My power ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season.
I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks for the week, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant. I’m currently baking in a one and a half to two-point advantage for home teams right now. I hope you find these ratings useful and good luck with your wagers!
| Rank | Team | Power Rating | Record (ATS) | Ratings Change | Super Bowl LV Odds |
| 1. | Kansas City Chiefs | 9 | 13-1 (7-7) | — | +170 |
| 2. | Buffalo Bills | 6.5 | 11-3 (9-5) | +.5 | +900 |
| 3. | Green Bay Packers | 6 | 11-3 (8-6) | — | +550 |
| 4. | Baltimore Ravens | 6 | 9-5 (8-6) | +.5 | +1400 |
| 5. | New Orleans Saints | 5.5 | 10-4 (7-7) | -.5 | +850 |
| 6. | Seattle Seahawks | 5.5 | 10-4 (7-7) | — | +1300 |
| 7. | Los Angeles Rams | 5 | 9-5 (8-6) | -1 | +1500 |
| 8. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5 | 9-5 (7-7) | -.5 | +1400 |
| 9. | Indianapolis Colts | 5 | 10-4 (8-8) | +.5 | +2800 |
| 10. | Tennessee Titans | 4.5 | 10-4 (7-7) | +1 | +2500 |
| 11. | Cleveland Browns | 4 | 10-4 (6-8) | +.5 | +3000 |
| 12. | Arizona Cardinals | 2.5 | 8-6 (7-7) | +1 | +5000 |
| 13. | Miami Dolphins | 2.5 | 9-5 (11-3) | +.5 | +8000 |
| 14. | Chicago Bears | 1 | 7-7 (7-7) | +2 | +20000 |
| 15. | Washington | 1 | 6-8 (9-5) | +.5 | +7000 |
| 16. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1 | 11-3 (8-6) | -3 | +2500 |
| 17. | Minnesota Vikings | 0 | 6-8 (6-8) | -.5 | Eliminated |
| 19. | Philadelphia Eagles | -.5 | 4-9-1 (5-9) | +1 | +17500 |
| 18. | Atlanta Falcons | -1 | 4-10 (6-8) | — | Eliminated |
| 20. | Las Vegas Raiders | -1 | 7-7 (7-7) | -1.5 | +50000 |
| 21. | Carolina Panthers | -1 | 4-10 (8-6) | — | Eliminated |
| 22. | New England Patriots | -1.5 | 6-8 (6-8) | -1 | Eliminated |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | -2 | 5-9 (7-7) | +.5 | Eliminated |
| 24. | San Francisco 49ers | -2 | 5-9 (5-9) | -2 | Eliminated |
| 25. | New York Giants | -2.5 | 5-9 (8-6) | -1 | +17500 |
| 26. | Houston Texans | -2.5 | 4-10 (5-9) | — | Eliminated |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | -3 | 5-9 (8-6) | -1 | Eliminated |
| 28. | Dallas Cowboys | -3.5 | 5-9 (4-10) | +1.5 | +22500 |
| 29. | Detroit Lions | -4 | 5-9 (6-8) | -1 | Eliminated |
| 30. | Jacksonville Jaguars | -6.5 | 1-13 (6-8) | -1 | Eliminated |
| 31. | New York Jets | -7 | 1-13 (4-10) | +1 | Eliminated |
| 32. | Cincinnati Bengals | -8 | 3-10-1 (8-6) | +1 | Eliminated |
Week 16 Risers
Teams who improved from the last Power Ratings update on Dec. 16.
Buffalo Bills (6 to 6.5) — The Bills totaled 48 points and 534 yards while averaging 8.2 yards per play in their blowout victory over the Broncos last week. The Bills have reeled off six consecutive covers after an 0-4 ATS stretch in Weeks 5-8, and they’ve won seven of their last eight games with their only loss coming on the Hail Murray pass in Week 10.
