Week 16 Sunday Trends and Picks

December 25, 2020 4:00pm EST

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

Early Afternoon Games

Indianapolis Colts (10-4, 8-6 ATS) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3, 8-6), 1 p.m.

Implied Team Totals: Colts 23.25, Steelers 21.75
Spread/Total Movements: Steelers -3 to Colts -1.5, 45.5 to 44 to 45
Weather: 39 degrees, clear, 5 mph
Colts Injuries to Watch: TE Jack Doyle (quad), DT DeForest Buckner (ankle), WR Marcus Johnson (quad), LT Anthony Castonzo (knee/ankle)
Steelers Injuries to Watch: DE Stephon Tuitt (back), LB Marcus Allen (stinger), LB Ulysees Gilbert (ankle), LB Olasunkanmi Adeniyi (shoulder)

Colts Trends

The Colts failed to cover last week but they’ve still covered in four of their last six games with just one ugly performance mixed in there — a lopsided loss to the Titans in Week 12.
Indy has covered four straight road games.
Jonathan Taylor has scored four times in his last three games, and he’s averaging 21.1 touches and 127.3 scrimmage yards per game in his last four contests. He gets a step-up in competition this week but the Steelers just gave up 26 touches for 97/2 to Giovani Bernard with Pittsburgh unable to sustain offense.
Nyheim Hines is averaging just 9.0 touches for 53.7 scrimmage yards in his last three games since Taylor returned to the lineup. The Steelers are allowing league-lows in catches (3.3) and receiving yards (22.7) per game to RBs.
Philip Rivers has thrown for multiple TDs in five straight games, but he’s back to limited passing volume in his last two games with just 28 attempts in each of his last two games. The Steelers haven’t allowed a QB to reach 20+ FP against them this season.
T.Y. Hilton just fell short of his fifth touchdown in four games last week, but he still posted 70+ receiving yards and 4+ catches in his fourth consecutive game. Stefon Diggs posted 10/130/1 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago.
Zach Pascal came out of nowhere to post 5/79/2 receiving last week after posting a combined 3/61 receiving in his previous three games. Rookie Michael Pittman has failed to reach double-digit FP in four straight games as he’s seen five or fewer targets in four of his last five games.

Steelers Trends

The Steelers mustered just 40 total yards and no points in the first half against the Bengals, which set the stage for their 27-17 loss as 14.5-point road favorites.
Pittsburgh has dropped three consecutive games after an 11-0 start, and it’s on a four-game ATS losing streak.
The Steelers have failed to reach 20 points in four straight games, and they’re 5-1-1 toward unders in their last seven games.
Pittsburgh hasn’t covered a spread in seven straight December games.
Ben Roethlisberger is averaging just 5.3 YPA in his last five games with just 239.0 passing yards on 45.0 attempts per game. He has a combined 357/3 passing in the last two weeks on 75 attempts (5.0 YPA). The Colts defense has given up 310+ yards and 21+ FP in four of their last five games.
Diontae Johnson had one of his more promising efforts in recent weeks with 8/59/1 receiving on 13 targets, which give him double-digit targets in six of his last seven games. Brandin Cooks posted 6/59 receiving on seven targets in this matchup last week.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is averaging a pathetic 4.2 YPT in the last five games with 28/154/2 receiving on 37 targets. Slot WRs Keke Coutee (5/53/1 receiving) and Hunter Renfrow (5/38) each have five catches against Indy’s zone in the last two weeks.
Chase Claypool has fallen below four catches in three straight games with James Washington’s role growing, and the rookie has also failed to score in four straight games after becoming the first rookie WR to score 10+ TDs in his first 10 games. The Texans had three different WRs reach double-digit FP against them in both Week 13 and Week 15.
Eric Ebron suffered a back injury last week but he avoided a major injury on a Big Ben hospital ball. He failed to catch before exiting and he had just 2/30 receiving on five targets in Week 14. The Colts have allowed three different TEs (Akins/Waller/Moreau) to reach double-digit FP in the last two weeks.
James Conner has appeared in just one game since Week 11 with just 10/18 rushing without a catch against the Bills. Benny Snell posted 21/117/1 scrimmage against the Bengals as the only staple piece of their offense last week. The Colts are giving up just 78.5 rushing yards per game on 3.8 YPC to RBs this season.

Brolley’s Bets

**Indianapolis Colts +3 (Best Bet)

Jonathan Taylor (Ind) over 54.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

JuJu Smith-Schuster (Pit) under 55.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

**I posted this Best Bet on Monday morning before the Steelers laid an egg on Monday Night Football. I’ve been fading the Steelers for the past month and I’m comfortable betting the Colts laying less than a field goal.

New York Giants (5-9, 8-6 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (9-5, 8-6), 1 p.m.

Implied Team Totals: Giants 16.5, Ravens 27
Spread/Total Movements: 9.5 to 10.5, 45.5 to 43.5
Weather: 41 degrees, clear, 5-10 mph
Giants Injuries to Watch: QB Daniel Jones (hamstring/ankle), TE Evan Engram (calf), CB Darnay Holmes (knee), WR Golden Tate (calf)
Ravens Injuries to Watch: WR Marquise Brown (knee), CB Marcus Peters (calf), DB Jimmy Smith (ribs/shoulder), DE Calais Campbell (calf)

Giants Trends

The Giants have played under the total in six straight games.
They’ve failed to reach 20+ points in four straight games and 10+ points in back-to-back games.
New York is 11-3 toward unders this season, which includes a current six-game under streak.
The Giants’ offense has been doomed since Daniel Jones injured his hamstring against the Bengals in Week 12. They’ve scored a combined 30 points the last two weeks with Colt McCoy (Weeks 13 and 15) and an injured Jones (Week 14) leading the offense. Jones is expected to play this week, and he managed just 127 scoreless passing yards without a carry in his last start in Week 14 while playing with his injuries. Gardner Minshew posted 226/2 passing against the Ravens last week.
These Giants WRs have been players to avoid in the last three weeks. Darius Slayton is leading the group with 8/119 receiving on 18 targets in that span followed by Sterling Shepard (8/108 on 18) and Golden Tate (7/82 on 9). The Ravens didn’t allow a Jaguars WR to reach double-digit FP last week.
Evan Engram has been just as miserable as New York’s WRs with just 10/94 receiving on 19 targets in the last three weeks. Eric Ebron (7/54 receiving) was the last TE to reach double-digit FP against the Ravens in Week 12.
Wayne Gallman hasn’t scored a touchdown in three straight games after scoring six TDs in a five-game span in Weeks 7-12. The Giants could get Devonta Freeman back in the mix off of his ankle injury after he returned to practice last week so New York’s backfield rotation is up in the air a bit with Alfred Morris and Dion Lewis also in the mix. The Ravens have allowed eight different RBs to reach 12+ FP in their last six games.

