Kaidon Salter is coming off a monster year, in which he averaged 31 FPG and had eight weeks in the top 10. He threw for 2,875 yards and 32 TDs while adding 1,089 rushing yards and 12 rushing TDs on the ground. He led Liberty to a 13-1 record and an appearance in the Fiesta Bowl against Oregon. He threw for 2,875 yards, 32 TDs, and only 6 interceptions. The good news? He’s got one of the easiest schedules again this year. He does lose top Receiver target CJ Daniels (transfer to LSU), but this offense is going to move the ball. Tyson Mobley transfers in from Coastal Carolina, and Liberty brings back Treon Sibley, who will help in the passing game. Quinton Cooley also returns, making this one of the best backfields in the G5. Everything points to Salter being an elite CFF QB again. You’re going to need one of the top picks if you want to roster Salter this year, it appears.
We caught a glimpse of what Byrum Brown could do in 2022. In the two games in which he got extended time, he scored seven touchdowns, throwing for 380 yards and 4 TDs while rushing for 185 yards and 3 TDs. He exploded last year, averaging 29 FPG with six top 12 weeks. He threw for 3,292 yards and 26 TDs, along with 809 rushing yards and 11 rushing TDs. The only thing holding Brown back from challenging as QB1 this coming season is a two-week stretch in which USF faces Miami and travels to Tulane. Outside of that, wheels up for Brown, a guy I’ve targeted quite a bit in the first round of drafts this year. He falls in that top tier of QBs and is one of my favorite sure things this year.
I’m not sure there is more of a sure thing than Dillon Gabriel in CFF this year. We’ve seen him be a top quarterback at UCF, transfer to Oklahoma, and continue to be a top quarterback, and now he has moved into a system that gave us top quarterback Bo Nix last year. Gabriel has thrown for 14,856 yards over 50 games and ran for over 1,000 yards in that same timeframe. Gabriel has been a mainstay in the weekly top 10 when he’s healthy for the last five seasons. Throw in the fact that Tez Johnson, Evan Stewart (transfer from Texas A&M), Gary Bryant Jr., and a slew of other talented wideouts (Jordan James at RB, too!) will be on the receiving end of his passes, and it doesn’t look like he’ll be slowing down any this season. He is a top-tier QB whom I think people are bored of, because he has been there for five years. He has been a great value in some drafts. Keep your eyes out for Gabriel.
If you have been listening to CFF All Access, it will be no surprise that Jaxson Dart is so high in our rankings. If you haven’t been listening… well, we like Jaxson Dart. A lot! It’s become a race to get him in these best ball drafts this summer, as we’ve seen his stock go from Rd 10 to Rd 4 as of late. Last year, he threw for 3,364 yards, 23 TDs, and only five interceptions. He also gave us 391 rushing yards and 8 rushing touchdowns. He averaged 23.1 FPG and gave us five weeks in the top 30. Two of those were top 5. Tre Harris, Jordan Watkins, and Caden Prieskorn are back, and Antwane Wells transfers in to bolster that receiving corps. Ole Miss lost stud RB Quinshon Judkins, which I think actually improves Dart’s value. I’m not sure what we can expect from the run game, but it definitely looks like the strength is in the pass game, and Dart gives us value on the ground as well. Also, he has some very favorable matchups, especially the last two weeks of the year when you are trying to win a championship — he gets Florida and Mississippi State.
I’m not sure anyone expected Jordan McCloud to be a top CFF QB last year. Heck, he wasn’t even the day 1 starter at JMU last season. We’ve seen him jump from USF to Arizona to James Madison and now Texas State. While he was at USF he showed some flashes but never really put it together. He transferred to Arizona and didn’t get to see much action while suited up there. But then last year, he came into the high-powered JMU offense (the same one that made Todd Centeio relevant in CFF; we should’ve known!) and threw for 3,657 yards, 35 TDs (!) and added 276 yards on the ground, and eight rushing TDs… for 43 total touchdowns. He’s transferring once again, and this time, he’ll be paired up with HC GJ Kinne and OC Mack Leftwich at Texas State. Throw in the fact that he’ll be throwing to two of the best Sunbelt receivers in Joey Hobert and Kole Wilson, and this just feels like a recipe for success.
