My power ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season.
I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks for the week, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant. I’m currently baking in a one and a half to two-point advantage for home teams right now. I hope you find these ratings useful and good luck with your wagers!
| Rank | Team | Power Rating | Record (ATS) | Ratings Change | Super Bowl LV Odds |
| 1. | Kansas City Chiefs | 9.5 | 9-1 (6-4) | — | +300 |
| 2. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.5 | 10-0 (8-2) | +.5 | +550 |
| 3. | New Orleans Saints | 6 | 8-2 (5-5) | +2 | +550 |
| 4. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5.5 | 7-4 (5-6) | -.5 | +1100 |
| 5. | Green Bay Packers | 5 | 7-3 (6-4) | — | +1200 |
| 6. | Seattle Seahawks | 5 | 7-3 (6-4) | +.5 | +1300 |
| 7. | Los Angeles Rams | 4.5 | 7-3 (6-4) | +1 | +1200 |
| 8. | Indianapolis Colts | 4.5 | 7-3 (6-4) | +.5 | +2000 |
| 9. | Baltimore Ravens | 4 | 6-4 (4-6) | -1.5 | +1800 |
| 10. | Arizona Cardinals | 3.5 | 6-4 (5-5) | — | +3000 |
| 11. | Buffalo Bills | 3 | 7-3 (5-5) | — | +2200 |
| 12. | Las Vegas Raiders | 3 | 6-4 (7-3) | +.5 | +5000 |
| 13. | Tennessee Titans | 2.5 | 7-3 (4-6) | — | +2500 |
| 14. | Cleveland Browns | 2 | 7-3 (4-6) | +.5 | +4000 |
| 15. | Miami Dolphins | 1.5 | 6-4 (7-3) | -1 | +5000 |
| 16. | Minnesota Vikings | 1 | 4-6 (6-4) | -1 | +10000 |
| 17. | Los Angeles Chargers | 0 | 3-7 (5-5) | — | +35000 |
| 18. | Houston Texans | 0 | 3-7 (3-7) | +.5 | +35000 |
| 19. | Atlanta Falcons | 0 | 3-7 (4-6) | -.5 | +50000 |
| 20. | San Francisco 49ers | -.5 | 4-6 (4-6) | — | +10000 |
| 21. | New England Patriots | -.5 | 4-6 (4-6) | -.5 | +10000 |
| 22. | Carolina Panthers | -.5 | 4-7 (6-5) | +.5 | +22500 |
| 23. | Philadelphia Eagles | -1 | 3-6-1 (3-7) | -.5 | +8000 |
| 24. | Chicago Bears | -1.5 | 5-5 (5-5) | — | +8000 |
| 25. | New York Giants | -1.5 | 3-7 (7-3) | — | +12500 |
| 26. | Denver Broncos | -2.5 | 4-6 (6-4) | +.5 | +35000 |
| 27. | Detroit Lions | -3 | 4-6 (3-7) | -1.5 | +20000 |
| 28. | Washington | -3.5 | 3-7 (6-4) | +.5 | +17500 |
| 29. | Dallas Cowboys | -4 | 3-7 (2-8) | +1.5 | +10000 |
| 30. | Cincinnati Bengals | -6 | 2-7-1 (6-4) | -4 | +150000 |
| 31. | Jacksonville Jaguars | -7 | 1-9 (4-6) | -1.5 | +300000 |
| 32. | New York Jets | -7.5 | 0-10 (3-7) | +1 | Eliminated |
Week 12 Risers
Teams who improved from the last Power Ratings update on Nov. 18.
Pittsburgh Steelers (7 to 7.5) — The Steelers remained unbeaten with their 10th victory of the season, and they continue to make bank for their backers as they now stand alone with the best ATS record in the league at 8-2. Pittsburgh has now covered seven of its last eight games after outscoring the Bengals and the Jaguars 63-13 over the last two weeks.
New Orleans Saints (4 to 6) — I screwed up docking the Saints a full point last week with Drew Brees out of the lineup with his rib injury. The Saints were playing the Falcons so I don’t want to go too overboard, but New Orleans’ offense could have more potential with Hill at the trigger. HC Sean Payton ran his traditional offense in Week 11, but Hill’s stronger arm and his ability to run added dimensions to the offense that don’t exist with Brees in charge.
Seattle Seahawks (4.5 to 5) — Seattle’s defense showed some signs of life against the Cardinals last week by limiting Arizona to 21 points and Kyler Murray to 15 rushing yards. The Seahawks traded for Carlos Dunlap at the end of October and he’s already racked up five sacks in three games after getting to Murray twice last week.
Los Angeles Rams (3.5 to 4.5) — The Rams have been a run-centric team in the first half of the season, but they scraped it against one of the toughest run outfits in the league. Jared Goff tossed it around the yard 51 times against the Buccaneers in their impressive victory, with Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp accounting for 23/275/1 receiving.
Indianapolis Colts (4 to 4.5) — The Colts erased a 14-point halftime deficit by keeping Aaron Rodgers and company out of the end zone for the final 33 minutes in Week 11. Indy’s second-round picks Jonathan Taylor (114 scrimmage yards) and Michael Pittman (3/66/1 receiving) drove the offense for the first time together, which could be a sign of things to come.
Las Vegas Raiders (2.5 to 3) — The Raiders are getting a bump up in my power rating despite their loss. They gave the Chiefs everything they could handle after beating them earlier this season by averaging 6.4 yards per play. The Raiders have covered four straight spreads and they’ll look to finish 5-0 ATS in November against the Falcons this week.