Ravens Trends

The Ravens have three consecutive outright victories and four straight covers.
Baltimore has played over the total in four straight home games.
Lamar Jackson is showing flashes of his 2019 form in the last three weeks as he’s scored 10 total TDs and the offense is averaging 40.3 points per game in that span. Lamar fell below 50 rushing yards last week for the first time in seven games but he still reached the end zone to give him four rushing TDs in his last three games. Baker Mayfield became just the third QB to reach 20+ FP against the Giants. Kyler Murray (47 rushing yards) and Russell Wilson (45) each had some rushing success against them in Weeks 13-14.
J.K. Dobbins out-snapped (35 to 27) and out-carried (14 to 9) Gus Edwards last week with Mark Ingram a healthy scratch. Dobbins has 11+ carries, 53+ rushing yards, and a touchdown in four straight games. Edwards is averaging 8.7 touches and 77.3 scrimmage yards with two scores in his last three games. The Giants limited Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to 22/71/1 rushing and 5/23 receiving last week.
Marquise Brown is finally starting to hit his stride with 13+ FP in four straight games. His three-game TD streak came to an end last week but he had his best yardage game since Week 1 with 6/98 receiving.
Mark Andrews is looking like a top-flight TE with 5+ catches and 60+ receiving yards in four straight games that he’s appeared in — he missed Weeks 12-13 with COVID-19. Dan Arnold (2/27/1 receiving) and Austin Hooper (5/41/1) have each reached double-digit FP against the Giants in the last two weeks.

Brolley’s Bets

New York Giants +10.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Cincinnati Bengals (3-10-1, 8-6 ATS) at Houston Texans (4-10, 5-9), 1 p.m.

Implied Team Totals: Bengals 26.75, Texans 19.25
Spread/Total Movements: 9 to 7.5, 45 to 46
Weather: Dome
Bengals Injuries to Watch: WR Tyler Boyd (concussion), QB Brandon Allen (knee), CB Darius Phillips (knee), C B.J. Finney (abdomen)
Texans Injuries to Watch: Rb Duke Johnson (neck), CB Phillip Gaines (knee)

Bengals Trends

The Bengals snapped a four-game ATS losing streak with their surprising victory over the Steelers as 14.5-point home underdogs. The Bengals still averaged just 4.1 yards per play with just 230 total yards so they’re still far from being an offensive juggernaut.
Cincy is 4-1-1 toward unders in its last six games
Giovani Bernard posted 22.7 FP against the NFL’s toughest defense against fantasy RBs after recording a combined 34.3 FP in his last five games as the lead back. He still averaged 3.3 YPC last week and he’s averaging 3.1 YPC in his last six games, but he gets the second-friendliest RB matchup this week. The Texans are giving up 5.4 YPC and 180.9 scrimmage yards per game to RBs after Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines combined for 149/1 scrimmage last week.
Ryan Finley completed just 7/13 passes for 89 yards and a touchdown last week, but he ran 10 times for 49 yards and a touchdown. Finley now has 21/143/1 rushing in eight career appearances with four NFL starts. Brandon Allen (knee) is on track to return this week and the Bengals should go back to him. He’s completed 55/84 passes (65.5%) for 506 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions this year. Mitch Trubisky posted 267/3 passing and 4/23 rushing against the Texans two weeks ago.
Tyler Boyd suffered a concussion on Monday Night Football, leaving Tee Higgins and A.J. Green as the top options in this extremely limited passing attack. Higgins had five catches in each of his first three games without Joe Burrow before posting 3/31 receiving on six targets against the Steelers last week. He did at least see 46% of Finley’s passes (13) last week. Green has 8/102 receiving on 10 targets in the last two games after going catchless in his first two contests without Burrow. The Texans are giving up 39.7 FPG to WRs (10th-most) to give them some hope.

Texans Trends

The Texans are 5-1 toward unders in their last six games
David Johnson’s 11/106 receiving performance last week came out of nowhere as finished with a season-high 24.3 FP. His 133-yard performance was certainly aided by Duke Johnson’s absence from the lineup as DJ played on 80% of the snaps. The Bengals are giving up 4.9 YPC to RBs after Benny Snell and Pittsburgh’s broken rushing attack posted 18/84/1 rushing and 3/23 receiving.
Deshaun Watson bounced back last week after a down game against the Bears in Week 14 with 373/2 passing for 24.4 FP against the Colts. Watson has reached 315+ passing yards in four of his last five games but volume could be an issue this week. The Bengals have given up more than 230 passing yards just once in their last 10 games.
Brandin Cooks has been a relative disappointment since Will Fuller was suspended for the season. Cooks has scored 11 FP in each of his first two games without Fuller for a combined 11/124 receiving on 15 targets. The Bengals have been excellent against perimeter WRs with William Jackson and Darius Phillips allowing just 1.02 yards per coverage snap combined. Diontae Johnson did get them for 8/59/1 receiving last week.
Keke Coutee and Chad Hansen have reached double-digit FP in three straight games since Fuller was suspended for the season for PEDs. Coutee posted 5/53/1 receiving on seven targets against the Colts in Week 15 while Hansen added 2/55/1 on three targets. Coutee gets the easier matchup against Mackensie Alexander this week, but he just shut down JuJu Smith-Schuster (3/15 receiving) last week. Chase Claypool posted 3/54 receiving last week as the #2 perimeter WR in this matchup last week.
Jordan Akins finally delivered on his increased targets against the Colts as he posted 5/50 receiving on six targets. He’s seen six targets in each of his last two games and the Bengals are giving up 14.6 FP to TEs (6th-most).

