It’s time to see what teams were the biggest risers and fallers in the NFL futures market since our last check on April 20. The NFL held their annual draft during that time, which caused quite a bit of a movement since mid-April. I’ll be periodically checking in to see how team win totals and Super Bowl LV title odds change throughout the off-season up until kickoff in Week 1.
Remember to always shop around sportsbooks before you place any NFL futures wagers. Sportsbooks will have wildly different odds and totals based on their liabilities with different futures wagers. You can maximize your chances of winning by looking around first and finding the best odds and prices. As always, good luck with your wagers!
Post-Draft Season Win Totals and Super Bowl LV Title Odds
Teams are ordered by their Super Bowl odds. Win totals are courtesy of Betonline.ag and Super Bowl LV odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
| Team | May 6 Win Total/SB Title | April 20 Win Total/SB Title |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 11.5/+600 | 11.5/+600 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 11.5/+700 | 11.5/+700 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10.5/+1000 | 10.5/+900 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 9.5/+1200 | 9/+1600 |
| New Orleans Saints | 10.5/+1400 | 10/+1200 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9.5/+1800 | 9.5/+2200 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 9.5/+2000 | 9.5/+1800 |
| New England Patriots | 9/+2200 | 9/+2000 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 9/+2200 | 9/+2000 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 9/+2500 | 9/+2500 |
| Green Bay Packers | 9/+2800 | 9.5/+2200 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.5/+2800 | 9.5/+2800 |
| Buffalo Bills | 9/+2800 | 9/+2800 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 9/+2800 | 9/+2800 |
| Tennessee Titans | 8.5/+2800 | 8.5/+2800 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 8.5/+3300 | 8.5/+3300 |
| Cleveland Browns | 8.5/+3300 | 8.5/+3300 |
| Chicago Bears | 8.5/+4000 | 8.5/+3300 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7.5/+4000 | 7.5/+4000 |
| Denver Broncos | 7.5/+4000 | 7.5/+4000 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 7.5/+4000 | 7.5/+4000 |
| Houston Texans | 7.5/+5000 | 8/+5000 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 7.5/+5000 | 7.5/+5000 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 7.5/+6000 | 7.5/+5000 |
| Detroit Lions | 6.5/+6000 | 6.5/+6600 |
| New York Giants | 6.5/+6600 | 6.5/+6600 |
| New York Jets | 7/+6600 | 7/+7000 |
| Miami Dolphins | 6.5/+6600 | 6/+8000 |
| Carolina Panthers | 5.5/+10000 | 5.5/+8000 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 5.5/+10000 | 5.5/+10000 |
| Washington Redskins | 5.5/+10000 | 5.5/+10000 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 4.5/+15000 | 5.5/+15000 |
UPGRADES
Teams that sportsbooks are more optimistic about based on moves since April this off-season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9 to 9.5 wins, +1600 to +1200 SB odds)
Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski are the latest couple near retirement age ready to move from the Northeast down to Florida. Brady and Gronk aren’t quite ready for endless Gulf fishing trips or early-bird dinner specials as they go for a fourth Super Bowl title together in 2020. Gronk, who will turn 31 in mid-May, spent last season out of the league, which probably wasn’t the worst thing for his body after he looked noticeably slower in 2018 after nine physically taxing seasons. The Bucs may not get the consensus top TE like he was from 2011-17 — PFF graded him 90+ in each of those seasons — but he should be a major upgrade over O.J. Howard, who finished with a dismal 54.7 PFF grade last season.
Just two short months ago, the Buccaneers were +5000 to win Super Bowl LV with a win total sitting at 7.5. After landing Gronk in a trade, the Buccaneers are now tied for fourth in Super Bowl odds and fifth in win totals. They’re also now the slight favorites to win the NFC South at +105, slightly ahead of the Saints at +110, whom they also jumped in Super Bowl odds. Tampa Bay Super Bowl money has flooded the market so much that one book has a liability on the Buccaneers that’s SEVEN times higher than the next closest team in the Colts.
Dallas Cowboys (9.5 to 9.5, +2200 to +1800)
The Cowboys received near-universal praise for their 2020 draft while the Eagles, their main NFC East competition for 2020, mostly got panned for their selections of WR Jalen Reagor and QB Jalen Hurts with their first two picks. The Cowboys (+1800) jumped the Eagles (+2000) to become the team with the sixth-best odds to bring home the Lombardi Trophy this season. The Cowboys didn’t have a pressing need at wide receiver heading into the draft, but CeeDee Lamb fell into their laps. The Cowboys graded him as the #6 player on their board, and their already top-flight offense has even more talent for 2020. Dallas then had one of Greg Cosell’s favorite CBs fall to them in the second round in Alabama’s Trevon Diggs, which filled a major vacancy created when Byron Jones bolted for Miami. They also landed one of the top centers in the draft in Wisconsin’s Tyler Biadasz, who could step right into Travis Frederick’s spot after he retired in March. The Cowboys also shored up their backup quarterback situation by landing Andy Dalton to a friendly $3 million guaranteed.
Miami Dolphins (+6 to 6.5, +8000 to +6600)
The Dolphins went from being a potential 0-16 team before the start of the 2019 season to being one of the league’s top ascending organizations in less than a year. Miami’s Super Bowl LV odds continue to shrink this off-season, and its win total continues to creep up after loading up with 11 draft picks. Ryan Fitzpatrick and company ruined “Tanking for Tua” in the second half of last season, but they still landed the coveted QB prospect Tua Tagovailoa, albeit with some medical concerns now. They also loaded up on offensive and defensive line help, as well as secondary reinforcements. The AFC East is also up for grabs this season after Tom Brady’s two-decade run with the Patriots came to an end this off-season. The Dolphins are now tied with the Jets at +700 to win the AFC East, behind the clear favorites in the Pats (+125) and Bills (+145). The Dolphins still have holes heading into the 2020 season, but they could do threaten for a .500 record this season, which would’ve been unthinkable just a year ago.