We have limited tape on Nico Iamaleava at Tennessee so far. What we do have is an encouraging performance against Iowa in the bowl game last year. I don’t typically like to project too much on one game, especially a bowl game, but we already know that this system can give us a valuable quarterback, especially if he can run. And guess what? Nico can run. He’s the first guy on our list for whom we don’t have great historicals so it’s a lot of projection, but after a four-touchdown performance (3 rushing, 1 passing) against a really good Iowa defense, this has us excited. His schedule won’t be a breeze for a young quarterback, though. NC State, Alabama, Kentucky, and Georgia are all on the schedule and did well against QBs last year in CFF. The last two weeks look nice, though — UTEP and Vandy. If you can get to those championship weeks, Nico could be the guy you want in your lineup.
I’m not sure anyone was expecting Garrett Greene to be one of the top CFF quarterbacks last season, but after four top-10 finishes and a handful of other solid weeks, he was exactly that, averaging 26.5 points a game, thanks to a lot of production on the ground. He was third on the Mountaineers in rushing, going for 772 yards, but also led the team in rushing touchdowns at 13. He also threw for 2,406 yards, 16 touchdowns, and only four interceptions. The top two rushers are back in Jahiem White and CJ Donaldson, but I still expect Greene to have a prominent role in the run game. We can bake in some regression, but he’s a dual-threat guy for us still. The key is to get through a rough early stretch. WVU faces Penn St. to start the year and has a stretch in which they face Iowa St, Kansas St, and Arizona, then a bye, which could prove challenging. Otherwise, there are some potential high-value games for Greene.
Jalen Milroe was a top 30 QB eight times last year. And while he had a couple of rough outings, overall he was one of the more consistent QBs over the course of the year. He ended up throwing for 2,834 yards, 23 touchdowns, and only six interceptions. He ran for 531 yards and 12 touchdowns. Dual threat! He’s got a new coach and system, though. Kalen DeBoer comes over from Washington. We’ve seen guys like Michael Penix and Jake Haener really excel in his system, albeit with a different style of QB. That said, we have seen a dual-threat have success in this system — Fresno State QB Marcus McMaryion finished as a top 15 QB in 2018. The schedule is tough, but Milroe is battle-tested and has some weapons around him to make this Alabama offense go.
Oklahoma makes the move from the Big 12 to the SEC, and Jackson Arnold is going to be the guy who leads them through the first season in uncharted waters. He saw action in only six games last year, and most of that was limited while he was backing up Dillon Gabriel. He played the bowl game against Arizona, throwing for 361 yards and two touchdowns. But he also threw three picks that game. He added 38 rushing yards. He has some great weapons to throw to this year. Nic Anderson, Jalil Farooq, and Andrel Anthony all return (along with some others), and they brought in Deion Burks from Purdue to help. By all accounts, he had a strong spring, has a good arm, and can be a physical runner. He’ll need to perform at a high level to compete with some of these defenses in the SEC, but has the talent and system to be a top CFF QB.
Seth Henigan is a guy who projects so well. He brings so much value in the pass and run game. He finished as QB10 last year, throwing for 3,880 yards, 32 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. He also ran for 274 yards and 5 touchdowns. His top two pass catchers return in Roc Taylor and DeMeer Blankumsee, along with TE Anthony Landphere. They also brought in RB Mario Anderson (who has seen his stock climb) which is only going to help keep this offense explosive and efficient. Henigan is another guy who’s been around for a while and is kind of like Dillon Gabriel — the shine has worn off a bit, but he’s still such a valuable guy for CFF. He’s a guy who slips in some drafts and is such a great value at times. His early season schedule includes Troy, Florida, and Navy, which were all top 40 defenses against QBs last year, but it is pretty smooth sailing after that. He has one of the easiest schedules for the top 15 QBs. The playoffs aren’t advantageous, though — with a bye week and Tulane for the last two weeks of the season, you need some insurance for him.
With Will Howard hitting the portal and transferring to Ohio State, it is now the Avery Johnson show in Manhattan. He was limited in his action last year, and while the yardage was never impressive in either game, he did finish as QB1 against Texas Tech thanks to his five rushing-touchdown performance. His weakness is the passing game. He never threw for over 100 yards last year in a game, but we also know that the real value in this system for QBs comes when they can run the ball. This is again based more on a projection than performance, but we like the QB in this system, and the schedule is favorable. The Big 12 lost Texas and Oklahoma which means the SOS gets easier for all teams. The Wildcats face seven teams who ranked in the bottom third of CFB against QBs last year.
