Each Monday morning during the season, I’ll preview three games with spreads that I think will move by the end of the week. This article is designed to help you get the best odds possible by helping you to decide if you should place a bet early in the week or if you should wait to wager until closer to kickoff based on potential line movements. I’ll include any early week leans and wagers that I make in my write-ups.
Week 11 Opening Lines
Thursday Night Football
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
Sunday Early Afternoon
Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns (-3.5)
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans (no line) — Drew Brees injury situation
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers (no line) — Teddy Bridgewater injury situation
New England Patriots at Houston Texans (pick-em)
Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team (-2)
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
Sunday Late Afternoon
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (-8.5)
Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at Denver Broncos
New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5)
Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
Sunday Night Football
Kansas City Chiefs (-7) at Las Vegas Raiders
Monday Night Football
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)
Byes
Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers
Miami Dolphins (6-3, 7-2 ATS) at Denver Broncos (3-6, 5-4)
Game tile coming soon
Opening Line: Dolphins -2.5
Recent Results: Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins stretched their record to 3-0 overall and against the spread with a 29-21 victory over the Chargers as 1.5-point home favorites. Miami is on a five-game ATS win streak overall and they’re now sitting just a half-game behind the Bills for first place in the AFC East. The Broncos are coming off a humbling loss to the division-rival Raiders in a 37-12 beatdown as 3.5-point road underdogs. Denver has failed to cover in three of its last four games, and the only game it covered in that stretch came on the final play of the game in their victory over the Chargers.
Injuries/Developments to Follow: The Dolphins escaped Week 10 relatively healthy and they may have discovered another option in their backfield after Salvon Ahmed posted 21/85/1 rushing. Miami could get Matt Breida (hamstring) back this week to bolster their backfield, too. Tim Patrick got ejected last week but it doesn’t look like he’ll face further punishment. Denver’s biggest issue is the continued shaky play of Lock, who has averaged more than 6.5 YPA in just one of his six full games this season.
Potential Line Movement: Lock is an absolute mess at quarterback for the Broncos with 10 INTs in his last five games, which is bad news this week going against a Dolphins defense that nearly scored a D/ST touchdown for the third straight game against the Chargers last week. I bet the Dolphins at -2.5 on Sunday night but I still like them laying three points on the road this week since I think this line closes in the 3.5 to 4.5 point range. Bettors looking to back the Broncos have no reason to rush to the window early in the week with Miami’s bandwagon growing by the week.
Cincinnati Bengals (2-6-1, 6-3 ATS) at Washington Football Team (2-7, 4-5)
- Opening Line: Washington -2
- Recent Results: The Bengals clearly aren’t ready to compete with the top of the AFC North after the Steelers dropped the hammer on the Bengals in a 36-10 loss as 6.5-point road underdogs. Cincinnati finished a dreadful 0-for-13 on third downs against one of the league’s best defenses. Alex Smith led the Football Team all the way back from a 21-point, second-half deficit in Week 10, but the Lions needed just 16 seconds to move into place for Matt Prater’s game-winning 59-yard field goal.
- Injuries/Developments to Follow: The Bengals played without DT Geno Atkins (personal) and RB Joe Mixon (foot) this week, but they could get both players back this week. They also lost CB Mackensie Alexander to a concussion, who will be in a race to be cleared this week. Cincinnati also faced some turmoil last week with four of their assistant coaches sitting out because of COVID-19 concerns. The Football Team had SS Deshazor Everett and LT Cornelius Lucas leave early with ankle injuries last week.
- Potential Line Movement: The Bengals have been demolished when they’ve been clearly outmanned by the Steelers and the Ravens this season. Cincinnati won’t be outmanned this week by Smith and the Football Team. The Bengals have played in one-scores games in their other seven contests this season outside of their 11-point victory over the Titans before their Week 9 bye. I have the Bengals power rated as the better team in this matchup, even with homefield advantage baked in, and Cincinnati could be in better shape this week if Atkins and Mixon can return to the lineup. I wagered on the Bengals +2 and at +105 on the moneyline, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bengals get some support later this week. Washington lost in their one try as a favorite this season at home against the Giants two weeks ago, and I have the Bengals and the Giants similarly power rated ahead of Washington. I’d wait until later this week to see if this line flips in the Bengals favor if you’re looking to back the Football Team this week.
Arizona Cardinals (6-3, 5-4 ATS) at Seattle Seahawks (6-3, 5-4)
- Opening Line: Seattle -3.5
- Recent Results: Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are the talk of the NFL after their improbable Week 10 victory over the Bills. They connected for the game-winning score on a 43-yard desperation heave for the 32-30 victory as two-point home favorites. The Seahawks are coming off their second straight disappointing performance in a 23-16 loss to the Rams as three-point road underdogs. Seattle has failed to cover a spread in four of its last five games after opening the season with a four-game ATS winning streak.
- Injuries/Developments to Follow: The Cardinals notably had S Budda Baker, CB Dre Kirkpatrick, and RB Kenyan Drake in the lineup last week after it looked like all three might miss their Week 10 showdown. The Seahawks are hopeful to get RB Chris Carson (foot) back this week after Alex Collins was forced to lead this backfield in Week 10. The Seahawks are also hoping to get C Ethan Pocic (concussion), CB Shaq Griffin (concussion), and CB Quinton Dunbar (knee) back in the lineup this week, but they’ll have a short week to get ready since this game a Thursday Night showdown.
- Potential Line Movement: The Cardinals beat the Seahawks in a 37-34 overtime thriller back in Week 7, and I’m expecting another tight contest this week in a pivotal battle for the NFC West title — the Rams are also very much in the mix. The Seahawks figure to sit around three-point favorites this week so I grabbed the hook at a reduced price (-106) and I bet the Cardinals +3.5. The Cardinals are a team that continues to trend upward and they’ve played in three straight games decided by three points or fewer compared to a Seahawks squad that’s failed to cover four out of their last five spreads. D.K. Metcalf struggled in his matchup with Patrick Peterson when these teams met in Week 7, and the Seahawks managed just 16 points last week with Metcalf struggling against Jalen Ramsey last week. I don’t think this line will get below a field goal unless we get some late news so any Seattle backers should be looking for -3s this week.
Brolley’s Early Week 11 Bets
Miami Dolphins -2.5
Arizona Cardinals +3.5
Cincinnati Bengals +2/+105