Brolley’s Bets

Cincinnati Bengals +7.5 (Staff Pick Leans)

Chicago Bears (7-7, 7-7 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-13, 6-8), 1 p.m.

Implied Team Totals: Bears 27.25, Jaguars 19.75
Spread/Total Movements: 7 to 7.5, 46.5 to 47
Weather: 60 degrees, clear, 5-10 mph
Bears Injuries to Watch: WR Allen Robinson (hamstring), RB Cordarrelle Patterson (knee), CB Jaylon Johnson (shoulder), CB Buster Skrine (concussion), S Eddie Jackson (hip), OLB Khalil Mack (shoulder), DT Akiem Hicks (ankle)
Jaguars Injuries to Watch: RB James Robinson (ankle), WR Collin Johnson (hamstring), CB Sidney Jones (Achilles)

Bears Trends

Chicago dug itself a hole by losing six straight games after a 5-1 start to the season, but they’ve won and covered in back-to-back games.
Chicago has scored 30+ points in three straight games.
David Montgomery could dominate the work again after seeing 32 carries against the Vikings last week. He’s posted 24+ FP in four straight games as he’s averaging 142.8 scrimmage yards with six touchdowns in that span. J. K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards combined for 159/1 scrimmage against the Jaguars last week.
Mitchell Trubisky attempted just 21 passes in their victory in Week 15, which limited him to 202 yards (9.6 YPA) and one touchdown but he at least added 34 rushing yards. Trubisky, who is now 5-2 as a starter this season, will get the second-best fantasy matchup in the league against the Jaguars, who have allowed multiple passing TDs in eight straight games.
Allen Robinson heads back to Jacksonville for the first time, and he comes in with four straight games with 74+ yards since their Week 11 bye. A-Rob is averaging 6.8/88.8/.8 receiving on 9.5 targets per game in his last four contests. Dez Bryant and Miles Boykin each scored TDs against the Jaguars last week.
Darnell Mooney has touchdowns in consecutive games after posting 4/49/1 receiving on five targets against the Vikings in Week 15. Mooney is averaging 5.5 targets per game over his last four games. Marquise Brown posted 6/98 receiving in this matchup last week.
Cole Kmet is officially an every-down player after playing every snap against the Vikings last week. Unfortunately, it didn’t translate into fantasy production with Trubisky attempting just 21 passes. The rookie still ran a route on 76.9% of Mitch’s dropbacks (20 of 26), but he turned his two targets (9.5% share) into just 12 yards. Jacksonville is giving up the second-most TDs per game to TEs (.8) after Mark Andrews got them for 5/66/1 receiving last week.

Jaguars Trends

The Jaguars defense has given up 27+ points in five straight games and in 12 of their last 13 games since they beat the Colts in the season opener.
The Jaguars could be without their offensive MVP going forward after James Robinson left Week 15 early with an ankle injury. Robinson has been slowed in recent weeks because of a knee injury, and the organization could sit him this week with their sights set on the #1 overall pick and Trevor Lawrence after the Jets’ surprise Week 15 victory.
Devine Ozigbo could get lead-runner snaps if Robinson missed this week while Dare Ogunbowale would factor in as the change-of-pace/passing back. The Bears are giving up the eighth-fewest FPG to RBs (21.4) this season.
Gardner Minshew and Mike Glennon split first-team reps in practice this week so we could see a combination of both QBs this week. The Bears have given up 20+ FP to QBs in three out of their four games since their Week 11 bye with 10 passing TDs allowed in that span.
D.J. Chark led the Jaguars WRs with 4/53 receiving on 29 routes last week followed by Laviska Shenault (5/43, 25), Keelan Cole (2/22, 28), and Chris Conley (1/13/1, 16) with Collin Johnson (ankle) leaving after just one route last week. Chark has reached double-digit FP once since Week 6 while Shenault has 9+ in three straight games. The Bears are giving up just 32.3 FPG to WRs (4th-fewest).

Brolley’s Bets

Chicago Bears -7 (Best Bet)

Cleveland Browns (10-4, 6-8 ATS) at New York Jets (1-13, 5-9), 1 p.m.

Implied Team Totals: Browns 28.5, Jets 19
Spread/Total Movements: 10 to 9.5, 44.5 to 47.5
Weather: 39 degrees, clear, 5 mph
Browns Injuries to Watch: OG Wyatt Teller (calf), SS Ronnie Harrison (shoulder, IR), LT Jedrick Wills (COVID-19), RT Jack Conklin (knee) OT Chris Hubbard (knee, IR), C JC Tretter (knee), CB Denzel Ward (calf), LB Sione Takitaki (knee), DT Sheldon Richardson (neck)
Jets Injuries to Watch: DT Quinnen Williams (neck, IR)