It’s hard to envision a better fit across the transfer portal in college football than Jefferson’s move to UCF this year. The majority thought Jefferson was in for a big year last year after a solid 2022 season with Arkansas. He ended up throwing for 2,107 yards and 19 touchdowns. The two seasons prior, he threw for 2,648-24-5 and 2,676,21-4. His rushing production also fell off. He still ran for 447 yards but only two touchdowns. It was a disappointment compared to expectations. But this move to UCF is rejuvenating, and you are seeing him pop up in top-15 rankings. The schedule is QB friendly, with only a few possible hiccups. One thing that is concerning: we haven’t had a top-20 QB from Gus Malzahn since 2014. Two years ago, John Rhys Plumlee finished as QB25 (a bit injury-riddled through the season), and we did have a Bo Nix top-25 season. But that has been about the ceiling. The dual threat guys thrive a lot more in college fantasy, but it would need to be a bit of an outlier for him to finish close to the top 10. Add in the fact that UCF also added Peny Boone, who could take some goal-line rushes away from Jefferson and RJ Harvey.
We’ve seen nothing but 3,000 yard seasons from Shedeur Sanders. In 2021, he went for 3,231-30-8. In 2022, he went for 3,732-40-6, and then last year, during his first season in FBS, he went for 3,230-27-3 at Colorado. His first season at Jackson State was very similar statistically to his first at CU. Do we see the same jump as JSU between years 1 and 2? We know Deion wants his kid to be a high draft pick, so it feels like he will be the showcase of the offense again. But everyone has seen the stats. He was sacked 52 times. That has to improve. That can partly be blamed on the OL, but there were also times when he just held on to the ball way too long. But this offense is going to throw the ball and has one of the best receiving corps in the Big 12. Travis Hunter and Jimmy Horn return, and the Buffs brought in Will Sheppard from Vandy and LaJohntay Wester from FAU. This is just a loaded receiver room.
Cam Ward is getting a fresh start after a bit of an up-and-down journey at Washington State. He is a guy who looked like the perfect fit for that system coming out of Incarnate Word, but he just never lived up to the expectations. The hope is a fresh start is what he needed. He still threw for 3,735 yards and 25 touchdowns last year, so it wasn’t like he was a total bust. He gave us seven weeks as a top-20 QB, which is excellent. It was just that some of those other weeks were rough from a fantasy perspective. He’s now at Miami with OC Shannon Dawson, top returning WR Xavier Restrepo, along with Jacolby George, transfers Sam Brown and RB Damien Martinez, and top young guys JoJo Trader and Nathaniel Joseph. The offense has weapons, and this schedule is really nice. The Canes face a tough Virginia Tech D as well as Florida State and Louisville, who were both really good against QBs. But they get a lot of bottom defenses, especially at the end of the year.
In 2022, Chandler Morris was named the starter at TCU before missing most of the season due to injury. But even if he hadn’t been injured, his performance was just not impressive. Fast forward a year to 2023, and he is once again named the starter and once again it just never seemed to click out there. Josh Hoover came in and ended up looking better in the passing game. So Morris transferred to North Texas. This feels like such a better fit. Morris can have value in the run game, and we saw what coach Eric Morris was able to do with Chandler Rogers last year (a top 20 QB). A step down in competition should help as well. The schedule isn’t too daunting. The Mean Green get Army, Tulane, South Alabama, and Wyoming, who have all been solid against QBs, but the rest looks very manageable from a CFF perspective. He also has Damon Ward, Landon Sides, and DT Sheffield to throw passes to, which is a great receiving corps at this level.
It’s been discussed a lot, but the biggest thing going against King this season is a tough schedule — especially down the stretch, when the Yellow Jackets will face Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Miami, NC State, and Georgia. Woof. They also have three byes. But there are things to really like here as well. The A&M transfer threw for 2,842 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions last year. The value really came in the run game, though. He ran for 737 yards and 10 touchdowns, putting him over the 35-touchdown mark on the season, which is a great benchmark for a top CFF QB. King has his top two receivers back in Eric Singleton and Malik Rutherford, along with another receiving threat in RB Jamal Haynes. He’s a guy who will have good value, especially early in the season. You just might need some insurance for the back half of the season.