Baltimore Ravens (5.5 to 6) — The Ravens are sleeping giants in the AFC playoffs with three consecutive outright victories and four straight covers. Lamar Jackson is showing flashes of 2019 form in the last three weeks as he’s scored 10 total TDs and the offense is averaging 40.3 points per game in that span.
Indianapolis Colts (4.5 to 5) — The Colts failed to cover last week but they’ve still covered in four of their last six games with just one ugly performance mixed in there — a lopsided loss to the Titans in Week 12. Philip Rivers has thrown for multiple TDs in five straight games while Jonathan Taylor has scored four times in his last three games.
Tennessee Titans (3.5 to 4.5) — The Titans have posted 30+ points in five straight games and they own a 4-1 ATS mark in that span. Derrick Henry and his 1679 rushing yards get most of the publicity for this offense, but Ryan Tannehill now owns 35 total touchdowns with just six turnovers this season.
Cleveland Browns (3.5 to 4) — The Browns reached 10 victories for the first time since 2007, and they could clinch their first playoff berth since 2002 with a win and some help this week. Cleveland owns a 10-4 record but they still have a -6 point differential, which is behind the 4-10 Atlanta Falcons at +2.
Arizona Cardinals (1.5 to 2.5) — Kyler Murray is back to his old ways in the last two weeks with 21/76/1 rushing and 650/4 passing with a 9.2 YPA average. The Cardinals have covered back-to-back games after a five-game ATS losing streak in Weeks 9-13.
Miami Dolphins (2 to 2.5) — The Dolphins have now covered in four straight games and in nine of their last 10 games with their only blemish coming in their 20-13 loss to the Broncos in Week 11. The Dolphins have an NFL-best 11-3 ATS record and they’re now 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games.
Washington Football Team (.5 to 1) — The Football Team failed to win their fifth consecutive game to all but wrap up the NFC East, but they still grabbed their fifth straight cover even with Dwayne Haskins at quarterback.
Chicago Bears (-1 to 1) — I’ve made my biggest adjustments of the last two weeks on the surging Bears. Chicago dug itself a hole by losing six straight games after a 5-1 start to the season. David Montgomery and Mitchell Trubisky have them right back in the mix as the offense has scored 30+ points in three straight games.
Philadelphia Eagles (-2 to -1) — The Eagles waited a little too long to give Hurts a chance to play with their NFC East title hopes fading away. The rookie QB has given this once lifeless offense a shot in the arm with 505/4 passing and 169/1 rushing in his first two starts.
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5 to -2) — The Chargers have won consecutive one-score games and they have a pair of covers in the last two weeks after their six-game ATS losing streak in Weeks 8-13. With his top receivers limited, Justin Herbert willed the Chargers to an overtime victory with 314/2 passing and 4/14/1 rushing.
Dallas Cowboys (-5 to -3.5) — Tony Pollard has looked like the best running back in Dallas since Dak Prescott’s injury, and he proved it in Week 15 with 132/2 scrimmage with Zeke out of the lineup. The Cowboys have won consecutive games as underdogs with 71 points scored against the Bengals and the 49ers to keep their slim NFC East title hopes alive.
New York Jets (-8.5 to -7) — The Jets pulled off the biggest upset of the season with their stunning defeat of the Rams as 17.5-point underdogs. The Jets are one of just five teams to win outright as underdogs of 17 or more points since 1978. The significant downside to that unpredictable victory is that they’re now underdogs to land Trevor Lawrence with the Jaguars the odds-on favorites to pick first in 2021 with two games left in the season.
Cincinnati Bengals (-9 to -8) — The Steelers handed the Bengals a victory with three first-half turnovers to set them up with a 17-point lead, which they held onto in a 27-17 victory as 14.5-point home underdogs. The Bengals still averaged just 4.1 yards per play with just 230 total yards so they’re still far from being an offensive juggernaut.
