Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!
AFC Championship Game
Buffalo Bills (15-3, 12-6 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (15-2, 7-10), 6:40 p.m.
Implied Team Totals: Bills 25.5, Chiefs 28.5
Spread/Total Movements: 2.5 to 3, 55 to 54
Weather: 41 degrees, 15% chance of rain, 5 mph
Bills Injuries to Watch: WR Gabriel Davis (ankle), DT Vernon Butler (quad)
Chiefs Injuries to Watch: QB Patrick Mahomes (concussion/foot), RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle/hip), CB Bashaud Breeland (concussion), WR Sammy Watkins (calf), LB Willie Gay (ankle)
Bills Trends
The Bills have an NFL-best 12 ATS victories after beating the Ravens 17-3 in the Divisional Round as 2.5-point home favorites.
The Bills have covered in nine of their last 10 games and they’ve won outright in nine of their last 10 games. Buffalo’s only loss in the last three months came on the “Hail Murray” pass against Arizona in Week 10.
The Bills are 4-1 as underdogs (3-2 outright) and 4-3 ATS on the road (5-2 outright)
Buffalo has scored 30+ points in 9-of-18 games.
Josh Allen averaged fewer than 6.0 YPA for just the third time in 18 games last week as he posted 206/1 passing on 5.6 YPA against the Ravens. His worst performance of the season came against back in Week 6 when Kansas City held Allen to a season-low 122 passing yards on 4.5 YPA. The Bills have dropped back to pass a league-high 73% of the time in the postseason, and he’s attempted 35+ passes in six of his last seven games. He’s run for exactly three yards in two of his last three games but he did run eight times for 42 yards when these teams met earlier this year.
Stefon Diggs has reached 105+ receiving yards in five of his last six games after posting 8/106/1 receiving against the Ravens last week. He’s also reached 6+ catches in 15-of-18 games this season. The Chiefs held Diggs relatively in check in Week 6 with 6/46/1 receiving on eight targets. Rashard Higgins posted 5/88 receiving on seven targets against the Chiefs last week.
John Brown rebounded from his goose egg against the Colts by posting 8/62 receiving on 11 targets against the Ravens. It didn’t hurt that Davis picked up an ankle injury early last week. Brown failed to catch any of his four targets against the Chiefs in Week 5. The Chiefs allowed the second-fewest receiving yards per game to WRs (140.3) in the regular season.
Cole Beasley is no longer on the injury report for his knee injury this week, which is a much-needed positive after he got blanked on a season-low two targets against the Ravens last week. He posted 4/45/1 receiving on seven targets in this matchup in the regular season while Jarvis Landry recorded a bizarre 7/20/1 receiving line against the Chiefs last week. Kansas City allowed the fewest receptions to WRs in the regular season (11.1).
Gabriel Davis picked up an ankle early last week, and he failed to catch any of his four targets on just 13 routes. He previously had 2+ catches in seven straight games with four touchdowns in that span. If Davis can’t play, Isaiah McKenzie could see a slight uptick in opportunities but the Bills would likely cut down on 4-WR sets.
Dawson Knox ran a route on 67.5% of Allen’s dropbacks last week with Davis picking up his injury after running a route on 56.1% of Allen’s dropbacks in the Wild Card Round. The slight uptick in usage didn’t help as he caught both of his targets for 18 yards after posting 2/5/1 receiving against the Colts the week prior. David Njoku posted 4/59 receiving on five targets last week against the Chiefs last week, and they gave up a solid nine TDs to TEs in the regular season.
Devin Singletary played on 84% of the snaps last week with Zack Moss (ankle, IR) done for the season. He may have played a lot but he posted just 7/25 rushing while catching all three of his targets for 12 yards. The Chiefs allowed 141.8 scrimmage yards per game to RBs in the regular season, but they just limited Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to a combined 107/1 from scrimmage. Singletary posted just 10/32 rushing with a 13-yard catch against the Chiefs earlier this season while Moss added just 5/10 rushing without a catch.
Chiefs Trends
The Chiefs are the only team remaining in the playoffs with a losing ATS record (7-10) after they failed to cover again last week.
Kansas City held a 16-point advantage over Cleveland at halftime, but they held on for dear life with a 22-17 victory as 7.5-point home favorites.