As of this writing, Will Howard hasn’t yet been named the starter for Ohio State — it seems like a true QB competition this spring between Howard, Devin Brown, and incoming freshman Julian Sayin. This is an interesting transfer spot for Howard. Last year was statistically his best season, throwing for 2,643 yards, 24 TDs, and 10 interceptions. It was also the first season (in 4) that he completed over 60% of his passes. He ran for 351 yards and nine touchdowns last year as well. He now moves into that Ryan Day/Chip Kelly offense. He has Emeka Egbuka, Carnell Tate, and Brandon Inniss from last year's Buckeye squad, while freshman Jeremiah Smith was also getting some hype. The problem, though, in this offense is going to be the run game. The Bucks bring back TreVeyon Henderson and brought in top RB transfer Quinshon Judkins from Ole Miss. This is one of the best running back tandems in college football. How much will that take value away from Howard this season? Proceed with caution, though historically, both systems (Day and Kelly) have given us plenty of top 15 QBs.
It’s hard to figure out how to value Castellanos. On one hand, you have a guy who ran for 1,113 yards on 215 attempts and 13 rushing touchdowns while adding 2248-15-14 in the passing game. Any time you have a QB who surpasses 1,000 rushing yards, it’s money in CFF. He’s a playmaking athlete. On the other hand, he completed only 57% of his passes and threw only one less interception than TD last year. He’s in a new offense under Bill O’Brien, who did well with a talented roster at Alabama and future first-rounder Bryce Young. But that isn’t Castellanos, and I’m curious to see how he’ll perform in this system. Obviously, the rushing upside puts him on this list as a top QB coming into the fall, but there are a few questions about what he looks like in this new offense. O’Brien has him thinking less about running (where his value comes from) and thinking more about staying in the pocket. He’ll still run, but it doesn’t sound like we can expect the same type of year from him. His spring game stats were 13-29, 127-3-1 passing, and 5-30-1 rushing. On the flip side, incoming transfer Grayson James was more consistent going 21-29, 228-2-1. That’s something to monitor, although Castellanos has to be the favorite.
Cook took a nice step forward last year in this Missouri offense. He had a stat line of 3,317-21-6, compared to 2,739-14-7 in 2022. From a CFF perspective, you could consistently count on him to get you around 25 points a game in 2023. He did dip a bit against some of the better SEC defenses but was still one of the most consistent QBs. He gives us a high floor but a limited ceiling. He’s not going to be a guy who consistently finishes in the top 10, but he is a really solid QB2/QB3 on a roster. His schedule isn’t too tough either. The Tigers miss Georgia and Tennessee this year and have two advantageous matchups to end the year against Mississippi State and Arkansas. He’s a guy you can ride as your QB2/3 and get some good value in the playoffs. He also has really good weapons around him in an offense that has seen the points per game jump with Cook as QB. He’ll be throwing to top wide receiver Luther Burden along with talented guys like Theo Wease, Mookie Cooper, and spring game standout Josh Manning.
The problem for Daniels is obvious — we have never gotten a full season from him. In 2022, he played in nine games in which he threw for 2014 yards, 18 TDs, and only four interceptions. He also added 425 yards on the ground and seven rushing touchdowns. His ceiling is high — 40 points. He did that three times in 2022. But his floor can be low. Twice, he scored 10 or fewer. And five times total, he was under 20. That boom/bust potential, plus injury concerns, makes him a fringe top-25 QB. He has the talent to be a top QB, but it’s hard to look past the fact that, in his four total seasons, he has played in only 25 games. I think we all like the fact that he can have value in the run game, and this offense under Lance Leipold has gone from 20 points a game to 35. But the injuries and the fact that stud OC Andy Kotelnicki is now at Penn State leave him as a fringe top-25 guy.
