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Welcome to the Fantasy Points staff picks! Every Thursday, our crew will pick every game straight up in this space, and our betting writer Tom Brolley will pick every game against the spread. We'll also give tiered picks for Survivor Pools and we’ll rank our picks for Confidence Pools based on our consensus selections. Be sure to head over to our Odds Board page for the latest Spreads, Moneylines, and Over/Unders found on DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, PointsBet, and Sugar House.
Staff Picks
| John Hansen | Joe Dolan | Tom Brolley | Graham Barfield | Scott Barrett | Consensus | |
| Last Week | 2-0 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Season | 180-87-1 | 181-86-1 | 183-84-1 | 183-84-1 | 176-91-1 | 182-85-1 |
| KC @ TB | TB | TB | KC | KC | KC | KC |
Super Bowl LV Prediction
John
Buccaneers 27, Chiefs 24
I picked these teams to meet in the SB in our Postseason Prediction article, and I drafted accordingly in our Staff Postseason Playoff Draft, where 13 of my 16 players drafted are on the Bucs or the Chiefs. I didn’t actually pick a winner in the prediction article, but my pick was the Chiefs. KC’s been more than fine in the playoffs, but I’ve been impressed by the Bucs defense in the postseason, so I’m now going with the Bucs. These teams are so evenly matched that I’m fairly certain the outcome of the game will come down to an unpredictable play or two, like a return TD or a random defensive score. Tampa may have to play a near-perfect game to win, and they have less of a margin for error than the Chiefs do, but I also think the Bucs are the slightly better team overall, and I think it’s pretty clear they have a little more talent. The one element that concerns me the most about my pick is how KC may play with more confidence and aggressiveness than last year’s Super Bowl, which I thought they played too conservatively (and they almost lost it). I’ll admit my confidence isn’t incredible for this pick - but it is if I’m betting this one and I can get the 3.5 points for Tampa. I also do think this one will come in just below the under.
Joe
Buccaneers 28, Chiefs 23
Sorry, Tom Brady haters. I get it, you’re sick of him, but the guy is playing at a super high level right now. He already has six Super Bowl rings. And with his seventh, he’s going to put it on the middle finger of his right hand and raise it directly north in the direction of Boston. I think two things are in Tampa’s favor in this game — the Chiefs’ offensive line is banged up, and the Chiefs don’t bother playing run defense. There’s nothing inherently wrong with the latter, but Tampa has the run game working consistently for the first time all year with Leonard Fournette playing his best ball. Meanwhile, this Bucs pass rush got after Aaron Rodgers last week to the tune of five sacks, and that is going to be the element that decides the game in my opinion. People are sick of Brady and they might soon be sick of watching the Chiefs, but these were the two teams playing the best football heading into the postseason and it has the makings of a classic.
Tom
Chiefs 28, Buccaneers 27
This game has the makings to be an all-time great Super Bowl with the best player of all-time, Tom Brady, squaring off against the one player who has the potential to one day challenge his status as the best ever in Patrick Mahomes. I’m getting a lot of Super Bowl LIV vibes leading up to Super Bowl Sunday. I could see the Buccaneers front four creating chaos early like the 49ers’ front four did last season before Mahomes eventually gets his footing and pulls the game out in the fourth quarter. Brady’s Bucs have more firepower than the 49ers did last season, and I don’t think the Chiefs are at the peak of their powers like they were heading into Super Bowl LIV — the Chiefs closed as 1.5-point favorites in Super Bowl LIV. Granted, this Buccaneers’ defense isn’t nearly as good as San Francisco’s defense was last season, but they’re a unit that is trending upward and playing its best as we head into the big game. I’m expecting the Chiefs to win but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brady hoisting his seventh Lombardi Trophy either. I see a little bit of value betting the Buccaneers at +3.5 and I’m leaning slightly under the total at 56.5 points.
Graham
Chiefs 31, Buccaneers 27
My only concern for the Chiefs in the Super Bowl is their rag-tag offensive line. Mahomes’ protection is in shambles right now, which is a massive problem against this aggressive Bucs’ front-seven. The only remaining starter that the Chiefs have healthy for the game is C Austin Reiter. Betting against the GOAT is difficult, but the Chiefs have an uncanny ability to score points whenever they want and however they want. If Mahomes stays upright, containing Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman, and Sammy Watkins will prove impossible for the Bucs’ secondary. This game is going to be high-scoring, but I’m with Tom on the under (56.5) and staying away from the spread (Bucs’ +3.5).
Scott
Chiefs 38, Buccaneers 31 Tom Brady is an unstoppable behemoth, fully backed by all of the mighty forces of evil. It’s now the Super Bowl, and winning Super Bowls is sort of his thing. Also, he’s playing at home. Meanwhile, Kansas City has serious offensive line concerns, and the team has struggled to cover the spread all year… But Kansas City is also far-and-away the best team in football, and really, it’s just that simple. So, I think the Chiefs win handily. Steve Spagnuolo holds Brady to a good-but-not-great game. Patrick Mahomes does his thing, and the Buccaneers find it impossible to stop Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce at the same time.
Tom Brolley’s ATS Picks
Check out this week’s Best Bets here.
Best Bets ATS Record: 49-48-3 (50.5%); CC: 0-2
Overall ATS Record: 142-121-5 (54.0%); CC: 0-2
Kansas City Chiefs over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+3.5)