Kansas City has failed to cover in eight of its last nine games with its only ATS victory coming by half a point in a 32-29 victory over the Saints in Week 15.
The Chiefs haven’t won a game by more than one score since they wiped out the Jets 35-9 in Week 8 on the first day of November.
The Chiefs handed the Bills one of their three losses this season. Kansas City beat the Bills 26-17 in Week 6 as 5.5-point road favorites in a game totaled at 55 points. That game was played in rainy conditions around 51 degrees in Buffalo on Oct. 18.
The Chiefs are 6-9 ATS as a favorite (14-1 outright) and 3-6 ATS at home (7-2 outright).
Kansas City has scored 30+ points in 9-of-17 games.
Patrick Mahomes appears to be on track to play this week barring a setback from his concussion suffered last week. His bigger issue this week could be the foot injury he also picked up last week, which seemed to affect his accuracy on some routine throws and limited his mobility. Mahomes averaged 8.5 YPA with 255/1 passing and 14/1 rushing before leaving midway through the third quarter last week. He averaged 8.7 YPA with 225/2 passing and 36 rushing yards against the Bills in Week 6. Philip Rivers is the only QB to throw for multiple TDs against the Bills in the last five weeks.
Travis Kelce has posted 8+ catches in eight of his last nine games and 7+ catches in every game in that span. He ran off another 8/109/1 receiving last week against the Browns, which gave him touchdowns in five straight games. He posted 5/65/2 receiving on seven targets against the Bills earlier this season. Buffalo limited Mark Andrews to 4/28 receiving on 11 targets last week.
Tyreek Hill looked at full strength last week after a three-week break to rest his gimpy hamstring. He posted 8/110 receiving on 10 targets against the Browns and he matched a season-high with three carries for just nine yards. Hill posted a season-low 5.5 FP against the Bills in Week 6 as he has just 10/61 receiving on 14 targets in two career games against the Bills. Marquise Brown posted 4/87 receiving in this matchup last week and Tyler Huntley also missed him for a walk-in 71-yard touchdown.
Sammy Watkins is practicing early in the week so he’s trending in the right direction to play against his old team. He topped out at just 10.0 FP against the Saints in Week 15 in his final five games of the season after a six-week layoff in the middle of the year.
Mecole Hardman led these secondary Chiefs WRs with Watkins out last week, posting 4/58 receiving on 34 routes while Demarcus Robinson had just a 14-yard catch on 31 routes. Robinson led these WRs with 5/69 receiving on six targets on 34 routes in Week 6 against the Bills while Hardman failed to catch his only target on 13 routes.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is trending toward returning to the lineup this week after getting some limited practices in last week and after practicing early this week. CEH ran for a season-high 161 yards against a Bills defense that was without a couple of key pieces in Matt Milano and Trent Murphy. Edwards-Helaire is unlikely to shoulder a huge workload if he’s able to return since he hasn’t played since Week 15 because of his ankle and hip injuries. J.K. Dobbins posted 10/42 rushing and 3/51 receiving in this matchup last week.
Darrel Williams is clearly ahead of Le’Veon Bell after playing 70% of the snaps in Week 16 and 79% last week. Williams shouldered the load last week with 13/78 rushing and 4/16 receiving against the Browns compared to just 2/6 rushing for Bell. Williams figures to mix in quite a bit and he could even still lead this backfield even if CEH suits up this week.
Brolley’s Bets
*Buffalo Bills +3/+3.5 (Best Bet)
Patrick Mahomes (KC) under 15.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)
John Brown (Buf) under 4.5 receptions (Best Bet)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) under 40.5 rushing yards (-110, FanDuel)
*I placed a smaller bet on the Bills at +3 on Monday just in case Patrick Mahomes was unable to play this week. If Mahomes does play (which is looking very likely), the Chiefs will likely go off as favorites in the 3.5 to 4.5 point range. I plan on betting more on the Bills later this week if this line moves higher if it looks like Mahomes will play. Mahomes’ concussion is going to get all the headlines this week (and rightfully so) but don’t forget that his play in the Divisional Round was a bit compromised after he picked up a foot injury in the second quarter.
