Each Monday morning during the season, I’ll preview three games with spreads that I think will move by the end of the week. This article is designed to help you get the best odds possible by helping you to decide if you should place a bet early in the week or if you should wait to wager until closer to kickoff based on potential line movements. I’ll include any early week leans and wagers that I make in my write-ups.
Week 4 Opening Lines
Lines courtesy of Westgate SuperBook on Sunday night.
Denver Broncos (-2.5) at New York Jets
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Chicago Bears
New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at Detroit Lions — This line has moved 3.5 at most books.
Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) at Carolina Panthers
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) — This line has moved to 3 at most books.
Cleveland Browns vs. Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Houston Texans (-4)
Seattle Seahawks (-7) at Miami Dolphins
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5) — This line has moved to 7 or 7.5 at most books.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tennessee Titans (-1.5)
Baltimore Ravens (-13.5) at Washington Football Team
New York Giants vs. Los Angeles Rams (-11)
New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-7)
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)
Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
New England Patriots (2-1, 2-1 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (2-0, 1-1)
Opening Line: Chiefs -7
Recent Results: Rex Burkhead scored three touchdowns and accounted for 98 scrimmage yards in New England’s 36-20 victory over the Raiders as 6.5-point home favorites. The Patriots finished with a season-best 250 rushing yards overall against the Raiders, which marks the second time they’ve topped 200+ rushing yards in three games. The Chiefs will be the last team to play in Week 3 against the Ravens, and they enter as 3.5-point road favorites in a matchup of the two best teams in the league.
Injuries/Developments to Follow: The Patriots made it through Week 3 relatively unscathed, and the O-line held up in their first game with C David Andrews (thumb) on the injured reserve. It’s unclear when James White (personal) will return to the team after his family tragedy, but the Patriots will likely get RB Damien Harris (finger) back in the fold this week. We’ll see how healthy the Chiefs are coming out of Monday Night Football. They entered with CB Charvarius Ward questionable with a broken hand.
Potential Line Movement: There’s a chance this line climbs a bit if the Chiefs come out and dominate the Ravens on Monday Night Football, but I think there’s a better chance the Chiefs get dominated by the Ravens as they enter as 3.5-point road underdogs. Either way, I think this line is maxed out at seven points right now and I believe this line will fall below a full touchdown by the end of the week. I’m not waiting for Monday night’s result as I bet the Patriots +7 points on Monday morning. Depending on tonight’s result, I’ll likely have this game power rated in the 5.5 to 6 point range this week so I think we’re getting some value getting the full touchdown with the Patriots right now.
Atlanta Falcons (0-3, 1-2 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (3-0, 3-0)
- Opening Line: Packers -6.5
- Recent Results: The Falcons have had more heartbreak in the last two weeks than most franchises face in a five-year span. A week after squandering a nine-point lead with two minutes left against the Cowboys, the Falcons blew a 16-point lead in the final seven minutes against the Bears as three-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Packers have played like one of the league’s best teams through the first three weeks of the season. They went to New Orleans and knocked off the Saints 37-30 as 3.5-point road underdogs. Aaron Rodgers now has nine touchdown passes with an interception, and he’s averaging 8.2 YPA, a mark he last maintained for a season back in 2014.
- Injuries/Developments to Follow: The big injuries to follow this week will come at the receiver position for both squads. Two of the league’s best receivers Julio Jones and Davante Adams both missed Week 3 contests because of hamstring injuries, and they’ll both be in a race to be ready for this week. The Falcons really need the WR help after Russell Gage left Week 3 with a heady injury and he never returned.
- Potential Line Movement: Unfortunately, most of the Packers -6.5s are gone as of Monday morning. It still might be worth your time to grab the Packers at -7 early in the week since I think this line has a chance to move into the 7.5 to 8 point range later this week. The Falcons aren’t going to find many backers this week after they squandered victories in the last two weeks to start 2020 with an 0-3 record. Meanwhile, the Packers’ bandwagon is going to be near full capacity after their 3-0 start, which included an impressive road victory over the Saints on national TV. You may as well wait until later this week to potentially get a +7.5 or a +8 if you’re brave enough to back the Falcons this week.
Indianapolis Colts (2-1, 2-1 ATS) vs. Chicago Bears (3-0, 2-1)
- Opening Line: Colts -2.5
- Recent Results: The Bears pulled the plug on Mitchell Trubisky in Week 3. Nick Foles came in and rallied the Bears from 16 points down in the final seven minutes to record a 30-26 victory over the Falcons as three-point road underdogs. The Colts dismantled their second straight opponent in Week 3. After starting the season with a loss to the Jaguars, Indy has won their last two games by a combined 46 points over the Jets and the Vikings.
- Injuries/Developments to Follow: Chicago is fully expected to stick with Foles as their starting QB after he led them back from a 16-point fourth-quarter deficit against the Falcons. The Bears backfield will be a little thinner for the rest of the season after Tarik Cohen reportedly tore his ACL in Week 3. Rookie WR Michael Pittman left Week 3 early with an ankle, which will stretch Indy’s already WR corps even thinner after the lost Parris Campbell (knee) last week.
- Potential Line Movement: This is another line on the move early Monday morning. If you like the Colts in this matchup, the time to grab a -2.5 is right now with some books already moving to the Colts -3. Meanwhile, Chicago backers should have no sense of urgency early in the week, and they should wait to grab a +3 when they become available. The Colts have righted the ship the last two weeks after their stunning upset loss to the Jaguars in the season opener while the Bears have reached 3-0 in less than spectacular fashion. I’ll likely be backing the Bears this week with Foles inserted as the starting QB since my power ratings are likely to make this game closer to a pick-em contest. I’ll likely wait it out to see if any +3.5s show up this week before wagering on the Bears.