Browns Trends

The Browns reached 10 victories for the first time since 2007, and they could clinch their first playoff berth since 2002 with a win and some help this week.
Cleveland owns a 10-4 record but they still have a -6 point differential, which is behind the 4-10 Atlanta Falcons at +2.
Baker Mayfield is averaging 308.0 passing yards per game with 10 TDs and one INT in his last four games, and he’s been the QB5 in that span with 25.5 FPG. He’s also attempted 32+ passes in three straight games after failing to reach that mark in six straight games in Weeks 6-11. Mayfield is a low-end QB1 going against a Jets secondary that’s allowing 288.3 passing yards (3rd-most) and 2.1 passing TDs (2nd-most) per game.
Jarvis Landry has 6+ catches and 11+ FP in four straight games during Baker’s hot streak with three TDs in that span. Cooper Kupp (5/39 receiving) and Tyler Lockett (5/52) disappointed a bit in this matchup in the last two weeks.
Rashard Higgins has emerged as the top perimeter WR for a scorching hot Baker. Higgins posted 4/76 receiving on five targets against the Giants in Week 15, which gives him 68+ yards and 11+ FP in three straight games. The Jets have given up 16+ FP to a perimeter WR in five straight games since their Week 10 bye with Robert Woods (6/56/1 receiving) being the latest to come through.
Austin Hooper has been a disappointment in his first season with the Browns, but he has a chance to end his 2020 on a high note after posting a season-high 15.1 FP last week with 5/41/1 receiving on six targets. He also ran routes on a promising 71.4% of Baker’s dropbacks (25 of 35) last week so he has the chance to keep his momentum going against a bad Jets defense. New York is giving up league-highs in receiving yards per game (66.1) and touchdowns (13) to tight ends after Tyler Higbee beat them for 4/67/1 receiving last week.
Cleveland’s rushing attack wasn’t nearly as good as we’ve seen without Wyatt Teller (calf) in the lineup last week and Kevin Stefanski classified Teller as a week-to-week before their showdown with the Giants. Nick Chubb had his worst rushing output with 50 yards since coming back from injury after Week 9, but he still found paydirt for the sixth time in his last six games. He also posted 3.5+ receiving FP for the fourth straight game after never reaching 2+ FP in his first six games this season. Despite facing numerous negative game scripts, the Jets haven’t allowed an individual RB to reach 80+ rushing yards since Myles Gaskin did it in Week 6.
Kareem Hunt hasn’t reached double-digit carries in consecutive games after doing it in each of his first 12 games. He managed a season-low 10 touches for just 28 yards against the Giants last week. The Jets are giving up the third-most receptions to RBs (6.0) but for just 6.1 YPR with just one TD this season.

Jets Trends

The Jets pulled off the biggest upset of the season with their stunning defeat of the Rams as 17.5-point underdogs.
The Jets are one of just five teams to win outright as underdogs of 17 or more points since 1978.
New York is 9-5 toward overs this season.
Frank Gore posted 23/59/1 rushing (2.6 YPC) with a six-yard catch on his only target in New York’s unlikely victory over the Rams in Week 16. Ty Johnson also found the end zone as he caught all six of his targets for 39/1 receiving and 5/18 rushing. Gore has just two TDs this season, but he’s scored double-digit FP in three of his last five games. The Browns are giving up 116.5 scrimmage yards per game to RBs (9th-fewest).
Sam Darnold reached 200+ passing yards for the first time since Week 4, but he still managed just 14.1 FP. Colt McCoy posted 221 scoreless passing yards in this matchup last week but the Browns are giving up the 21.1 FPG to QBs (7th-most) this season.
Jamison Crowder has 12+ FP in two out of his last three games, but he’s also finished with 31 or fewer receiving yards in four out of his last six games. Golden Tate had 2/13 receiving in this matchup last week
Denzel Mims failed to reach 40+ receiving yards for the first time in his seventh career game after spending a week away from the team for a personal matter. Sterling Shepard managed 4/51 receiving in this matchup last week.
Breshad Perriman hasn’t reached 30+ receiving yards in three straight games with just five total catches in that span. Darius Slayton posted 4/74 receiving in this matchup last week.

Brolley’s Bets

New York Jets +9.5 (Staff Pick Leans)

Chris Herndon (NYJ) over 10.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Rashard Higgins (Cle) over 3.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Atlanta Falcons (4-10, 6-8 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-1, 7-7), 1 p.m.

Implied Team Totals: Falcons 21.75, Chiefs 32.25
Spread/Total Movements: 11 to 10.5, 53 to 54
Weather: 47 degrees, clear, 10 mph
Falcons Injuries to Watch: WR Julio Jones (hamstring), CB Darqueze Dennard (quad), C Alex Mack (concussion), OG James Carpenter (groin)
Chiefs Injuries to Watch: WR Tyreek Hill (hamstring), RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle, out), LB Damien Wilson (knee), DE Frank Clark (illness)

Falcons Trends

The Falcons are 4-1 toward unders in their last five games.
Matt Ryan snapped out of a major funk with 356/3 passing for 27.8 FP against the Buccaneers last week after he failed to reach 15+ FP in four straight games. The Chiefs have allowed multiple passing TDs in six straight games with five of those QBs reaching 20+ FP.
Calvin Ridley has posted 16+ FP in each of his five full games without Julio Jones this season with 110+ receiving yards in four of those contests. Ridley has posted 14+ FP in five straight games since their Week 10 bye, which he entered a little banged up with ankle/foot issues. The Chiefs are giving up the second-fewest FPG to WRs (31.6). Emmanuel Sanders posted 4/76 receiving on five targets in this matchup last week.
Russell Gage has posted 12+ FP in four of his last five games after recording 5/68/1 receiving on 10 targets against the Buccaneers in Week 15. Gage is now averaging 8.4 targets per game over his last five contests. Lynn Bowden (7/82 receiving) and Chris Godwin (8/97) had big games out of the slot against the Chiefs in the last four weeks.
Hayden Hurst reached double-digit FP last week for the first time since Week 9 and he scored a touchdown for the first since Week 6. Hurst had finished with fewer than 2 FP in three out of four games in Weeks 11-14.
Todd Gurley has 23/60 rushing in his last four games while new lead back Ito Smith has 37/167/1 rushing in that same span. The Chiefs are giving up 143.8 scrimmage yards per game but just 10 TDs overall to RBs

