Welcome to Fantasy Points Best Bets. This will be the main hub for our staff’s favorite NFL bets throughout the season. Our staff will give their favorite spread, total, and player prop bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers our crew has lined up for the week ahead.
Tom Brolley
Game Picks
ATS Record: 17-14-2 (+1.33 units); W7: 1-3-1 (-1.99 units)
Totals Record: 2-3 (-.95 units); W7: 0-0 (units)
Cleveland Brown (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals
I backed the Bengals getting +6.5 against the Browns back in Week 2 for our Staff Picks. Joe Burrow and his crew had no business getting the backdoor cover in that game. The Browns were clearly the better team as they owned a 3.5 yards per play advantage (7.5 to 4.0) in that contest. The Bengals failed to sack Baker Mayfield and they rank in the bottom-10 of the league in adjusted sack rate (4.9%) for the season. Cincinnati allowed Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb to run for 210 yards (6.6 YPC), and they’re still giving up the second-most yards per carry (5.1) this season. I love Burrow but this is a tough spot for him after the Bengals blew a 14-point first-quarter lead last week. After a painfully slow start, a Colts team that the Browns beat by nine points in Week 5 outscored the Bengals 31-13 in the final three quarters. Cleveland has been embarrassed in two step-up spots this year, but they’ve dominated when they’ve played against teams that they’re equal to or greater than. I’ve backed the Bengals just about every week this season, but I can only look toward the Browns in this matchup giving just a field goal. I wanted to make sure I got down on this line at -3 but I like it as long as it’s under -4 points. Risk 1.25 units at -118 to win 1.08 units (Oct. 22)
New England Patriots (-1.5, DraftKings) vs. San Francisco 49ers
I gave the 49ers a bump up and the Patriots a down up in my power ratings after decisive outcomes (both good and bad) last week. The market has had much bigger (over)reactions to those outcomes with the line crashing down throughout the week. This line sat in the 3 to 3.5 point range early in the week, which is where I would’ve made the line, but the 49ers have seen steady support since then. This line has the potential to bounce back up to the field-goal range later this week so I’m going to grab the shorter line now. I hate going against a significant line movement but I honestly love this spot for the Patriots. New England looked extremely rusty against the Broncos last week because of a lack of practices during the two weeks leading up to the game. I’m guessing Bill Belichick wasn’t pleasant to be around this week, and I’m expecting him to get a much more focused effort from his team this week against San Francisco. On the other side, the 49ers were in the exact same spot as the Patriots last week when they put together their most complete effort against the Rams on Sunday Night Football after an embarrassing loss to the Dolphins. The 49ers are in a bit of a letdown spot after their big performance late on Sunday on the West Coast as they head to the East Coast to play the Patriots. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Oct. 22).
Chicago Bears (+6, DraftKings) at Los Angeles Rams
I’ve underestimated the Bears for most of the season but this line is a bit inflated. I’d have the Rams as favorites in the 4-point range this week, and I think the line will eventually settle in that range this weekend so I’m going to take the value now. The Bears are built to play in one-score games with the way their defense is playing so far this season, and they’ve racked up a 5-1 record with every one of their games finishing within eight points. Meanwhile, the Rams have underperformed in every step-up game this season (otherwise known as games that don’t involve an NFC East team). Khalil Mack is starting to heat up after an early-season knee issue as half of Chicago’s 14 sacks have come against Tom Brady and Teddy Bridgewater the last two weeks, and Jared Goff is a quarterback that needs to be disrupted to get him off of his game. This game is tied for the lowest total of the week at 44.5 points so getting six points means a lot more in this game than getting six points in a game that’s totaled in the mid-50s. I’m expecting the Rams to have to grind out a win this week against the Bears, I would still take down to +4.5 with the Bears this week if you’re unable to grab a +6 with the Bears. Risk 1.25 units at -110 to win 1.14 units (Oct. 21).
Carolina Panthers (+7.5, DraftKings) at New Orleans Saints
I broke this game down as part of my Week 7 Opening Line Report. The Panthers have proven to be frisky underdogs and I much prefer to bet with Teddy Bridgewater when he’s in an underdog role, which he’s thrived in throughout his career. The Panthers also beat the Chargers on the road at the end of September, and that same Chargers team had multiple chances to beat the Saints as seven-point road underdogs before New Orleans won by a field goal in overtime in Week 5. Risk 1.5 units at -110 to win 1.36 units (Oct. 16).
Buffalo Bills (-11, Caesars) at New York Jets
I broke this game down as part of my Week 7 Opening Line Report. You’re crazy if you think I’m not going to continue to fade the Jets every week until they prove they can cover a spread this season. We haven’t seen a team as bad as the Jets since the Browns went winless back in 2017, but that Cleveland team at least covered four spreads during their winless season. New York is winless both straight up and against the spread through six weeks with an average margin of defeat by 18.3 points. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Oct. 16).
Player Props
Record: 60-48 (+7.53 units); W7: 11-6 (+4.37 units)
All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Carson Wentz (Phi) over .5 interceptions (+108 DraftKings) (W)
Devonta Freeman (NYG) under 54.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)
Jamaal Williams (GB) over 24.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)
Davante Adams (GB) over 83.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)
Mike Williams (LAC) over 41.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) (L)
Justin Herbert (LAC) over .5 INTs (+100, DraftKings) (L)
Josh Allen (Buf) under 280.5 passing yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)
James Conner (Pit) over 63.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)
Antonio Gibson (Was) over 48.5 rushing yards (-110, William Hill) (W)
Tyreek Hill (KC) over 59.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)
Deebo Samuel (SF) over 46.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)
Ezekiel Elliott (Dal) under 112.5 rushing and receiving yards (+125, DraftKings) (W)
D’Andre Swift (Det) over 21.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings) (L)
Josh Jacobs (LV) under 68.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)
Rob Gronkowski (TB) over 34.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM) (W)
Gabriel Davis (Buf) over 38.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) (L)
Nick Foles (Chi) over 22.5 completions (-112, DraftKings) (W)
