chicago Bears
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
Los Angeles Chargers (-1) at Denver Broncos
Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) vs Dallas Cowboys
MNF
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10) at New York Giants
Byes
Arizona Cardinals, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Washington Football Team
Los Angeles Chargers (2-4, 5-1 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (2-4, 4-2)
Opening Line: Chargers -1
Recent Results: Justin Herbert continued his unexpected breakout rookie campaign by accounting for all four scores in Los Angeles 39-29 victory over Jacksonville as 7.5-point home favorites. He posted 347/3 passing and 66/1 rushing and against a miserable Jaguars defense that’s allowed 30+ points for the sixth straight game. The Broncos never had a chance against the Chiefs in a mistake-filled 43-16 loss as seven-point home underdogs. Melvin Gordon lost two fumbles and the Broncos gave up a kick return touchdown to Byron Pringle in the lopsided loss.
Injuries/Developments to Follow: The Chargers lost TE Virgil Green to an ankle injury in Week 7, but they otherwise escaped without any other major injuries to the Jaguars. The Chargers could get pieces of the right side of their O-line back this week after RT Bryan Bulaga (back) and RG Trai Turner sat out against Jacksonville. A number of key Broncos left their Week 7 loss early, including Phillip Lindsay (concussion), WR Tim Patrick (hamstring), and NT Mike Purcell (foot). Purcell was quickly ruled out in Week 7 and his absence this week could give this Chargers rushing attack a nice boost.
Potential Line Movement: These two AFC West squads have combined for just four wins through the first seven weeks of the season, but they’ve been ATS darlings for bettors with nine covers in 12 tries. Even with their strong ATS record, I still think the Chargers are being undervalued in the betting markets because the overall results are lacking. Since Herbert took over at quarterback, they’ve hung tough and lost by one score to three of the league’s best teams (KC, TB, NO) and they dropped a five-point decision to a solid Panthers team. The Broncos have a bit of a fraudulent 4-2 ATS with victories over hapless AFC East teams (NE, NYJ) to go along with a pair of lucky covers against the Titans and the Steelers to open the season. I already bet the Chargers -1 this week and I’m expecting this line to continue to climb to the three-point range later this week. I’m expecting to have the Chargers power rated as the better team by a field goal later this week so I wouldn’t be afraid to bet the Chargers up to -2.5. I would wait this line out if you’re looking to back the Broncos as you should be able to catch a field goal later this week.
Indianapolis Colts (4-2, 3-3 ATS) vs. Detroit Lions (3-3, 3-3)
- Opening Line: Colts -3.5
- Recent Results: The Colts had the week off after pulling out a comeback 31-27 victory over the Bengals as 7.5-point home favorites. Philip Rivers threw for 371 yards and three TDs to rally Indianapolis from a 14-point, first-quarter deficit against the Bengals. Speaking of rallies, the Lions were the latest team to pull a rabbit out of the hat against the Falcons as they pulled out a 23-22 win as one-point road underdogs. The Lions allowed Todd Gurley to score a touchdown in order to get the ball back with a minute to play with a six-point deficit. Matthew Stafford drove the Lions right down the field, and he capped off the game-winning drive with a touchdown pass to T.J. Hockenson with no time left on the clock before Matt Prater sealed the victory with the extra point.
- Injuries/Developments to Follow: The Colts should be back close to full strength coming off their bye week with LB Darius Leonard and TE Mo Alie-Cox potentially rejoining the lineup this week. I’ll also be looking to see if rookie WR Michael Pittman can return to the lineup this week after missing the last month with his calf injury. The Lions escaped Week 7 without any major injuries to report, and they’ll look to finally get CB Desmond Trufant back from his hamstring injury, which has limited him to two games this season.
- Potential Line Movement: The Colts are still getting a ton of respect in the betting markets despite failing to cover their last two games against the Browns and the Bengals. On the other side, the markets are rightfully still skeptical about the Lions despite their two-game ATS and outright winning streak — they’ve now covered three out of their last four games. I’m a bit lower on the Colts than most and I have them coming into Detroit as short favorites. I already bet the Lions +3.5 early in the week and I’d be willing to bet Detroit down to +3 point underdogs this week. I think the Colts will go off as short favorites in the 1-to-2 point range later this week so I’d hold off on any Indy wagers until closer to kickoff.
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-0, 5-1 ATS) vs. Baltimore Ravens (5-1, 3-3)
- Opening Line: Ravens -5.5
- Recent Results: The Steelers are the only remaining unbeaten team in the NFL after they went to Nashville and beat the Titans 27-24 as one-point road underdogs. The Seahawks then lost to Arizona on Sunday Night Football to leave the Steelers alone as the league’s last unbeaten team. Pittsburgh built a 20-point, third-quarter lead before holding on for dear life with Stephen Gostkowski missing a game-tying field goal from 45 yards out with just seconds left in the game. The Ravens had the past week off to get ready for the Steelers. They held onto a 30-28 win over the Eagles as 10-point road favorites the last time they took the field in Week 6.
- Injuries/Developments to Follow: Diontae Johnson returned to the lineup and he went back to dominating with 9/80/2 receiving against the Titans, but he did limp off the field late. He said after the game that he should be ready for Week 8. The Ravens defense got better over their bye week when they traded for Yannick Ngakoue. Wink Martindale has coordinated the blitz-happiest defense over the last season-plus, and the addition of Ngakoue will help the Ravens rush just their front four more in the future, which will free up more defenders on the back end to defend against the pass.
- Potential Line Movement: The Ravens will look to knock the Steelers from the ranks of the unbeaten this week, and the markets believe they’ll do it a little easier than I see it happening. I already bet the Steelers +5.5 early in the week because I don’t see the line holding this high later in the week. I’m expecting to have the Ravens power rated as -3 to -3.5 point favorites so I’d be willing to bet the Steelers down to +4 this week. The Ravens usually have lines move in their favor most weeks, but I think the markets opened Baltimore as too big of favorites so I’d wait to wager if I’m looking to back the Ravens this week.
Other lines I’ll be monitoring this week
I already wagered on the Raiders +3.5 on Sunday night but those +3.5s are no longer around on Monday morning when I wrote this article. I’ll likely be giving them out as a Best Bet if the line gets back up to +3.5 or better later this week. I’ll also be looking to bet the Panthers -2.5 or lower if the Falcons continue to see love in the betting markets.