Chiefs Trends

The Chiefs covered by half a point last week to snap a five-game ATS skid. They’ve won each of their last six games by one-score decisions.
Patrick Mahomes averaged fewer than 6.0 YPA last week for just the second time in 50 career games — the other came against the Chargers in Week 11 last year. He still posted 254/3 passing for 26.9 FP despite averaging 5.4 YPA against the Saints. Mahomes gets a much easier matchup against the Falcons after they allowed Tom Brady to rise from the dead last week with 390/2 passing.
Tyreek Hill is clearly playing through hamstring tightness in recent weeks. Hill still came through like he always does with 6/53/1 receiving on 10 targets in Week 15, which gives him 17 scores in 14 games this season. The Buccaneers had three WRs post 13+ FP against the Falcons last week, and Atlanta is giving up the second-most yards per game to WRs (205.2).
Sammy Watkins reached double-digit FP for the first time since coming back from injury with 4/60 receiving on six targets against the Saints. Seven different WRs have posted 13+ FP against the Falcons in the last three weeks.
Travis Kelce posted another 8+ catches last week, which gives him seven straight games to reach that mark — he’s reached 22+ FP in six of those seven games. The Falcons are giving up 15.4 FPG to TE (5th-most), which includes a combined 7/83 receiving to Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate last week
Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s rookie regular season is over after he suffered a high ankle sprain and a strained hip in Kansas City’s Week 15 victory over the Saints. CEH scored 11+ FP in each of his first six games this season, but he reached that mark in 4-of-8 games after Bell joined the Chiefs in Week 7. Bell had his best performance of the season against the Saints as he posted 16/76/1 scrimmage with CEH leaving early. Bell will be the lead runner in this offense to finish the regular season with Darrel Williams mixing in as a passing-down receiver. The Falcons are giving up just 68.8 rushing yards per game to RBs (2nd-fewest) but they have given up 5.9 catches per game (5th-most)

Brolley’s Bets

Atlanta Falcons +10.5 (Staff Pick Leans)

Calvin Ridley (Atl) over 81.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Carolina Panthers (4-10, 8-6 ATS) at Washington Football Team (6-8, 9-5), 1 p.m.

Implied Team Totals: Panthers 20.75, Washington 21.25
Spread/Total Movements: 2.5 to 1, 44.5 to 41.5
Weather: 43 degrees, clear, 5-10 mph
Panthers Injuries to Watch: RB Christian McCaffrey (thigh, doubtful), DE Brian Burns (knee), LT Russell Okung (calf), CB Troy Pride (hip)
Washington Injuries to Watch: WR Terry McLaurin (ankle, doubtful), QB Alex Smith (calf)

Panthers Trends

The Panthers have covered six straight games on the road.
Christian McCaffrey is set to miss another game with his thigh injury and it’s looking more and more likely that we’ve seen the last of him this season. Mike Davis mustered just 16/61 scrimmage last week and he played a season-low 54% of the snaps with CMC out of the lineup. Rodney Smith saw a 35% share with 7/47 scrimmage. Washington is giving up just 110.5 scrimmage yards and .8 TDs per game to RBs.
Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t thrown a TD pass in his last two games and he has just one TD pass in his last three games. He’s been supplementing his fantasy production with four rushing touchdowns in his last five games after posting 258 passing yards and 4/26/1 rushing against the Packers last week. The Football Team has held five straight QBs under 20+ FP, including Russell Wilson who posted 121/1 passing and 6/52 rushing last week.
D.J. Moore returned to the lineup last week and he posted 6/131 receiving. He’s become the team’s #1 WR in the last month as he has 95+ receiving yards and 19+ FP in three of his last four games. The Seahawks didn’t have a WR reach 45+ receiving yards last week.
Robby Anderson disappointed last week with 2/21 receiving on five targets against the Packers, which gives him two performances with 21 receiving yards in his last five games. The Football Team is giving up just 148.4 receiving yards per game to WRs (5th-most).
Curtis Samuel has seen double-digit opportunities in three of his last four games, but he turned his nine targets into 4/42 receiving last week and he added just 2/6 rushing. Samuel has still reached double-digit FP in seven of his last nine games. Tyler Lockett (4/34 receiving), Kendrick Bourne (3/42), and JuJu Smith-Schuster (7/28) have come up small out of the slot against the Football Team in the last three weeks.

Football Team Trends

The Football Team failed to win their fifth consecutive game, but they still grabbed their fifth straight cover even with Dwayne Haskins at quarterback.
The Football Team is 9-4-1 toward unders this season, including an 8-2 run toward in their last 10 contests and a 5-0 run in their last five home games.
Dwayne Haskins got first-team reps in practice early in the week even after his strip club debacle after Week 15, but Alex Smith will be the guy if he’s healthy enough to play through his calf injury. Smith has yet to throw for multiple TDs in a game this season while Haskins hasn’t done it since he threw two TDs and three INTs against the Browns in Week 3. The Panthers had been ripped for 280+ yards and 3+ TDs in four of five games in Weeks 9-14, but they limited a scorching hot Aaron Rodgers to 143/1 passing last week.
Terry McLaurin snapped out a funk with 7/77 receiving on 12 targets last week after posting just 4/38 receiving on 12 targets in Weeks 13-14. McLaurin hasn’t scored in his last six games and he has just three TDs overall. He’s been playing through an ankle injury and he’s doubtful to play this week, leaving Cam Sims and Steven Sims to pick up the slack at WR. Cam posted 5/26 receiving on eight targets last week. The Panthers limited Davante Adams to 7/42 receiving on 10 targets last week, and they’re giving up 13.6/157.1/1.1 receiving per game to WRs.
Logan Thomas is hitting his stride in the final weeks of the season with Antonio Gibson (toe) out of the lineup and with McLaurin hitting a bit of a rough patch. Thomas has reached double-digit FP in each of his last four games for 71.6 FP overall, which ranks behind only Travis Kelce (95.8 FP) and Darren Waller (94.2) at the position in that span. He got it done with Haskins last week, too, with 13/101 receiving on 15 targets so he can be trusted with both Alex Smith and Haskins this week. The Panthers have given up double-digit FP to a TE in nine straight games so fire up Thomas with some confidence this week.
Antonio Gibson is trying to return this week after he’s essentially missed the last three games with his toe injury. Gibson had eight TDs in a five-game span in Weeks 7-12 before suffering his injury early against the Steelers in Week 13. Peyton Barber stole a goal-line TD last week but J.D. McKissic otherwise handled 22-of-26 RB touches against the Seahawks, which he turned into 107/1 scrimmage. The Panthers are giving up 143.3 scrimmage yards per game to RBs, including 158/1 scrimmage to Aaron Jones last week.

Brolley’s Bets

Washington Football Team -1 (Staff Pick Leans)

D.J. Moore (Car) over 61.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Late Afternoon Games

Denver Broncos (5-9, 7-7 ATS) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-9, 8-6), 4:05 p.m.