Drones took over the starting job at Virginia Tech in Week 3 last season and ended the year throwing for 2,084 yards, 17 touchdowns, and only three interceptions. He also had 66 rush attempts for 818 yards and five touchdowns. When you remove the games in which he didn’t start or take many snaps, he ended up averaging just under 22 points a game. He finished as a top 30 QB five times over the last 10 games. It justifies a QB2 ranking, but we have seen him go early in drafts as a QB1. While there is really good rushing upside from him, his ceiling wasn’t at an elite level last year (only breaking 30 points twice) and he had a 2-point game against Lousiville. He did end the season really strong, scoring no fewer than 25 points a game, and he is starting to look like a guy who falls into that "consistent QB" range you’d like as a QB2. His floor will be higher this year (no more 2-point games), but the ceiling is not quite what you expect from an elite top-10 guy. That said, he’ll likely return value if his receivers stay healthy. Ali Jennings, Da’Quan Felton, and Jaylin Lane are three guys who have flashed, and his backfield mate Bhayshul Tuten had a breakout year himself last year. HC Brent Pry has this program moving in the right direction, as OC Tyler Bowen saw this offense go from 19 points a game to 29.5 last season.
Aguilar fits the profile of a CFF QB2 as someone who has shown consistency. He’s a guy with a high floor (like Brady Cook). In his first season at App State, he went 3757-33-10 in the passing game and 81-249-3 in the run game. He finished the year with nine games of at least 3 total touchdowns. He scored under 20 points only one time (against Wyoming) and finished as a top 30 QB eight times. While that may not seem like much, if you can pair him with one of our top 10 QBs who has a high ceiling, you could be looking at a "bustless" QB position. App State will face Clemson in Week 2 this upcoming year, which could be a sit week, but the schedule really lines up for him after that, especially toward the end of the season, when you could really be looking for consistency.
Stone was a highly-rated guy out of high school and stuck with SMU even after some bigger schools came calling. He had a solid season last year, throwing for 3,197 yards, 28 touchdowns, and six interceptions. He added 198 yards on the ground with four rushing touchdowns. Stone was a bit inconsistent at times from a CFF value perspective, but he did give us seven weeks as a top-30 QB and ended up scoring 23.2 FPG. First, The Good. He starts off against an FCS school, BYU, and TCU, then ends the year against Boston College, Virginia, and Cal. Points might be a little bit harder to come by in the middle of the season, but his season is bookended by some very appealing CFF matchups. But now… the bad. He has three byes (as opposed to two for most all other teams), and SMU is moving to the ACC. While this doesn’t mean a juggernaut schedule, it is a bump up in competition.
McCall is back! After his breakout freshman season in 2020 (2488-26-3 passing, 111-569-7 rushing), we saw a decline in his fantasy production. He broke 20 points only two times last year before a head injury cut his season short. The biggest dip came in the rushing category. We saw his attempts and YPC drop each season. So why is he back on the fantasy radar? Robert Anae. Anae is one of the best playcallers for QBs in fantasy, and his offenses typically score points. We did see a bit of a dip last year from Anae in his first year at NC State, but they actively targeted McCall in the portal. He feels like a perfect fit in the system. They also brought in some other transfers to help out this offense. KC Concepcion is back after a breakout freshman year, and the Wolfpack were able to bring in WR Noah Rogers from Ohio State, WR Wesley Grimes from Wake Forest, and top TE Justin Joly from UConn. McCall had a solid spring and looked really good in the spring game. We should see some upside with his rushing ability, as well. After a couple of early season tests with Tennessee and Georgia, it should be pretty smooth sailing for this offense and McCall.
USC and Lincoln Riley opted to bring in UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava to add depth and competition to this QB room. And the spring game reports weren’t glowing for Moss. In fact, our own Eric Froton was at the spring game and came away unimpressed. All that being said, head coach Lincoln Riley endorsed Moss as his likely starter after the scrimmage. The same Riley who has given us a top 12 QB every season over the last 10 years… except in 2021, when Caleb Williams took over QB1 midway through the season. So that is why we couldn’t leave Miller Moss off a list like this. Confidence levels should not be high, however. Riley did talk about how Moss practiced at a really high level this spring, and he did throw for 372 yards and six touchdowns against Louisville in the bowl game last season. We’re ranking him far closer to QB25 than QB12, but this could turn out to be a steal in drafts, as Moss is starting to drop after that spring game performance.
