Best Bets: Divisional Round

January 16, 2021 1:30pm EST

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Best Bets: Divisional Round

FPTS Staff
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January 16, 2021 1:30pm EST

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Welcome to Fantasy Points Best Bets. This will be the main hub for our staff’s favorite NFL bets throughout the season. Our staff will give their favorite spread, total, and player prop bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers our crew has lined up for the week ahead.

Tom Brolley

Game Picks

Best Bets ATS Record: 49-46-3 (-2.2 units); DR: 1-2 (-1.09 units)

Overall ATS Record: 142-118-5 (54.6%); DR: 1-3 (25%)

Totals Record: 5-7 (-2.2 units)

New Orleans Saints (-3, DraftKings) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I’ve been waiting this line out to see if some -2.5s might pop up at some point but all indications are that this line is going to settle in the -3 to -3.5 point range this weekend. I’m going to lock in the Saints as three-point home favorites now in a matchup that they’ve dominated this season. My power rating and my eyes are telling me to bet on the Buccaneers, but this matchup has been an absolute nightmare for Tom Brady and company this season. Brady took a season-high three sacks in each of his first two contests against the Saints this season, and he needed 74 attempts to post 448/2 passing (6.1 YPA) with five INTs. Meanwhile, Drew Brees has nine touchdown passes with no interceptions on 97 total attempts (9.3% TD rate) in three meetings against Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers in 2019-20. The Saints have covered in eight of their last 10 games after getting their two best offensive players back last week in Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. The Saints have held five opponents to single-digit point production during their 10-game hot streak, including against the Bears last week in their 21-9 victory as 11-point home favorites. I’d only bet the Saints at -3 or under this week. Risk one unit at -109 to win .92 units (Jan. 14).

Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5 and over 55.5 points, DraftKings) vs. Cleveland Browns

I bet both the Chiefs -9.5 and over 55.5 points early in the week, and I also did a smaller parlay with them combined. I see the Chiefs closing as 10-11 point favorites later in the week and I see this total climbing north of 56 points closer to kickoff. This game should feature some fireworks like Cleveland’s last three contests against playoff-caliber offenses. They’ve played games that featured 85 combined points against the Steelers, 89 combined points against the Ravens, and 76 combined points against the Titans since the beginning of December. The Chiefs have an excellent chance to put up 35+ points against Cleveland’s shaky secondary, and the Browns’ offense has been playing well enough to put up some resistance this week.

I’m expecting a more focused effort from the Chiefs in the Division Round after they slept walked through the second half of the season at times — they covered just once in their final eight games of the regular season. Andy Reid’s teams have been excellent coming out of bye weeks despite their failed cover in a 35-31 victory against the Raiders after their Week 10 bye earlier this season. Including the playoffs, Reid’s teams are 24-5 straight up and 20-9 ATS after byes. Cleveland also needs to get healthy after their COVID-19 outbreak and after a couple of injuries. The Browns offensive line depth could be tested again this week after RT Jack Conklin (hamstring) and reserve OL Michael Dunn (calf) both picked up injuries in the Wild Card Round. They could at least get Joe Bitonio back off the COVID-19 list this week. We’ll also see the Browns handle a little success this week after they picked up the franchise’s first playoff victory since the 1994 season, which also came against the franchise’s heated rival. I’m skeptical that the Browns can answer the bell again in a much tougher matchup against the defending Super Bowl champions. I’m cool with betting the Chiefs up to -11 and betting the over up to 56 points if these lines move higher this week. Risk one unit at -111 (-9.5) to win .90 units and risk one unit at -109 (over 55.5) to win .92 units (Jan. 11).

Buffalo Bills (-2.5, BetMGM) vs. Baltimore Ravens

I see this line sitting in the -2.5 to -3 range this week, but I just don’t see this line moving much closer to a pick-em. I’m going to grab the Bills laying -2.5 early in the week to get that valuable half point just in case this line ticks upward and settles in the -3 to -3.5 point range. The Bills failed to cover against the Colts last week for the first time since Week 8 after running off eight straight ATS covers to end the regular season. Buffalo was in a position to grab the ATS victory last week before it allowed a pair of quick scores to the Colts in the fourth quarter after holding a pair of double-digit leads in the final 12 minutes. I didn’t come away impressed with Baltimore’s offense after the Wild Card Round after they muscled out just 20 points against a Titans’ defense that gave up 79 combined points to the Texans and the Packers in Weeks 16-17. The Ravens’ offense looked dead in the water until Lamar Jackson pulled out a miracle 48-yard touchdown on a third-and-9 play in which the Titans seemingly had Jackson contained in the pocket. Baltimore’s defense was certainly up to the task against Derrick Henry in the Wild Card Round, but they looked vulnerable at times defending A.J. Brown and a Titans passing attack, which lost Corey Davis early. The Bills’ biggest weakness is defending the run but they did a good job limiting Jonathan Taylor to 3.7 YPC last week. I’m comfortable betting the Bills at -3 if the -2.5s disappear this week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Jan. 11).

Player Props

Record: 164-130 (+24.33 units); DR: 5-9 (-3.29 units)

All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.

Cam Akers (LAR) over 87.5 rushing and receiving yards (-110, DraftKings) (W)
Allen Lazard (GB) under 39.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM) (L)
Mark Andrews (Bal) over 54.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)
Lamar Jackson (Bal) over .5 interceptions (+115, DraftKings) (W)
Gus Edwards (Bal) over 34.5 rushing yards (-115, BetMGM) (W)
Gabriel Davis (Buf) over 26.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)
Nick Chubb (Cle) over 12.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM) (L)
Harrison Bryant (Cle) over 10.5 receiving yards (+105, DraftKings) (L)
Donovan Peoples-Jones (Cle) under 1.5 receptions (+150, FanDuel) (W)
Austin Hooper (Cle) over 3.5 receptions (+110, BetMGM) (L)
Jared Cook (NO) over 31.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)
Emmanuel Sanders (NO) under 44.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)
Chris Godwin (TB) over 63.5 receiving yards (-112, FanDuel) (L)
Rob Gronkowski (TB) under 2.5 receptions (+130, BetMGM) (W)