Implied Team Totals: Broncos 23, Chargers 26
Spread/Total Movements: 50 to 49
Weather: Dome
Broncos Injuries to Watch: RB Phillip Lindsay (hip), OLB Bradley Chubb (ankle), CB Nate Hairston (toe),
Chargers Injuries to Watch: TE Hunter Henry (COVID-19, out), WR Keenan Allen (hamstring), WR Hunter Henry (illness), DE Joey Bosa (shin/concussion), DE Uchenna Nwosu (knee)

Broncos Trends

The Broncos got run out of their home stadium on national TV last week by a Bills squad that totaled 48 points and 534 yards while averaging 8.2 yards per play.
Denver beat LA 31-30 as three-point home underdogs in Week 8 in a game totaled at 44.5 points.
The Broncos are 5-2 ATS on the road this season.
Drew Lock went from averaging a career-high 10.4 YPA with four TD passes against the Panthers in Week 14 to averaging a measly 4.1 YPA for 132/1 passing against the Bills in Week 15. The Chargers have given up just five passing TDs over the last four weeks, but mobile QBs have crushed them in that span with Mariota/Cam/Allen combining for four rushing TDs.
Noah Fant reached 12+ FP last week for the first time since Week 2. He turned in 8/68/1 receiving on a season-high 11 targets (34% share). Fant turned in a previous season-best seven catches for 47 yards against the Chargers back in Week 8.
Tim Patrick has fallen below 45 receiving yards in four straight games and he failed to score a touchdown last week, which has kept his production afloat recently. The Chargers are middle of the pack with a touchdown allowed per game to WRs.
Jerry Jeudy hasn’t reached 11+ FP since he blew up for 125/1 receiving against the Falcons in Week 9, and he’s failed to reach 45+ receiving yards in five straight games. K.J. Hamler caught two long touchdowns against the Panthers in Week 13 but he’s failed to reach double-digit FP in his other five games since Week 9, as well. The Chargers are giving up a league-low 10.6 catches per game to WRs.
Melvin Gordon has seen between 11-15 carries in each of his last six games, and he’s been effective with a 5.5 YPC average for 77/421/4 rushing. Phillip Lindsay has been the lesser half of the duo in that same span with his 3.0 YPC average but he still has 65 carries. Gordon turned in just 8/26 rushing and 6/21 receiving against the Chargers in Week 8, and Los Angeles is giving up just .6 rushing TDs per game to RBs.

Chargers Trends

The Chargers have won consecutive one-score games and they have a pair of covers in the last two weeks after their six-game ATS losing streak in Weeks 8-13.
The Chargers snapped a three-game under streak last week.
Justin Herbert willed the Chargers to an overtime victory over the Raiders last week with 314/2 passing and 4/14/1 rushing as he played with his top players limited. Josh Allen just shredded this decimated Broncos defense for 359/2 passing and 33/2 rushing last week. Herbert posted 278/3 passing with 21 rushing yards against the Chargers in Week 8.
Keenan Allen (hamstring) and Mike Williams (back) each came into Week 15 with injuries and they both played limited roles in LA’s victory over Las Vegas. Allen recorded just a 17-yard catch on three targets while playing only 36% of the snaps and Williams wasn’t much better with 2/22 receiving on a 42% snap share. Allen and Williams will each have 10 days to get healthy for a showdown with an undermanned Broncos secondary in the fantasy finals. Allen posted 9/67/1 receiving while Williams had 5/99/1 in this matchup in Week 8.
With Allen (hamstring) and Williams (back) limited in Week 15, Tyron Johnson posted 3/61/1 receiving on five targets while Jalen Guyton did his typical lid-lifting with 4/91 receiving on six targets. Johnson now has 50+ receiving yards in four of his last five games while Guyton is averaging 18.7 YPR on his 25 catches. Johnson and Guyton are the handcuffs for Allen and Williams this week if they’d happen to rest.
Hunter Henry has run off double-digit FP in five of his last six games after leading the Chargers receivers in fantasy production against the Raiders with 5/65/1 receiving on seven targets. He posted just 4/33 receiving in this matchup in Week 8 while Dawson Knox recorded 2/36/1 receiving against the Broncos last week. Unfortunately, he won’t play this week after landing on the COVID-19 list on Thursday.
Austin Ekeler has posted 23 FP twice and 10-11 FP twice since returning to the lineup four weeks ago. He has 4+ catches in each game but he hasn’t found the end zone with Kalen Ballage vulturing a goal-line score last week. The Broncos are giving up a solid 136.2 scrimmage yards per game to RBs this season after Devin Singletary and Zack Moss combined 165/1 scrimmage last week.

Brolley’s Bets

Los Angeles Chargers (Staff Pick Leans)

Philadelphia Eagles (4-9-1, 5-9 ATS) at Dallas Cowboys (5-9, 4-10), 4:25 p.m.

Implied Team Totals: Eagles 25.75, Cowboys 24.75
Spread/Total Movements: 1 to 2
Weather: Dome
Eagles Injuries to Watch: CB Darius Slay (concussion), WR Jalen Reagor (ankle), DT Fletcher Cox (neck), P Cameron Johnson (concussion), CB Kevon Seymour (knee), LB Duke Riley (bicep), TE Richard Rodgers (ankle), DE Josh Sweat (wrist)
Cowboys Injuries to Watch: RB Ezekiel Elliott (calf), LB Leighton Vander Esch (ankle), DT Antwaun Woods (ankle), S Xavier Woods (ribs), TE Blake Bell (illness)