Detroit Lions (6.5 to 6.5, +6600 to +6000)
The Lions left the draft with a solid haul, netting arguably the best cornerback (Jeff Okudah), the best running back (D’Andre Swift), and one of the best guards (Jonah Jackson). However, the Lions’ Super Bowl odds didn’t improve because they’re now a staggeringly better squad than they were heading into the NFL Draft. The Lions’ Super Bowl odds improved because their path to a division title got a little easier with the Packers and the Bears failing to improve their teams for the 2020 season during the draft. The Lions were listed as high as +1000 to win the NFC North in March, but they’re now down to as low as +550 at DraftKings. The NFC North projects to be the tightest race this season based on the division title odds. The division favorite Vikings (+160) and the fourth-favorite Lions are separated by just a +390 price. The next tightest division is the AFC East at +575, with the Patriots at +125 to win and the Dolphins and the Jets tied at the bottom at +700.
DOWNGRADES
Teams that sportsbooks are less optimistic about based on free agency moves and trades this off-season.
Green Bay Packers (9.5 to 9, +2200 to +2800)
The NFC North is seemingly in a race to the bottom. The Vikings traded away a pivotal offensive piece in Stefon Diggs, and they watched a few key players walk in free agency, but they’re now sitting at the top of the division odds at +160. They’ve risen to the top because the Packers are reinventing a roster that made it to the NFC Championship instead of trying to bolster it for another title run with Aaron Rodgers. They traded up for polarizing QB prospect Jordan Love at the end of the first round before selecting two-down back A.J. Dillon and H-back Josiah Deguara with their Day Two picks. Frankly, the Packers had the worst draft in recent memory, and sportsbooks responded by docking their win total by half a win and by giving them longer Super Bowl odds.
Chicago Bears (8.5 to 8.5, +3300 to +4000)
GM Ryan Pace and the Bears also can’t get out of their own way. They desperately needed a quarterback upgrade this off-season, and the Bears could’ve let a robust QB market come to them with a little patience. Instead, they came out of the gates too aggressively at the start of the new NFL year and they traded for Nick Foles, giving him $21 million guaranteed. Andy Dalton, who is a better player than Foles, became available at the beginning of May and the Cowboys snagged him to be their backup for just $3 million guaranteed. The Bears also got into a bidding war with themselves when they gave the washed-up Jimmy Graham $9 million guaranteed. The Bears then added a 10th TE to their roster during the draft when they used their first pick on Cole Kmet. Chicago’s biggest need coming into the draft was along their offensive line, and they didn’t spend a pick on the unit until the seventh round.
Houston Texans (8 to 7.5, +5000 to +5000)
The Texans didn’t have a chance to improve too much during the draft because GM/HC Bill O’Brien traded away many of their picks for the likes of Laremy Tunsil, Duke Johnson, Gareon Conley, and Brandin Cooks over the last year. The Texans had just five picks overall, including only two picks inside the top 125, but they did well to nab DT Ross Blacklock at #40 overall. QB Deshaun Watson will be without four-time All-Pro WR DeAndre Hopkins for the first time in his career, and the markets continue to tilt against the Texans this year without an end in sight. Watson and Hopkins have covered up many of O’Brien’s sins in the last three years. We’ll find out if Watson can continue to do it without a true #1 receiver this season. The Texans have reached nine or more wins in five of their six seasons under O’Brien, but sportsbooks think they’re a long shot to do it again this season.
Las Vegas Raiders (7.5 to 7.5, +5000 to +6000)
The Raiders had five picks inside the top 100, and they made seven picks before they ended their draft in the fourth round, but sportsbooks didn’t see a team that got noticeably better. Las Vegas reached for Alabama WR Henry Ruggs (12th pick) and Ohio State CB Damon Arnette (19th) in the first round before loading up on more skill players with consecutive picks in the third round — Kentucky athlete Lynn Bowden (80th) and South Carolina WR Bryan Edwards (81st).
The Raiders may have underwhelmed with their premium draft picks, but the primary reason their Super Bowl odds grew longer over the off-season was that they failed to upgrade at quarterback this off-season. The Raiders missed out on Tom Brady during free agency, and they failed to land one of the top quarterbacks in this year’s draft. They settled for Marcus Mariota on a two-year deal, which is a lateral move, at best, from Derek Carr. Sportsbooks are expecting the Raiders to wallow below mediocrity for another season under Carr, who has finished with a below .500 record in five of his six seasons — he owns a career record of 39-55 (.415 winning percentage)
Jacksonville Jaguars (5.5 to 4.5, +15000 to +15000)
The Jaguars can now claim the bottom spot in the race to the cellar for Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence. Jacksonville saw their win total drop by a full game to 4.5 wins, which is a full game lower than the next closest teams at 5.5 wins (Bengals, Redskins, and Panthers). The Jags added some top talent early in the draft by selecting CB C.J. Henderson, EDGE K’Lavon Chaisson, and WR Laviska Shenault in the first two rounds. They brought in 12 players overall, but all their selections came at the expense of trading away players like Jalen Ramsey, Calais Campbell, Nick Foles, and A.J. Bouye. GM Dave Caldwell and HC Doug Marrone have no incentive to tank since they’re both hanging on by a thread, but sportsbooks are still bracing for the Jags to bottom out this year. The Jags could also trade away Leonard Fournette and Yannick Ngakoue before the end of 2020, and it wouldn’t be surprising if Caldwell and Marrone are gone before the end of this season.