Cleveland Browns (1.5 to 2) — The Browns played their third consecutive game in ugly conditions in Cleveland, and they emerged with their first ATS cover since Week 5 in a 22-17 victory over the Eagles as 2.5-point home favorites.
Houston Texans (-.5 to 0) — Deshaun Watson is playing about as well as any quarterback in the league right now as he posted 344/2 passing and 36/1 rushing against the Patriots in Week 11, which was Houston’s second consecutive cover after a 1-7 ATS start to the season.
Carolina Panthers (-1 to -.5) — The Panthers defense posted their first shutout victory since 2015 in their 20-0 victory over the Lions. The Panthers kept Detroit from reaching the red zone in Week 11 and they limited them to just 185 total yards and 3.4 yards per play.
Denver Broncos (-3 to -2.5) — The Broncos and the Dolphins appeared to be two teams moving in different directions heading into their Week 11 showdown, but it was Denver who dominated Miami by averaging 7.3 yards per play on offense and by limiting the Dolphins to just 3.7 yards per play.
Washington Football Team (-4 to -3.5) — Young studs Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson are powering Washington’s offense every week as they combined for 178 of the Football Team’s 325 yards in Week 10. Washington's win over the Bengals was the NFC East’s first victory in 10 head-to-head matchups against the AFC North (1-8-1) this season.
Dallas Cowboys (-5.5 to -4) — The Cowboys have a pulse again in the wide-open NFC East title race after knocking off the Vikings as seven-point road underdogs. Dallas scored 31 points against the Vikings after scoring just 41 points combined in their first four games without Dak Prescott.
New York Jets (-8.5 to -7.5) — The Jets offense actually looks like a competent unit now that they have two legitimate threats on the perimeter in Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims to threaten opposing defense downfield.
Week 12 Fallers
Teams who worsened from the last Power Ratings update on Nov. 18.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6 to 5.5) — Tom Brady looked sleepy again in primetime as he averaged just 4.5 YPA with a pair of ugly downfield interceptions against the Rams. The defense wasn’t much better with Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp combining for 23/275/1 receiving.
Baltimore Ravens (5.5 to 4) — Who would’ve thought that the Steelers could end Baltimore’s hopes of repeating as the AFC North champions by Thanksgiving Day. The Ravens have failed to cover in six of their last eight games, and they’re now on the outside looking in for the playoffs with six games remaining in the season.
Miami Dolphins (2 to 1.5) — Miami’s quarterback situation remains a bit unsettled after HC Brian Flores benched rookie Tua Tagovailoa for Ryan Fitzpatrick with 10 minutes remaining in Week 11. Fitz couldn’t lead the Dolphins back to the victory as he got picked off on a pass intended for DeVante Parker in the end zone. Flores diffused the situation by announcing after the game that Tua would remain the starter, but this situation figures to have some more twists and turns in the final six weeks.
Minnesota Vikings (2 to 1) — The Vikings climbed right back into the NFC playoff race by winning three consecutive NFC North games in Weeks 8-10. They squandered their work by losing to the Cowboys as seven-point home favorites. Dallas scored 31 points against the Vikings after scoring just 41 points combined in their previous four games.
Atlanta Falcons (.5 to 0) — The Falcons once again went into the tank with Julio Jones out of the lineup — he played just 22 snaps after aggravating his lingering hamstring injury. Matt Ryan absorbed eight sacks and he threw two INTs with the Falcons averaging just 4.2 yards per play.
Philadelphia Eagles (-.5 to -1) — It’s getting ugly for Carson Wentz and the Eagles with HC Doug Pederson having to answer questions about whether he’s considering a switch at quarterback. Miles Sanders fumbled away an early touchdown opportunity inside the five-yard line before Wentz threw a pick-six in the second quarter to squander away early opportunities to beat the Browns.
New England Patriots (0 to -.5) — The Patriots defense had no answers for Deshaun Watson and Houston’s passing attack with the Texans averaging 7.1 yards per play. The Patriots lost Rex Burkhead to a season-ending knee injury after providing a spark to the offense with a bigger role in Weeks 9-10.
Detroit Lions (-1.5 to -3) — The Lions are coming off an embarrassing 20-0 shutout loss to the Panthers as three-point road favorites as their offense looked completely lost without their two best offensive weapons. Detroit could muster only 185 yards and they didn’t even reach the red zone against a below-average NFL defense last week.
Cincinnati Bengals (-2 to -7) — I’m docking the Bengals four points with the Bengals going from Joe Burrow to Ryan Finley at quarterback, and even that move doesn’t feel like enough after watching Finley throw for just 30 yards on 10 attempts in the final 25 minutes in Week 11. Granted, I can’t blame the Bengals for their performance after Burrow went down with a catastrophic leg injury, but we’ll see how much fight they have going forward without their franchise QB.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5 to -7) — The Jaguars have been crushed by injuries as C.J. Henderson landed on the IR last week with a groin injury while DE Josh Allen (knee), CB D.J. Hayden (knee), OG Andrew Norwell (arm), CB Chris Claybrooks (groin), and S Daniel Thomas (arm) each left Week 11 early with injuries. The Jaguars also played without rookie WR Laviska Shenault (hamstring) and CB Sidney Jones (Achilles) last week. Jacksonville’s quarterback situation is also a mess with Jake Luton looking like a sixth-round pick while Gardner Minshew (thumb) hasn’t been healthy enough to dress.