Week 16 Fallers
Teams who worsened from the last Power Ratings update on Dec. 16.
New Orleans Saints (6 to 5.5) — Drew Brees didn’t look quite ready for primetime last week after a five-week layoff for his 11 broken ribs. He did start to heat up late with three touchdown passes with the Chiefs playing soft with a lead. The ceiling for this Saints squad could be capped with Michael Thomas (ankle, IR) struggling to get back to full health.
Los Angeles Rams (6 to 4.5) — The Rams are coming off an embarrassing performance to the previously winless Jets. Los Angeles is one of just five teams to lose outright as favorites of 17 or more points since 1978. Jared Goff is averaging 6.6 YPA with a 3.3% TD rate in his last nine games after a strong start to the season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5.5 to 5) — The Buccaneers got off to yet another sluggish start in Week 15 with no points and just 60 yards against the Falcons before their offense woke up and posted 31 points and 356 yards in their comeback victory.
Pittsburgh Steelers (4 to 1) — The Steelers somehow edged out the Rams for the most pathetic performance in Week 15. They mustered just 40 total yards and no points in the first half against the Bengals, which set the stage for their 27-17 loss as 14.5-point road favorites. Pittsburgh has dropped three consecutive games after an 11-0 start, and they’re on a four-game ATS losing streak as they’ve failed to reach 20 points during that stretch.
Minnesota Vikings (.5 to 0) — The Vikings have failed to cover in five straight games after they ran off a 6-1 ATS stretch in Weeks 3-10. Mike Zimmer’s once-vaunted defense has given up 26+ points in each of the last five games, including 33 points to Mitch Trubisky and the Bears last week.
Las Vegas Raiders (0 to -1.5) — The Raiders failed to cover for the fourth straight week after a four-game ATS winning streak in Weeks 8-11, and they also dropped their fourth game in their last five contests with their overtime loss to the Chargers. Las Vegas’ slim playoff hopes will likely rest on the shoulders of Marcus Mariota in the final two weeks of the season after Derek Carr suffered a groin injury early in Week 15.
New England Patriots (-.5 to -1.5) — New England’s NFL record 11-year playoff streak officially came to an end with its loss to the Dolphins last week. The Patriots have mustered just 15 points in their last two games against the Dolphins and the Rams, and Cam Newton has just five TD passes in 13 games this season.
San Francisco 49ers (0 to -2) — The 49ers threw everyone off their scent when they knocked off the Rams in Week 12 as they’ve now lost three consecutive games outright. San Francisco is now 1-6 ATS in its last seven games after giving up 41 points and 458 yards to the Cowboys.
New York Giants (-1.5 to -2.5) — The Giants offense is floundering right now with Daniel Jones injured and with Colt McCoy forced to play. The Giants have played under the total in six straight games, and they’ve failed to reach 20+ points in four straight games and 10+ points in back-to-back games.
Denver Broncos (-2 to -3) — The Broncos got run out of their home stadium on national TV last week by a Bills squad that totaled 48 points and 534 yards while averaging 8.2 yards per play. Drew Lock went from averaging a career-high 10.4 YPA against the Panthers in Week 14 to averaging a measly 4.1 YPA.
Detroit Lions (-3 to -4) — The Lions had their two-game cover streak under Darrell Bevell snapped last week with Derek Henry and Ryan Tannehill combining to post 46 points against Detroit. The Lions pulled Matthew Stafford (ribs) early last week in their blowout loss and you have to wonder if they’ll end his season early.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5 to -6.5) — The Jaguars defense has given up 27+ points in five straight games and in 12 of their last 13 games since they beat the Colts in the season opener. The Jaguars could also be without their offensive MVP going forward after James Robinson left Week 15 early with an ankle injury. Robinson has been slowed in recent weeks because of a knee injury, and the organization could sit him this week with their sights set on the #1 overall pick and Trevor Lawrence after the Jets’ surprise Week 15 victory.