Eagles Trends

The Eagles beat the Cowboys 23-9 as 10.5-point home favorites in Week 8 in a game totaled at 43 points. Ben DiNucci got the spot start for Dallas in that contest.
Philly has failed to cover in five straight road games.
The Eagles have played over the total in consecutive games with Jalen Hurts after playing under the total in the final six games with Carson Wentz.
Philly is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite.
Jalen Hurts has scored 20.3 FP against the Saints and 37.8 FP on the road against the Cardinals last week, and he gets his easiest matchup yet against the Cowboys. Dallas is in the midst of an easy slate of quarterback matchups since their Week 10 bye, but they got torched by Lamar Jackson’s running in Week 13 to the tune of 94/1 rushing and 26.7 FP. Hurts ranks behind just Lamar as the QB2 with 29.1 FPG over his first two games.
Dallas Goedert saw a better snap share (88% to 75%) and a better target share (18% to 16%) than Zach Ertz last week. Goedert has 4+ catches in six straight games, but he’s failed to score in three straight games. The Cowboys haven’t been tested by TEs recently but Jordan Reed did score a TD against them last week.
Jalen Reagor has been Hurts’s favorite WR target while Greg Ward has quickly developed into his favorite option around the end zone. Reagor matched Goedert with a team-high eight targets in Week 15, which he turned into 5/49 receiving. Ward turned his five targets into 4/15/2 receiving against the Cardinals, which gives him three TDs in two-plus games with Hurts. San Francisco’s limited passing attack had three different WRs clear 55+ yards last week with Aiyuk/Bourne/James combining for 49.5 FP.
Miles Sanders has handled 36-of-41 RB touches since Hurts took over the offense with 90+ scrimmage yards in each contest. The Cowboys have been gashed for 133.6 rushing yards per game and 4.9 YPC by RBs this season.

Cowboys Trends

The Cowboys have won consecutive games as underdogs with 71 points scored against the Bengals and the 49ers.
The home team has covered in the last four games in this series.
Dallas is 4-1 toward overs in their last five games.
The Cowboys held Ezekiel Elliott out of the lineup in Week 15 with a calf injury, an issue that first landed him on the injury report before Week 13. Zeke’s absence paved the way for a monster performance from Tony Pollard, who posted 12/69/2 rushing and 6/63 receiving on nine targets against the 49ers. Pollard’s 31.2 FP in his first game as the team’s starter was better than any fantasy performance from Zeke this season, who topped out at 27.7 FP in the season opener. He also saw a 27% target share, which was better than any share that Zeke has seen this season. Zeke could be back this week but Pollard deserves to at least split the work in this backfield. The Eagles are giving up just 3.7 YPC and 115.1 scrimmage yards per game to RBs.
Andy Dalton has reached 20+ FP just once in six complete games this season, but he’s at least thrown for two TDs in three straight games. He’s attempted just 56 passes in the last two weeks with the Cowboys winning consecutive games in comfortable fashion. Kyler Murray posted 406/3 passing with an 11.3 YPA average against a decimated Eagles secondary last week.
Amari Cooper flopped last week with just 2/10 receiving on just three targets after posting 12+ FP with 4+ catches in five straight games. DeAndre Hopkins went bonkers (9/169/1 receiving) in this matchup last week with Darius Slay out with a concussion. Slay’s status will be an important one to follow since Coop has just 4/43 receiving on 13 targets in his last two matchups against Slay teams (Philly in Week 8 and Detroit last season).
Michael Gallup left last week with a hip pointer but he scored his second touchdown in the last three weeks before departing. He posted 7/61 receiving on 12 targets in this matchup earlier this season with Ben DiNucci at quarterback.
CeeDee Lamb had his best receiving game since Dak Prescott left the lineup with 5/85 receiving on seven targets, and he added a kickoff return TD on a late onside kick attempt. Lamb had fallen under 50 receiving yards in four straight games out of their Week 10 bye. He managed just 4/27 receiving against the Eagles in Week 8 with DiNucci at quarterback.
Dalton Schultz has seen just five targets in the last two games with the Cowboys actually playing with a lead, but he did find the end zone for just the second time in his last 10 games against the 49ers. He posted 6/53 receiving on eight targets back in Week with the Cowboys chasing points against the Eagles.

Brolley’s Bets

Philadelphia Eagles -2 (Staff Pick Leans)

Eagles-Cowboys Over 49.5 (Best Bet)

Dallas Goedert (Phi) over 3.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Los Angeles Rams (9-5, 8-6 ATS) at Seattle Seahawks (10-4, 7-7), 1 p.m.

Implied Team Totals: Rams 23.25, Seahawks 24.25
Spread/Total Movements: 2 to 1, 46.5 to 47.5
Weather: 45 degrees, clear, light winds
Rams Injuries to Watch: RB Cam Akers (ankle, out), RT Rob Havenstein (neck)
Seahawks Injuries to Watch: RB DeeJay Dallas (ankle, out), OG Phil Haynes (groin, IR), DT Jarran Reed (chest)

Rams Trends

The Rams beat the Seahawks 23-16 as three-point home favorites back in Week 10 in a game totaled at 55 points.
The Rams are coming off an embarrassing performance to the previously winless Jets. Los Angeles is one of just five teams to lose outright as favorites of 17 or more points since 1978.
The Rams are 10-4 toward unders, which includes a 9-2 run toward under in the last 11 games
Jared Goff is averaging 6.6 YPA with a 3.3% TD rate in his last nine games after starting the year averaging 9.0 YPA with a 5.3% TD rate in his first five games. Goff has averaged more than 8.0 YPA just once in his last nine games, which came against the Seahawks in Week 10 when he completed 27/37 passes for 302 yards (8.2 YPA) without a touchdown.
Robert Woods disappointed in this matchup in Week 10 with just 5/33 receiving, but he’s posted 80+ receiving yards and/or a TD in four of his five games since then. He has 5+ catches in seven straight games for a solid floor. Terry McLaurin needed 12 targets to post 7/77 receiving last week.
Cooper Kupp has been more volatile than Woods recently as he’s fallen below 45 receiving yards in three out of his last four games. He still has 5+ catches in seven of his last eight games, including 5/50 receiving on seven targets against the Seahawks in Week 10.
Tyler Higbee has reached double-digit FP in two out of his last three games after doing it just once through the first 12 weeks of the season. He posted 3/60 receiving on six targets in this matchup in Week 10
Cam Akers has handled 92% of the RB carries with a 10% target share in the last two games, but he won’t play this week after suffering a high ankle sprain late last week. Darrell Henderson will likely step back into the lead-runner role while Malcolm Brown will work in a complementary role in passing situations with some potential goal-line snaps. Henderson posted 7/28/1 rushing in this matchup earlier this season while Brown fell into the end zone twice on two goal-line carries.

