Each Monday morning during the season, I’ll preview three games with spreads that I think will move by the end of the week. This article is designed to help you get the best odds possible by helping you to decide if you should place a bet early in the week or if you should wait to wager until closer to kickoff based on potential line movements. I’ll include any early week leans and wagers that I make in my write-ups.
Week 12 Opening Lines
Thanksgiving
Houston Texans (-2) at Detroit Lions
Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
Sunday Early
Las Vegas Raiders (-1) at Atlanta Falcons
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at New England Patriots
New York Giants (-4.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns (-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings (-4)
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-5.5)
Miami Dolphins (-7) at New York Jets
Sunday Late
New Orleans (-5.5) at Denver Broncos
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-8)
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday Night
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-8)
Monday Night
Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Baltimore Ravens (6-4, 4-6 ATS) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-0, 8-2)
Opening Line: Steelers -3
Recent Results: The Steelers remained unbeaten with their 27-3 beatdown of the Jaguars in Week 11 as 11-point road favorites. Pittsburgh has now covered seven of its last eight games after outscoring the Bengals and the Jaguars 63-13 over the last two weeks. The Ravens continued their backslide in Week 11 in a 30-24 overtime loss to the Titans as six-point home favorites. The Ravens have failed to cover in six of their last eight games, and they’re now on the outside looking in for the playoffs with six games remaining in the season.
Injuries/Developments to Follow: Both teams will face a quick turnaround this week before Thanksgiving, but the Steelers were able to pull their foot off the gas at the end of their victory against the Jaguars while the Ravens had to play an extra five minutes in their overtime loss. JuJu Smith-Schuster did leave early with a bizarre toe injury when he stepped on an official’s flag, but he’s expected to be ready to play. The Steelers did lose TE Zach Gentry to a knee injury, which could skew the Steelers toward the pass even more than usual if Vance McDonald can’t return from the COVID-19 list this week. The Steelers were down to using backup tackle Gerald Hawkins as a blocking tight end last week after Gentry left early. The Ravens could use some relief if their run defense is going to be without DT Brandon Williams (ankle) and DE Calais Campbell (calf) again this week.
Potential Line Movement: Who would’ve thought that the Steelers could end Baltimore’s hopes of repeating as the AFC North champions by Thanksgiving Day. I bet the Steelers at -1.5 on a lookahead line at the end of last week and this line has climbed to -3 after Baltimore’s overtime loss to the Titans. The Ravens have now failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games, including in their 28-24 loss to the Steelers as four-point home favorites in Week 8. Meanwhile, the Steelers continue to make bank for their backers as they now stand alone with the best ATS record in the league at 8-2. I’m expecting the markets to crash on the Ravens later this week especially with a little extra money coming in on Thanksgiving so grab the Steelers now at -3 before this line closes in the -4 to -5 point range.
Houston Texans (3-7, 3-7 ATS) at Detroit Lions (4-6, 4-6)
- Opening Line: Texans -2
- Recent Results: The Lions are coming off an embarrassing 20-0 shutout loss to the Panthers as three-point road favorites as their offense looked completely lost without their two best offensive weapons. Detroit could muster only 185 yards and they didn’t even reach the red zone against a below-average NFL defense last week. The Texans are coming off their second consecutive ATS cover in a 27-20 victory over the Patriots as 2.5-point home underdogs. Deshaun Watson took the Texans on his back with 344/2 passing and 36/1 rushing as Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller, and Jordan Akins each topped 80+ receiving yards.
- Injuries/Developments to Follow: Matthew Stafford struggled in his first game playing through his throwing thumb injury, and this offense could be hard-pressed this week if Kenny Golladay (hip), D’Andre Swift (concussion), and Danny Amendola (hip) are unable to play with a short week to get ready. The Texans lost some firepower of their own with Randall Cobb (foot) and Kenny Stills (leg) going down. DL P.J. Hall (chest) also could miss this week, which would hurt their already poor run defense.
- Potential Line Movement: Watson is playing about as well as any quarterback in the league right now, and I don’t see the markets looking to back a Lions team on Thanksgiving that’s been out-classed in three of their last four games. They’ve lost to the Panthers, the Vikings, and the Colts by a combined 54 points since Week 8 with their lone win coming by three points against a bad Washington team. I’m grabbing the Texans now while the line is under a field goal since I’m expecting this line to close in the -3 to -3.5 point range on Thanksgiving.
Cleveland Browns (7-3, 4-6 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9, 4-6)
- Opening Line: Browns -6
- Recent Results: The Browns played their third consecutive game in ugly conditions in Cleveland, and they emerged with their first ATS cover since Week 5 in a 22-17 victory over the Eagles as 2.5-point home favorites. The Jaguars got smoked 27-3 by the Steelers as 11-point home underdogs as rookie QB Jake Luton threw four interceptions against a ferocious Pittsburgh defense.
- Injuries/Developments to Follow: The Jaguars have been crushed by injuries as C.J. Henderson landed on the IR last week with a groin injury while DE Josh Allen (knee), CB D.J. Hayden (knee), OG Andrew Norwell (arm), CB Chris Claybrooks (groin), and S Daniel Thomas (arm) each left Week 11 early with injuries. The Jaguars also played without rookie WR Laviska Shenault (hamstring) and CB Sidney Jones (Achilles) last week. YIKES. Jacksonville’s quarterback situation is also a mess with Luton looking like a sixth-round pick while Gardner Minshew (thumb) hasn’t been healthy enough to dress. The Browns would love to get DE Myles Garrett back this week off of the COVID-19 list, but he could be a long shot after testing positive at the end of last week.
- Potential Line Movement: I’m purely fading a Jacksonville squad that is swimming right now with so many injury issues coming off a whipping by the Steelers last week. I’m taking a flawed but winning Cleveland team at -6 early in the week before this line climbs to over a touchdown later in the week once people realize how awful Jacksonville’s injury report is. I’m not exactly dying to lay to six points with the Browns on the road, but the Jaguars could be in some serious trouble if Allen, Hayden, and Norwell miss this week. We also haven’t seen Cleveland’s offense at full strength because of terrible weather conditions in their last three games, but this week is definitely a get-well spot against a banged-up Jaguars defense. With the Jets suddenly looking competent on offense, the Jaguars are challenging New York to be the worst team in the league, but I don’t think the Jaguars are being priced like it this week.
Brolley’s Early Week 12 Bets
Pittsburgh Steelers -3
Houston Texans -2
Cleveland Browns -6
Chargers-Bills over 53