Seahawks Trends

The Seahawks have failed to cover in seven of their last 10 games after a perfect 4-0 ATS start to the season.
The Seahawks haven’t allowed a team to reach 24+ points since Week 9, and they’re allowing just 13.0 points per game in their last four games.
Seattle has played under the total in six straight games.
Russell Wilson has topped out at 17 FP in four of his last six games, which includes his 12.9 FP performance against the Rams in Week 10 when he posted 248 scoreless yards. Wilson hasn’t reached 265 passing yards in six straight games after he threw for 315+ yards in five of his first eight games. The Rams are giving up a league-low 213.1 passing yards per game to QBs.
D.K. Metcalf posted a season-worst 2/28 receiving on four targets against Jalen Ramsey and company in Week 10. Metcalf has 5+ catches in four straight games, but his yardage totals have shrunk in four straight games (177>80>61>43). The Rams are allowing a league-low 131.1 receiving yards per game to WRs.
Tyler Lockett has failed to reach 70+ receiving yards in eight straight games, and he’s reached 13+ FP just once in that span. He posted 5/66 receiving on a team-high nine targets in this matchup in Week 10.
Chris Carson has seen between 17-19 opportunities per game since he returned to the lineup, and he’s averaging 92.3 scrimmage yards per game and two TDs in that span. He played a season-high 70% of the snaps, which was a bit of a surprise with Rashaad Penny in the mix for the first time since 2019. Carlos Hyde saw just five opportunities last week but he broke off a 50-yard TD run. The Rams are stingy to RBs too as they’re allowing just 78.1 rushing yards per game with just 10 scores allowed to RBs.

Brolley’s Bets

Seattle Seahawks -1.5 (Best Bet)

D.K. Metcalf (Sea) under 71.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Russell Wilson (Sea) under 272.5 passing yards (Best Bet)

Sunday Night Football

Tennessee Titans (10-4, 7-7 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (11-3, 8-6), 8:20 p.m.

Implied Team Totals: Titans 26.25, Packers 29.25
Spread/Total Movements: 4 to 3, 56 to 55.5
Weather: 29 degrees, 35% chance of snow/rain, 5-10 mph
Titans Injuries to Watch: OT Dennis Kelly (knee), DL Jeffery Simmons (knee), TE Jonnu Smith (knee), WR A.J. Brown (ankle)
Packers Injuries to Watch: RB Jamaal Williams (quad)

Titans Trends

The Titans have posted 30+ points in five straight games and they own a 4-1 ATS mark in that span.
Tennessee is 10-3-1 toward overs, which includes five straight overs when they’re underdogs.
Derrick Henry has averaged 4.0 YPC or better in six straight games with 100+ rushing yards in five of those contests. He’s been good for 20+ FP in four of his last five games with seven TDs in that span. The Packers are giving up 4.5 YPC, 92.6 rushing yards per game, and 13 rushing TDs to RBs this season.
Henry and his 1679 rushing yards get most of the publicity for this offense, but Ryan Tannehill now owns 35 total touchdowns with just six turnovers this season. Tannehill has accounted for multiple TDs in five straight games and in 12-of-14 games this season. He could be pressed to throw a little more this week as 3.5-point road underdogs, but the Packers haven’t allowed multiple TDs to QBs in three straight games in six of their last eight games.
A.J. Brown has posted 11+ FP in 10 of his last 11 games with TDs in nine of those games after posting 5/44/1 receiving on six targets last week. D.J. Moore posted 6/131 receiving on eight targets in this matchup last week.
Corey Davis cleared 100+ receiving yards for the fifth time last week with 4/110/1 receiving against the Lions. He’s posted double-digit FP in 10-of-12 games this season and he’s now averaging 15.8 YPR. Davis has 6+ catches and 15+ FP in three of their four losses this season and the Titans enter as 3.5-point road underdogs. The Packers are giving up just 11.9 catches and 149.9 receiving yards per game to WRs.
Jonnu Smith posted 5/52 receiving against the Lions last week, which was his most catches and yards in a game since Week 5. The Packers are giving up just 3.9 catches per game to TEs (4th-fewest) this season.

Packers Trends

The Packers have failed to cover in consecutive games after a two-game cover streak
Green Bay has played under the total in three straight games.
Aaron Jones could be looking at a massive workload again this week after Jamaal Williams (quad) left early. Jones played by far a season-high 90% of the snaps and he turned his 23 touches into 158 yards and a touchdown against the Panthers. The Titans have given up 17 TDs to RBs this season, and D’Andre Swift posted 19/82/2 scrimmage in this matchup last week.
Aaron Rodgers had thrown 3+ TDs in 8-of-9 games in Weeks 7-14, but he managed just 143/1 passing with a rushing TD against the Panthers last week. The Titans have held Matthew Stafford and Gardner Minshew to a combined two TD passes the last two weeks, but the Titans are still giving up 2.1 TD passes per game (3rd-most).
Davante Adams failed to find the end zone for the first time in eight games, but he still reached 6+ catches for the 10th consecutive game and he posted a 34% target share (10 targets). Marvin Jones roasted the Titans for 10/112/1 receiving last week.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has posted zero FP or worse in three of his last four games while Allen Lazard had his best game since September with 5/56 receiving on six targets against the Panthers in Week 15. The Titans are giving up the third-most FPG (43.0) and they’re facing the second-most targets (25.1) against WRs.
Robert Tonyan has scored in five straight games with 10 TDs total this season. He saw just three targets last week after posting 4+ catches in four straight games. The Titans have given up seven TDs to TEs, but they haven’t allowed a TE to reach 6+ FP in three straight games.

Brolley’s Bets

Green Bay Packers -3 (Staff Pick Leans)

Aaron Jones (GB) over 96.5 rushing and receiving yards (Best Bet)

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Week 16 Sunday Trends and Picks